I vote for spread. Predicting shooting accuracy for a given night is blind chance. How much better one team is than another should hold true, regardless--plus, it rewards defense!
In years past, some of the loudest roars of appreciation from fans at then-Thompson-Boling Arena were those that shook the building during and after a particularly strong defensive stand. A lot of diehard Tennessee fans, I know from experience, are equally knowledgable and critical of the team's defense. So far this season I have heard ZERO complaints.