Realistically expectations for wins?

#1
globadoc

globadoc

Professor of BBQ & Sports
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#1
Situation: Porous defense returning, 1-2 new starters on the OLine, 3 receivers + 1 TE leaving, starting QB leaving. Schedule that includes away games at Oregon, Alabama, and Florida. New system and new coordinators.

The reality for coaches is that Athletic Depts will can you after the first year if the number of losses is obscene.

Q1: How many games does the new coach at UT need to win the first year (or two) to avoid getting canned?

Q2: How many games would you realistically expect to win the first year?
(Key word: Realistically. No one in their right mind should realistically expect anything close to 12 wins.)


My gut feel:
Q1 - 4 wins will keep you safe in the first year, but 8 or better in 2014 is necessary.
Q2 - 6 minimum.
 
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#2
#2
globadoc said:
Situation: Porous defense returning, 1-2 new starters on the OLine, 3 receivers + 1 TE leaving, starting QB leaving. Schedule that includes away games at Oregon, Alabama, and Florida. New system and new coordinators.

The reality for coaches is that Athletic Depts will can you after the first year if the number of losses is obscene.

Q1: How many games does the new coach at UT need to win the first year (or two) to avoid getting canned?

Q2: How many games would you realistically expect to win the first year?
(Key word: Realistically. No one in their right mind should realistically expect anything close to 12 wins.)


My
Click to expand...

Your what?
 
#4
#4
Not sure till I see the caliber of coach we get and the recruiting class he grabs. Great coach and a Good class with 5 stars to plug in holes would change things
2-3 wins.
 
#5
#5
Nobody is sure yet who is leaving, including CP, Hunter and Bray. I personally hope Bray is gone. Time for the Nathan Peterman ERA to begin. When we get Gruden who knows what it does to their decision making. Hunter wouldnt bother me if he left with his long arming, several drops a game and doing everything he can to avoid getting hit. That tells me he is protecting himself and only cares about the NFL.
 
#6
#6
Next yrs schedule is brutal so honestly with Gruden 7-8 wins would be a success.
 
#7
#7
UTodd01 said:
Your what?
Click to expand...

My bad. Thought I'd finished the sentence there.

My expectation for next year's team is 6 wins the first year (regardless of the coach), 8 or 9 the next. If the new guy gets less than 4 wins, show him the door. Unless it's Gruden.

LocoVol said:
Not sure till I see the caliber of coach we get and the recruiting class he grabs. Great coach and a Good class with 5 stars to plug in holes would change things
2-3 wins.
Click to expand...

'Tis mostly true. Recruiting success will make a huge difference. Frankly, I suspect that all of the rumored possible candidates are decent on-the-field and practice coaches. National recruiting potential is perhaps the factor that distinguishes them more than anything else.
 
#9
#9
Here's my 2 cents:

I think the only guys we see leave are Hunter, CP, and maybe McCullers. All 3 are first round picks in this draft. They will get solid grades from the Draft Advisory Board and will bolt. McCullers is a maybe, but NT's are often overvalued so I think he has a good chance. Bray won't get a good grade in my opinion. Dallas Thomas is the only other one I think will get a good grade on the OLine and if he doesn't mind being a 2nd round pick then he will, can't see it though (barring circumstances that would force him to leave early). I don't see Mo Couch or Sentimore getting good enough grades that they would bolt. That doesn't mean I'm saying these players are bad, not at all, I just don't think they will get favorable grades from the Draft Advisory Board. Combine that with a high profile coach like Gruden and I think the attrition won't be as bad as expected.

So you lose your top 4 receivers (2 Juniors, a Senior, and Senior TE), but a name offensive coach like Gruden is going to haul in some prospects. We already have 2 4-star WRs with high interest/commitment and I think Gruden could attract more. So you lose the experienced guys, but you bring in some strong new blood. It's not ideal, but players can step up when you aren't expecting them to (see Cordarrelle Patterson). So I'm not as worried about the attrition, but you will have a lot of young talent.

The schedule looks to have 7 winnable games: Austin Peay, W. Kentucky, South Alabama, Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy, Kentucky. Not saying we will win those games, but they are winnable. Talent isn't the only thing that decides games, if it were then Boise St. would have never escaped mediocrity. Preparation and motivation are huge. A coach like Gruden will have his teams 100% prepared and I think between Gruden and Raheem Morris they could definitely get players motivated. So I tend to think those winnable games will be won. Then you look at the tougher games, Georgia and South Carolina are at Neyland. 100,000 Gruden excited fans will make for a very hostile crowd. These games aren't winnable, but again I think preparation and motivation will keep UT in these games.

@ Alabama, @ Oregon, and @ Florida will be incredibly tough games, especially for the young players. Not saying we can't win, but I won't be surprised if we don't.

So between the talent returning, the excited fan base, the top notch coaching, and the sem-favorable schedule I think 7 to 9 wins is realistic.
 
#10
#10
OakRidgeVol said:
Here's my 2 cents:

I think the only guys we see leave are Hunter, CP, and maybe McCullers. All 3 are first round picks in this draft. They will get solid grades from the Draft Advisory Board and will bolt. McCullers is a maybe, but NT's are often overvalued so I think he has a good chance. Bray won't get a good grade in my opinion. Dallas Thomas is the only other one I think will get a good grade on the OLine and if he doesn't mind being a 2nd round pick then he will, can't see it though (barring circumstances that would force him to leave early). I don't see Mo Couch or Sentimore getting good enough grades that they would bolt. That doesn't mean I'm saying these players are bad, not at all, I just don't think they will get favorable grades from the Draft Advisory Board. Combine that with a high profile coach like Gruden and I think the attrition won't be as bad as expected.

So you lose your top 4 receivers (2 Juniors, a Senior, and Senior TE), but a name offensive coach like Gruden is going to haul in some prospects. We already have 2 4-star WRs with high interest/commitment and I think Gruden could attract more. So you lose the experienced guys, but you bring in some strong new blood. It's not ideal, but players can step up when you aren't expecting them to (see Cordarrelle Patterson). So I'm not as worried about the attrition, but you will have a lot of young talent.

The schedule looks to have 7 winnable games: Austin Peay, W. Kentucky, South Alabama, Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy, Kentucky. Not saying we will win those games, but they are winnable. Talent isn't the only thing that decides games, if it were then Boise St. would have never escaped mediocrity. Preparation and motivation are huge. A coach like Gruden will have his teams 100% prepared and I think between Gruden and Raheem Morris they could definitely get players motivated. So I tend to think those winnable games will be won. Then you look at the tougher games, Georgia and South Carolina are at Neyland. 100,000 Gruden excited fans will make for a very hostile crowd. These games aren't winnable, but again I think preparation and motivation will keep UT in these games.

@ Alabama, @ Oregon, and @ Florida will be incredibly tough games, especially for the young players. Not saying we can't win, but I won't be surprised if we don't.

So between the talent returning, the excited fan base, the top notch coaching, and the sem-favorable schedule I think 7 to 9 wins is realistic.
Click to expand...

:loco:
 
#11
#11
It only takes 1 team to fall in love with a prospect. If McCullers drops some fat and works out well, he could definitely be a round 1 pick. NFL teams covet NTs with McCullers size.
 
#12
#12
We get Gruden,we win a minimum of 7 next season. And I see us winning 9-10..Just depends on the quality of the new recruits and coaching. If we get a coach NOT named Gruden,I still believe we win 7-10 games. I have 100% confidence in Hart. He is an experienced genius,people. He knows exactly what he`s doing. Calm down,Vol fans! We are back! Tennessee will be fine! I`m EXCITED we go to Fla,Bama,&Ore! WHAT A CHALLENGE! ANY COACH WHO WANTS TO PROVE HIS WORTH,COME 2 TENNESSEE! I guarantee we win 1 of those 3. A coach would have to win a min.2 to keep job. And I REALISTICALLY EXPECT 7-10 WINS! Go Vols! Just got up and everyone`s going nuts! Relax! WE R FINE! I`m going 2 start a "take a Xanax,VolNation" thread later. We are not losing anyone besides CP&jH that we cannot recruit a better replacement for. We had the talent level to win 11 this year. The coaches COULD NOT KEEP THE TEAM MOTIVATED,MUCH LESS COACH THEM UP,AND DANG SURE CALLED THE MOST IDIDTIC PLAYS IN UT HISTORY! Our next coach isn`t going to be a bammer infiltrator! Nuff said! Take a Xannie,smoke a j,or drink ya 1; AND SET BACK&ENJOY!
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