Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#119,678
#119,678
OrangenSC said:
I agree, but again that’s precisely the type of calculating people (note I didn’t say experts, whoever that may be with this) have been doing to come up with numbers like 2 or 2.2 million Americans dead.
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Using estimates, sure, but they are at least attempting consistency from one logical point to another. These guys went from "this apple is red" to "that tree has fungus".

Just as an extreme, simple example. Let's say your household of 4 happened to run face first into the virus. 2 are infected. 1 shows sympoms. Your prevalence rate is 50%. Your actual infected to those with symptoms is 2:1. Now, extrapolate this to all of TN with, say, 6 million people and let's say 1,000 cases right now. Still in the early stages. Does TN have closer to 3 million infected or 2,000? They would say 3 million merely due to total population * estimated relavence rate. If TN had 0 cases, their answer would still be 3m based on their prior assumption.

Now, the 2:1 is only valid if all with symptoms got tested. Clearly that isn't true, so I'm sure it is quite higher and they could have gone into that rather than jumping off the deep end with a cannonball.
 
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#119,679
#119,679
Batman1948 said:
Those Flu numbers are probably for an entire year. The Covid-19 numbers are for roughly 2 months and it's multiplying in big numbers every day. At this rate, Covid could probably surpass the Flu numbers for the year.
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Sort of. A “year” for the flu is typically about 13 weeks. That is, flu season typically lasts about 13 weeks each year.
 
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#119,683
#119,683
OrangenSC said:
Sort of. A “year” for the flu is typically about 13 weeks. That is, flu season typically lasts about 13 weeks each year.
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But even at that they still aren't relevant comparisons. Flu is already widely disseminated and the annual spread is driven by weakness in established immunity to the strains dominant in that year/region. C-19 will take months to years to establish the same distribution, and even longer if it ends up being seasonal. We'll be analyzing this for years, and even then there will still be disagreements as to what actually happened.
 
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#119,689
#119,689
franklinpence said:
People can be trash. I second @SSVol Thanks for continuing to deal with folks.
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Not trashing on any group in particular, but the worst group, that I have experienced, has been coffee drinkers old folk.
They complain more and have the harshest language.

aka @Glitch and @BaldBiker
 
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#119,693
#119,693
WriterVol said:
I feel that mentioning the phrase flatten the curve is a good reminder. There are a ton of unknowns with this thing, but flattening the curve is what us regular folks can do. Slow this thing down and give the medical systems a chance.

I fear New York's curve isn't going to be near flat enough. I just hope they are the anomaly and not the precursor. It keeps looking worse up there.
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I thought they were straightening the curves. It’s the hills they were flattening.

Maybe I’m thinking of something else.
 
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#119,699
#119,699
pismonque said:
I thought they were straightening the curves. It’s the hills they were flattening.

Maybe I’m thinking of something else.
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pismonque said:
I thought they were straightening the curves. It’s the hills they were flattening.

Maybe I’m thinking of something else.
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Your probably thinking of Daisy
1585269247520.gif
 
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