VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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- Jan 17, 2015
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Simple premise: tell me your win-loss prediction for the Vols in 2019, and I think I* can guess which teams you see us beating, within a reasonable tolerance.
The model goes like this, based on predicted # of Tennessee wins:
..1 - beat only UT-Chattanooga
....2 - add Georgia State
......3 - add UAB
........4 - add Kentucky
..........5 - add Vandy
............6 - add Mizzou
..............7 - add BYU
................8 - add USCe
..................9 - add Miss State
....................10 - add Florida
......................11 - add UGa
........................12, undefeated - add Bama
Some won't fit this pattern exactly. Might have adjacent teams flip-flopped (example: add Vandy before Kentucky, or USCe before BYU).
But my sensing is that it would be unusual for this table to be off more than two positions for anyone. In those rare instances, it would likely happen in the muddy middle of teams including Mizzou, BYU, USCe, and Miss State.
It's not remarkable, really. Football is, like many sports, broadly predictable to something like a 70% level. There are always surprises, upsets, even upheavals, but those exceptions don't entirely negate the sense of predictability. And so we humans take advantage of that predictability. And we mostly tend to do it in about the same way. Our guesses for # of wins may be far apart, but we probably still agree on what wins would be needed to get to each of our predictions.
I just find that interesting.
* (really, not just me, anyone who takes a minute to rank-order the opposing teams by perceived challenge level)
The model goes like this, based on predicted # of Tennessee wins:
..1 - beat only UT-Chattanooga
....2 - add Georgia State
......3 - add UAB
........4 - add Kentucky
..........5 - add Vandy
............6 - add Mizzou
..............7 - add BYU
................8 - add USCe
..................9 - add Miss State
....................10 - add Florida
......................11 - add UGa
........................12, undefeated - add Bama
Some won't fit this pattern exactly. Might have adjacent teams flip-flopped (example: add Vandy before Kentucky, or USCe before BYU).
But my sensing is that it would be unusual for this table to be off more than two positions for anyone. In those rare instances, it would likely happen in the muddy middle of teams including Mizzou, BYU, USCe, and Miss State.
It's not remarkable, really. Football is, like many sports, broadly predictable to something like a 70% level. There are always surprises, upsets, even upheavals, but those exceptions don't entirely negate the sense of predictability. And so we humans take advantage of that predictability. And we mostly tend to do it in about the same way. Our guesses for # of wins may be far apart, but we probably still agree on what wins would be needed to get to each of our predictions.
I just find that interesting.
* (really, not just me, anyone who takes a minute to rank-order the opposing teams by perceived challenge level)
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