Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

SSVol

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It always comes back to two numbers: R0 and mortality. If you believe that R0 is big and mortality is low, then very few people will die and it will be over soon. If you believe R0 is lower and mortality is higher, it will be more dead over a longer period. If you believe R0 is high and mortality is high, the system will be overwhelmed and even more will die. Social distancing lowers R0, and is absolutely critical if mortality and R0 is high.

Most of these guys claiming it's no big deal are starting with the (unproven) assumption that there are vastly more people carrying it than have been confirmed, and most are asymptomatic. If that ends up being true, this was a big nothing. If that is false, easing restrictions too soon is gonna kill a lot of people. The truth is that nobody really knows, and until there is a widely available test that will show evidence of prior infection, we can't know.

The part I still find scary is that a fair number of doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers have died from this. That doesn't sound like nothing to me. Additionally, Korea was big into slowing growth by testing, which I assume is still the policy, and their mortality is now over 1.4%. That is a frightening number, if true.
 
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It always comes back to two numbers: R0 and mortality. If you believe that R0 is big and mortality is low, then very few people will die and it will be over soon. If you believe R0 is lower and mortality is higher, it will be more dead over a longer period. If you believe R0 is high and mortality is high, the system will be overwhelmed and even more will die. Social distancing lowers R0, and is absolutely critical if mortality and R0 is high.

Most of these guys claiming it's no big deal are starting with the (unproven) assumption that there are vastly more people carrying it than have been confirmed, and most are asymptomatic. If that ends up being true, this was a big nothing. If that is false, easing restrictions too soon is gonna kill a lot of people. The truth is that nobody really knows, and until there is a widely available test that will show evidence of prior infection, we can't know.

The part I still find scary is that a fair number of doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers have died from this. That doesn't sound like nothing to me. Additionally, Korea was big into slowing growth by testing, which I assume is still the policy, and their mortality is now over 1.4%. That is a frightening number, if true.
A fair number. Please share the number. Fear porn
 

bcmbvol

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It always comes back to two numbers: R0 and mortality. If you believe that R0 is big and mortality is low, then very few people will die and it will be over soon. If you believe R0 is lower and mortality is higher, it will be more dead over a longer period. If you believe R0 is high and mortality is high, the system will be overwhelmed and even more will die. Social distancing lowers R0, and is absolutely critical if mortality and R0 is high.

Most of these guys claiming it's no big deal are starting with the (unproven) assumption that there are vastly more people carrying it than have been confirmed, and most are asymptomatic. If that ends up being true, this was a big nothing. If that is false, easing restrictions too soon is gonna kill a lot of people. The truth is that nobody really knows, and until there is a widely available test that will show evidence of prior infection, we can't know.

The part I still find scary is that a fair number of doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers have died from this. That doesn't sound like nothing to me. Additionally, Korea was big into slowing growth by testing, which I assume is still the policy, and their mortality is now over 1.4%. That is a frightening number, if true.
Also an unproven assumption
 
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SSVol

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Sorry, the article I saw was a few days old. It's now 33 with over 5000 infections.
And while not intending to traffic in "fear porn", it bears mention that it takes as long as 8 weeks from onset before it resolves as a death or a cure. So the mortality number lags quite a while. That's what's happening in Korea. They were at 0.7% early, but as the new cases have slowed and existing cases have resolved, that number has steadily increased up to 1.4% now.

And I'd stopped watching the Diamond Princess, but it has also slowly increased to 1.4%, with over 100 cases remaining active.
 
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bcmbvol

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It wasn't an assumption. It was a direct statement that for a virus with a high mortality and R0, relaxing restrictions (thus raising R0) will kill more people. That's a science fact.
Yeah, obviously the principle is logically consistent. I’m saying that “not a uniquely serious pandemic” is the null hypothesis of “uniquely serious pandemic,” which means they are dependent on the same variables. And if you’re going to reject one of these because the data is unacceptable for whatever reason, you can’t affirm the opposite based on the very same data.
 
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