Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

ChattaTNVol

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OU is #11 in their preseason ranking last I saw. Plus a road game. Almost a thousand miles to travel (-1 epa). They have also recruited very well recently. Better than they did leading up to our 14/15 matchups, for comparison. All to say, I think that prediction is fairly in line with their UF, UGA, Bama ones.

But I wonder if/when they will discount road games (to a degree). No fans has to take away a good bit of the home field advantage. There's still an advantage to being in a comfortable, familiar stadium and field, plus not having travel lag. But no fans should be a 50%+ discount on home field advantage jmo.
I would just go with ESPN hates us -

With their latest victory, a 30-7 triumph over the UAB Blazers on November 2, the Volunteers pulled to within two games of bowl eligibility. In order to qualify for the postseason for the first time since the 2016 season, Tennessee will need to come out on top in two of their three remaining games.

On Sunday, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) released their updated odds for those games:
  • Nov. 9 at Kentucky (42.7-percent)
  • Nov. 23 at Missouri (37.2-percent)
  • Nov. 30 vs. Vanderbilt (87.2-percent)
Here’s a brief description of how FPI works:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance moving forward. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI, results to date and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.​
While the FPI is projecting the Volunteers to fall one win short of a bowl game, the team has three chances left to exceed last season’s mark of 2-6 in SEC play.

Their first attempt to prove the FPI wrong, redshirt senior Jauan Jennings and the Volunteers will travel to Kroger Field to battle the Kentucky Wildcats (4-4) on Saturday at 7:30PM ET on the SEC Network.
 

lfvol

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It’s hard to believe anything being reported with all the misinformation the last few months. Reports of false positives, duplicated reporting, inconsistent test results, etc.... The virus is real but the severity and hysteria are a sham IMO.
Hospital ICU capacity, actual reports from the leaders in the healthcare systems and percentage of positive test results are not very debatable. Neither are deaths but those will lag. The problem Is real in Phoenix and Houston at this point. South FL and Austin are concerning. Positive Tests are double digit all the way to low 20s. By contrast, areas that were seeded earlier and took aggressive actions are low. As of two days ago Chicago was under 3%. NYC is low. Positive rates need to be single digit. Don’t see how anyone could call it a sham.
 
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Devo182

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ESPN brought Bill Connelly and his S&P+ analysis approach into their tent last year. When they first issued the preseason FPI for this year they had us at #19 and Kentucky at #33 and South Carolina at #34.

Preseason college football FPI breakdown

Then they huddled up and came up with a new updated approach to producing their FPI:



Breaking down the updated 2020 FPI college football rankings

I'm excited about Eric Gray too. The thing is though that he rushed 101 times last year but 25 of those times were against the #115 nationally ranked run defense of Vanderbilt. That performance generated a lot of buzz but the other 76 rushes he had on the season netted around 3.86 yards per attempt.

So the new version of FPI is sort of trying to measure quality of performance. In the old version we got credit for having a returning quarterback. In the new version the FPI assumes that quarterback is likely Guarantano and based of his historical performance that's not likely to be considered that much of a positive, until he demonstrates otherwise. So essentially FPI now apparently goes into the weeds and looks at the individual players and their historical performance or based on new incoming talent, expected performance, instead of just looking at the position in a generic sense.

On this almost everyone seems to agree, we should have one of the best offensive lines not just in the conference but in the entire country. Many folks rightly believe that will help both our running game and our passing game, assuming we can field a sufficient number of SEC caliber receivers.

If we are 4-0 after the Florida game and look like a decent football team, perceptions, including FPI, of our quality as a football team will vastly improve. jmo.

Nitpick: We lost Callaway but gained Calloway.
Good points about Bill C. He is bringing granularity and specifics...that his addition hurts our prediction...I do not like. Insofar as I trust him more than ESPN.
 

bignewt

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volbeast33

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Hospital ICU capacity, actual reports from the leaders in the healthcare systems and percentage of positive test results are not very debatable. Neither are deaths but those will lag. The problem Is real in Phoenix and Houston at this point. South FL and Austin are concerning. Positive Tests are double digit all the way to low 20s. By contrast, areas that were seeded earlier and took aggressive actions are low. As of two days ago Chicago was under 3%. NYC is low. Positive rates needs to be single digit. Don’t see how anyone could call it a sham.
I don’t really believe it is as bad as they are saying it is
 
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Hospital ICU capacity, actual reports from the leaders in the healthcare systems and percentage of positive test results are not very debatable. Neither are deaths but those will lag. The problem Is real in Phoenix and Houston at this point. South FL and Austin are concerning. Positive Tests are double digit all the way to low 20s. By contrast, areas that were seeded earlier and took aggressive actions are low. As of two days ago Chicago was under 3%. NYC is low. Positive rates need to be single digit. Don’t see how anyone could call it a sham.
Don’t believe the “hospital capacity” fear. It’s fine.
 

Vol423

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Don’t believe the “hospital capacity” fear. It’s fine.
It might be fine in Tennessee right now. It is not fine in Arizona and some other states, and it is going in the wrong direction. They are beginning to discuss closing Arizona hospitals to elective procedures again. When they did this before, it was not necessary because there were very few cases in Arizona. Now, it is likely going to become necessary soon. 49% of total cases and 22.5% of hospitalizations in Arizona are now in the 20-44 age group. They had closed one hospital in Arizona during the last few years. They have been prepping that hospital since March to serve as a backup when the other hospitals reach their capacity. Also, PCR test results (active virus) in the state of Arizona have yielded 19% to 21% positive results for the last 3 weeks.
 

bignewt

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It might be fine in Tennessee right now. It is not fine in Arizona and some other states, and it is going in the wrong direction. They are beginning to discuss closing Arizona hospitals to elective procedures again. When they did this before, it was not necessary because there were very few cases in Arizona. Now, it is likely going to become necessary soon. 49% of total cases and 22.5% of hospitalizations in Arizona are now in the 20-44 age group. They had closed one hospital in Arizona during the last few years. They have been prepping that hospital since March to serve as a backup when the other hospitals reach their capacity. Also, PCR test results (active virus) in the state of Arizona have yielded 19% to 21% positive results for the last 3 weeks.
It has to spike and then it will disappear. How do we not know this yet?
 

volbeast33

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You aren’t alone. Not everything is subjective though.
I work in healthcare...... 2 things I have seen..... one people have tested positive for months in a row without a single symptom..... two: some of these hospital numbers are misreported.... for example some hospital icus run between high 80-100 % capacity at all times.... the report will come out that icu is near capacity.... they fail to mention that it is always near capacity and less than 20% is covid patients.
 

GojiraVol17

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This defeatist attitude and spirit is what’s gonna get us all killed or starve to death. Rolling over and waving the white flag literally will do nothing for anyone. We’re gonna have to learn to cope and live with this thing until a viable vaccine and/or treatment is created. Y’all need to cheer up and look towards heaven more. I couldn’t imagine being so miserable that all I could discuss is all that’s wrong in the world. Pull yourselves up by your bootstraps & let’s whup this thing like it deserves & show Satan that today is NOT the day.
 
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It might be fine in Tennessee right now. It is not fine in Arizona and some other states, and it is going in the wrong direction. They are beginning to discuss closing Arizona hospitals to elective procedures again. When they did this before, it was not necessary because there were very few cases in Arizona. Now, it is likely going to become necessary soon. 49% of total cases and 22.5% of hospitalizations in Arizona are now in the 20-44 age group. They had closed one hospital in Arizona during the last few years. They have been prepping that hospital since March to serve as a backup when the other hospitals reach their capacity. Also, PCR test results (active virus) in the state of Arizona have yielded 19% to 21% positive results for the last 3 weeks.
Yea they also made sure every news outlet was available to photograph the beds they set up in Vanderbilt’s parking garage. Empty. USS COMFORT. Empty. Houston hospital rep said they always operate near capacity. That’s by design and they have no problem getting more beds. No problem. I’ve visited some ERs during March around Nashville. Empty. Fear fear fear. Old folks are dying because they’re stocking positives back in nursing homes. We’ve shown if needed we can, and did, flatten the curve. We knew this spike would happen. And we will be fine.
 

GojiraVol17

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Yea they also made sure every news outlet was available to photograph the beds they set up in Vanderbilt’s parking garage. Empty. USS COMFORT. Empty. Houston hospital rep said they always operate near capacity. That’s by design and they have no problem getting more beds. No problem. I’ve visited some ERs during March around Nashville. Empty. Fear fear fear. Old folks are dying because they’re stocking positives back in nursing homes. We’ve shown if needed we can, and did, flatten the curve. We knew this spike would happen. And we will be fine.
Get this man a cookie and medal. 👍
 

VolGee4

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Yea they also made sure every news outlet was available to photograph the beds they set up in Vanderbilt’s parking garage. Empty. USS COMFORT. Empty. Houston hospital rep said they always operate near capacity. That’s by design and they have no problem getting more beds. No problem. I’ve visited some ERs during March around Nashville. Empty. Fear fear fear. Old folks are dying because they’re stocking positives back in nursing homes. We’ve shown if needed we can, and did, flatten the curve. We knew this spike would happen. And we will be fine.
Shocker that a hospital rep said that people need to continue to come to the ER.

I think the point of it all is that hospitalizations have increased yet capacity is still fine. I can give you an anecdotal story of my colleague in a busy ER last week for nothing related to Covid-19. Put her in the hospital for 3 days. But no one cares, and it's just one ER in the entire state.
 
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zhangliao04

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I thought he was decent. Offensive system was poor. Luke Doty is another stud coming in for them. All said, a couple of young QBs + new OC + pandemic = lol.

So glad to have 2nd year Chaney and 5th year anybody at QB, plus a run game/monster OL to lean on. Experience and familiarity will win out this year. Young stud QBs and fancy complicated pass games will take a backseat for just one year.
There is no denying the credibility of Bobo (for now). Has a lot of good SEC QBs on his resume while at UGA for 14 years. However, I just don't see how even he will get a sophomore QB who had a pretty meh first year to turn into a staple of their offense. And other than Shi Smith and Caleb Kinlaw I'm blanking of weapons. He has his work cut out for him.
 

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