RANK OUR GAMES AGAINST TOP 10 TEAMS IN ORDER OF LIKELIHOOD OF UPSET

[LV renaissance]

Here are our games against top 10 teams this regular season. I am including Oklahoma given that they are currently #11 but has had a win at ranked Louisville since the last rankings. As a reminder, here are the games in chronological order:
January 5th - OU
January 9th - LSU
January 23rd - @ Texas
January 27th - South Carolina
February 6th - UCONN
February 9th - @lsu
This gauntlet takes my breath away. That is why beating ranked or near ranked teams not in the Top 10 is critical to our resume.

Here are mine in order of the likelihood of an upset:
1. OU - this will be a Sunday game at home when we are likely be undefeated. Crowd will be a factor!
2. LSU - It is our benefit that we play LSU before LSU is really tested by hard teams. Our press will seem that much more extreme.
3. @ Texas - This will be a hard one but so will the remaining ones. We might match up better against them than SC or UCONN.
4. @lsu - Very strong home court advantage. Bonus points for us if we lost the first one to them.
5. South Carolina - Possible but no one matches up well with Carolina. They have depth so won't wear them out.
6. UCONN - They are always such a great passing team, which may negate our press more than any other team will.

Curious to hear your rankings!

 

[VolBall09]

No. Lol

 

[RockyTopTexas]

Dude I had this exact convo lat night... at the time of game we had great matchups.. even week 2 vs nc state (nobody knows if they are good yet)
In reality all those teams suck and suck bad.

They are ranked wins but they aren't.. When it comes down to it they ARENT

 

[madtownvol]

I'll play.

I really like our odds against Oklahoma. I am confident that one goes in W column.

LSU is a winnable game but we have to have a good shooting night. We can't compensate for 25% shooting by getting LSU rattled (as per Iowa).

TX same as LSU. A split between these two would be an excellent result.

LSU (again?). I think we beat them one out 2.

South Carolina - this will interesting but I don't think we are that level yet.

Uconn - The LVs will need to have their shooting shoes on to stay close. Uconn will pass through our press. So, the halfcourt defense is going to be essential.

My brain says UConn but my heart says that LVs will have their game of the year and pull off the shock upset.

 

[lvocd]

What may get us losses is if we get the pressure treatment ourselves by a team with strong defenders and who also has great shooters. (Duh, right?) Tennessee definitely needs to start putting everything together with a little more urgency than they've needed to devote to it up to now. After we devour the next few cupcakes we're gonna need to go on a lean, mean diet of red meat. We're going to have to have a killer mentality because every opposing coach and team is going to want to the one to knock us off.

 

[madtownvol]

What may get us losses is if we get the pressure treatment ourselves by a team with strong defenders and who also has great shooters. (Duh, right?) Tennessee definitely needs to start putting everything together with a little more urgency than they've needed to devote to it up to now. After we devour the next few cupcakes we're gonna need to go on a lean, mean diet of red meat. We're going to have to have a killer mentality because every opposing coach and team is going to want to the one to knock us off.

part of the problem is that CKC has to rely on the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. This team is a bit of hodgepodge. If we look at what LV players are elite - in terms of being first conference and in the AA conversation-- right now the answer is Cooper.

Ruby stepped up big in Iowa and I think she can become a force (though she has been up and down so far). Spencer is a really good guard and may well make one of the all-conference teams.

Spearman and Latham are talented and solid players but they need another year of development before they will become game changers.

Boyd is a promising freshman but also a work in progress.

Cohesiveness team work is the key to success here.

Tess is exceeding expectations and Jewell (and Sara) need to provide some consistent outside shooting prowess because there are not that many other options with this line-up.

 

[glv98]

part of the problem is that CKC has to rely on the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. This team is a bit of hodgepodge. If we look at what LV players are elite - in terms of being first conference and in the AA conversation-- right now the answer is Cooper.

Exactly like Kellie Harper's teams the last two years. The hodgepodge - stringing together more with less - is what Kellie could never do even with Rickea. Kim is off to a more promising start in that area; she has a few more pieces to work with than Kellie did.

 

[KnoxLikeUs]

Nowhere close to being the same.
Coach Caldwell, Coach Tubner, and Coach Lazo came in and built a roster that can contend this season through the transfer portal.
They signed a strong portal class including four starters from the ACC. With the returnees, CKC in year 1 has a 10 deep rotation that is every bit as good as any team in P4 conference WBB.
Watching these games it is plain as day.
Matter of fact for the past two seasons Puckett, Spear, Hollingshead, and Darby were all starters with some of them contributing on teams that advanced to the Sweet 16.
I believe each player is going to be a factor this season as they settle into their roles with the best talent they’ve had around them in Spencer, Cooper, Whitehorn, Boyd, Latham, and Spearman.
This is not a doing more with less anything.
A year ago Tennessee entered the season ranked #11 and that wasn’t because of one player. During the Iowa vs UT game last night on the big stage, one of the game commentators talked about how Tennessee could go 12 deep.
It’s fabrication to say any setbacks of this program in previous years were or presently are due to talent.
Ruby Whitehorn, Lazaria Spearman, and Samara Spencer have never played in a program with the historical success and resources as the Lady Vols at Tennessee.
Playing at Tennessee will give them the exposure and recognition they would’ve never had at their former schools.
If they continue to perform at a high level then more accolades will come which several of these players have already earned during their careers.

 

[chuckiepoo]

the problem is that CKC has to rely on the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.

team work is the key to success here.

Otay. Which is it? Can’t have it both ways.

Immediately, CKC addressed the roster issues. Kellie will rarely get credit for delivering TayCoop, so there’s that. There were lingering roster issues left unaddressed over her tenure. Her and her staff were able to tread water using the portal.

Relying on the sum being greater than the parts, synergy, is fricking alchemy (actually, wizardry, but she weighs less than a duck, so she can’t be a witch) is what great coaches do for a living. I hate to use “him” as a reference, but “he” has become the standard…

….

This past year was amazing up there. Certainly did more with less.

But, we have walked through plenty of the requisite steps we all pointed toward back in April.

 

[madtownvol]

Otay. Which is it? Can’t have it both ways.

Immediately, CKC addressed the roster issues. Kellie will rarely get credit for delivering TayCoop, so there’s that. There were lingering roster issues left unaddressed over her tenure. Her and her staff were able to tread water using the portal.

Relying on the sum being greater than the parts, synergy, is fricking alchemy (actually, wizardry, but she weighs less than a duck, so she can’t be a witch) is what great coaches do for a living. I hate to use “him” as a reference, but “he” has become the standard…

….

This past year was amazing up there. Certainly did more with less.

But, we have walked through plenty of the requisite steps we all pointed toward back in April.

Chuckieppo, this world is filled with mind boggling paradoxes and conundrums but I don't think my post is one of them.

CKC positionless basketball system requires players that have a mix of athleticism and offensive skill set (including 3 pt. shooting).

She has some players that fit that model right now-- Coop, Ruby, and Spencer and some that probably will, like Spearman, Latham, and Boyd but who need another year or so in the system to become that.

And then there are some square pegs being fit into round holes (and doing a decent job at it) but it is far from ideal. Two years from now, when her incoming HS recruits have a year of experience, the current sophomores will be fully baked + her portal pick-ups, that is when we will see the full on CKC system in action.

PS,

I think Wynn would have thrived this season if not for the injury. her loss is more of blow than I think people have given credit.

 

[Dak1219]

Chuckieppo, this world is filled with mind boggling paradoxes and conundrums but I don't think my post is one of them.

CKC positionless basketball system requires players that have a mix of athleticism and offensive skill set (including 3 pt. shooting).

She has some players that fit that model right now-- Coop, Ruby, and Spencer and some that probably will, like Spearman, Latham, and Boyd but who need another year or so in the system to become that.

And then there are some square pegs being fit into round holes (and doing a decent job at it) but it is far from ideal. Two years from now, when her incoming HS recruits have a year of experience, the current sophomores will be fully baked + her portal pick-ups, that is when we will see the full on CKC system in action.

PS,

I think Wynn would have thrived this season if not for the injury. her loss is more of blow than I think people have given credit.

Kaiya' speed, defense rebounding and ability to get to the rim fits perfectly in this system. Terrible that she can't play this year, but I'm glad she will be back next to lead the team as a red shirt senior.

Fast and dynamic next year is an understatement if we keep all the pieces we are supposed to have and add in the freshman coming in. Athleticism off the charts combined with some really talented basketball players.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Hard to guess with a baby due in January so I will defer.

 

[newladyvolfan]

Is Wynn built for this system next year???

 

[chuckiepoo]

Is Wynn built for this system next year???

Kaiya Wynn - Women's Basketball - University of Tennessee Athletics

Exceptional young leader! She definitely had made strides as a defender her first three years here.

 

[glv98]

Kaiya' speed, defense rebounding and ability to get to the rim fits perfectly in this system. Terrible that she can't play this year, but I'm glad she will be back next to lead the team as a red shirt senior.

Kaiya has been a picture perfect LVFL, has made the most of her experience and will always be greatly loved by teammates, coaches, and fans.

But I fear Kaiya may be next year's Destiny Wells, only with a more active leader role on the team. We're going to have multiple players next season who do exactly what Kaiya does, only younger and possibly have better offensive skills. Whose minutes will she take? She may have trouble carving out meaningful mins on that team.

 

[madtownvol]

Kaiya has been a picture perfect LVFL, has made the most of her experience and will always be greatly loved by teammates, coaches, and fans.

But I fear Kaiya may be next year's Destiny Wells, only with a more active leader role on the team. We're going to have multiple players next season who do exactly what Kaiya does, only younger and possibly have better offensive skills. Whose minutes will she take? She may have trouble carving out meaningful mins on that team.

I will chip in on the Debbie Downer vibe. Her injury falls into the life is not fair category. A torn Achilles is a particularly bad injury for a basketball player. You have the long down time from the injury, surgery and initial recovery, then a long return to fitness process that gets the athlete back to doing essential things like jumping and cutting and then we have the actual return to basketball (all of which means no actual skill development is going on, it is just getting back to where you can play).

Even with the pros, who have all the resources available to them, first seasons back from an Achilles injury tend to be a struggle.

Now perhaps, Kaiya will be the exception who speeds through all the benchmarks and is 100%+ next season but that is not a high probability scenario

 

[glv98]

I will chip in on the Debbie Downer vibe. Her injury falls into the life is not fair category. A torn Achilles is a particularly bad injury for a basketball player. You have the long down time from the injury, surgery and initial recovery, then a long return to fitness process that gets the athlete back to doing essential things like jumping and cutting and then we have the actual return to basketball (all of which means no actual skill development is going on, it is just getting back to where you can play).

Even with the pros, who have all the resources available to them, first seasons back from an Achilles injury tend to be a struggle.

Now perhaps, Kaiya will be the exception who speeds through all the benchmarks and is 100%+ next season but that is not a high probability scenario

On a more hopeful note, the young lady fm Egypt on UConn's team who tore her Achilles is back in about a year's time.

I just think this might have happened too late in Kaiya's career.

 

[Volfan1000]

Here are our games against top 10 teams this regular season. I am including Oklahoma given that they are currently #11 but has had a win at ranked Louisville since the last rankings. As a reminder, here are the games in chronological order:
January 5th - OU
January 9th - LSU
January 23rd - @ Texas
January 27th - South Carolina
February 6th - UCONN
February 9th - @lsu
This gauntlet takes my breath away. That is why beating ranked or near ranked teams not in the Top 10 is critical to our resume.

Here are mine in order of the likelihood of an upset:
1. OU - this will be a Sunday game at home when we are likely be undefeated. Crowd will be a factor!
2. LSU - It is our benefit that we play LSU before LSU is really tested by hard teams. Our press will seem that much more extreme.
3. @ Texas - This will be a hard one but so will the remaining ones. We might match up better against them than SC or UCONN.
4. @lsu - Very strong home court advantage. Bonus points for us if we lost the first one to them.
5. South Carolina - Possible but no one matches up well with Carolina. They have depth so won't wear them out.
6. UCONN - They are always such a great passing team, which may negate our press more than any other team will.

Curious to hear your rankings!

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Connecticut
4. LSU
5. South Carolina

 

[Mafiaboss]

January 5th - OU We win 86-74
January 9th - LSU We win 82-80.
January 23rd - @ Texas I’m looking at a close game we probably lose.
January 27th - South Carolina We’ll keep it close. Depends on which teams show up for the game. Lean for SC to win. Coop had some extra motivation.
February 6th - UCONN We’ll keep it close. Depends on which teams show up for the game. Lean for CT to win.
February 9th - @lsu We’ll keep it close. Depends on which teams show up for the game. Lean for LSU to win.

I think we’ll upset at least 1 from TX, CT, SC, and the away LSU.

 

[Volfan2012]

I think we can upset Oklahoma and LSU at home. Still hoping for 7 and 1 at home. Road 5 and 3 or 4 and 4 would be ok. 6 and 2 on the road would be awesome.

 

[jsc1973]

I think OP has it about right in terms of likelihood to win.

The only thing I will add is that if the LVs are up two on South Carolina with 1.1 seconds left, I don't think they will lose this year.

 

[chuckiepoo]

I think OP has it about right in terms of likelihood to win.

The only thing I will add is that if the LVs are up two on South Carolina with 1.1 seconds left, I don't think they will lose this year.

…oof…

 

[LVsinceJV]

Here are our games against top 10 teams this regular season. I am including Oklahoma given that they are currently #11 but has had a win at ranked Louisville since the last rankings. As a reminder, here are the games in chronological order:
January 5th - OU
January 9th - LSU
January 23rd - @ Texas
January 27th - South Carolina
February 6th - UCONN
February 9th - @lsu
This gauntlet takes my breath away. That is why beating ranked or near ranked teams not in the Top 10 is critical to our resume.

Here are mine in order of the likelihood of an upset:
1. OU - this will be a Sunday game at home when we are likely be undefeated. Crowd will be a factor!
2. LSU - It is our benefit that we play LSU before LSU is really tested by hard teams. Our press will seem that much more extreme.
3. @ Texas - This will be a hard one but so will the remaining ones. We might match up better against them than SC or UCONN.
4. @lsu - Very strong home court advantage. Bonus points for us if we lost the first one to them.
5. South Carolina - Possible but no one matches up well with Carolina. They have depth so won't wear them out.
6. UCONN - They are always such a great passing team, which may negate our press more than any other team will.

Curious to hear your rankings!

OU - lose
LSU @ Home - lose
@ Vandy - win
Texas - lose
SC - win
UConn - win
@ LSU - win

My gut tells me we'll split the LSU matchups, and I think just for the sake of experience in a rematch we beat them the second time even if it's an away game. Hot take but I'm predicting tough wins against UConn and UConn South (Vandy), or a close loss to only one of them. I don't think we lose both. SC is very beatable this season, no more 3pt specialist Cardoso on the team to put us away or give us trouble inside. We may end up with a win against one of these I've predicted losses for, and a loss against a team like Alabama, Kentucky, or Miss State. I think we come away with only 4 losses heading into the SEC tournament.

 

[KnoxLikeUs]

I can almost guarantee that this current team’s mindset including players with honors of SEC and ACC All-Freshman Team, SEC Freshman of the Year, All-ACC in Samara Spencer, Sara Puckett, Alyssa Latham, and Jewel Spear alongside several highly ranked players with three earning McDonald All-American honors in Whitehorn, Cooper, Hollingshead, Spearman, and Boyd on the #15 ranked undefeated team does not view themselves as an underdog to Oklahoma, LSU, and Texas when they matchup with those players on the court.
The only team in the SEC that this group will consider themselves as an underdog to is South Carolina.
These are players that they have competed against the current best in the SEC back in AAU and High School basketball.
It’s amazing the difference in perception from fans vs players.

 

[LVsinceJV]

I can almost guarantee that this current team’s mindset including players with honors of SEC and ACC All-Freshman Team, SEC Freshman of the Year, All-ACC in Samara Spencer, Sara Puckett, Alyssa Latham, and Jewel Spear alongside several highly ranked players with three earning McDonald All-American honors in Whitehorn, Cooper, Hollingshead, Spearman, and Boyd on the #15 ranked undefeated team does not view themselves as an underdog to Oklahoma, LSU, and Texas when they matchup with those players on the court.
The only team in the SEC that this group will consider an upset is South Carolina.
These are players that they have competed against back in AAU and High School basketball.
It’s amazing the difference in perception from fans vs players.

I should hope our team's confidence is that high, but the fact is we are underdogs because we are currently ranked lower than these teams. Like, facts are facts. The thread is about predicting the rest of our season, it's supposed to be fun.