Phil Steele has Vols In "Bear Market"

#76
#76
tallyho said:
You could also surmise that in the last two years we lost 8 games of which all but last year's Bama game were winnable. Had we won those 7 games like we probable should of we would have won the East twice and maybe gotten into the playoffs. So in my mind the Vols have been a little unlucky and of course injury prone.
Click to expand...

We also won a couple games that we should have lost last year (App St and Georgia) so it balances out somewhat.
 
#77
#77
VFL-82-JP said:
I didn't say anything about talent improvement/decline, coaching changes, etc. I think you're confusing my response with someone else's.

Look, this tool is simply a flat-line trend analysis formula. It says a team will continue to do roughly as well as it has done in recent years. So if last year the team suffered a down blip, it's likely to bounce back this year. If the team overachieved last year, they're likely to come back toward their average this year.

That's all it says.

Nothing about predicting which games will be won, nothing about analysis based on games teams typically win, nothing like any of that. It's a far more crude tool than you are giving it credit for being. It's a flat-line trend analysis formula. Period.

And it doesn't work for programs in transition, because they're not on a flat line.
Click to expand...
jp, all i was doing was taking your post and providing my opinion on what i think he would say in response.

that's all, nothing more. and there's no way to know if that's right or not, pure speculation on my part.

i actually agree with your main point.

i'm wondering now who really likes to argue here....:)
 
#79
#79
Steele with the negative knee jerk reaction due to getting burned last year after projecting big things for team 120 imho. Not saying we're going 10-2 and winning the sec, just don't think we're gonna crater. I think we have a good chance to be a solid team that can rise above the low expectations.
 
#80
#80
So lets see - Clemson is -2, Oklahoma is 0, Alabama is -1, and Ohio State is +2.

Guess we should bet the house on OSU to win the NC.
 
#81
#81
And Washington ... well 7+8 = 15 which is an average of 7.5. They won 12 - I guess they just might as well cancel the season.
 
#82
#82
05_never_again said:
Yep. At Tennessee Butch has won a single game that he "hasn't supposed to" (2013 South Carolina) but has dropped a couple of games he should have won. In all of his "big wins" we've been favored, sometimes by quite a few points.

Based on his history, you have to pencil in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU as losses and hope he doesn't drop a game to someone like Tech, Kentucky, or Vandy. I think 4 wins is likely, either to first 4 teams mentioned or he finds a way to upset one of those teams but gets upset by another.
Click to expand...
Why would you have to pencil in Georgia as a loss based on his history? Recent history tells us that game is a toss up. Butch is 2-2 against Georgia, with a combined score of 135-131 in favor of the good guys.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#83
#83
MyBloodRunnethOrange said:
Why would you have to pencil in Georgia as a loss based on his history? Recent history tells us that game is a toss up. Butch is 2-2 against Georgia, with a combined score of 135-131 in favor of the good guys.
Click to expand...

Because they should be better than last year, we should be worse, and let's face it we should have lost that game last year. Eason will be in his second year, they have a veteran O-line with 2 good RBs, and they return 10 starters on D.

It is the most winnable game out of Florida/Georgia/Alabama/LSU though.
 
#84
#84
LA Vol said:
I'd be willing to bet Currie has a shortlist-- not that he intends or hopes to use it, but he knows the history. He's not going to get caught unprepared.

Bet CBJ's agent has a shortlist, too. They're all smart guys. They're looking at all the angles.
Click to expand...

Yep. Just business.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#85
#85
05_never_again said:
We also won a couple games that we should have lost last year (App St and Georgia) so it balances out somewhat.
Click to expand...

I don't consider App St or Ga as should lose. games. How those games played out it would have been easier to have lost, but not a should lose game.
 
#86
#86
05_never_again said:
Because they should be better than last year, we should be worse, and let's face it we should have lost that game last year. Eason will be in his second year, they have a veteran O-line with 2 good RBs, and they return 10 starters on D.

It is the most winnable game out of Florida/Georgia/Alabama/LSU though.
Click to expand...

That's based on projections of the upcoming teams based on returning talent, not Butch's history vs Georgia. Based on talent and experience I might agree with you. Based on history though it's anybody's game. We could easily be 0-4 against Georgia under CBJ. We could just as easily be 4-0. If Pig doesn't fumble the ball trying to make a play we win the game in 2013. I don't buy the we should have lost argument.
 
#87
#87
05_never_again said:
Yes, but the competitive losses, especially ones when you play well but the other team is just better (as opposed to a game where both teams play terribly) don't rev up the "we need to fire the coach" train quite as much.

9-3 absolutely calms the crazy, because that means that we probably beat one of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU and win all the other games. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some small raise/extension if he does that. A win in the bowl game would mean double-digit wins for the first time since 2007.

8-4 is status quo and the angst remains, although it could mean lame duck status for Butch depending on who those losses were to and how the games were lost.

7-5 is lame duck status. In all likelihood that means a loss to a team like Tech, South Carolina, Vandy, or Kentucky in addition to the Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and LSU losses.

6-6 or worse probably means they bite the bullet and fire him after the season. In all likelihood, it would include some type of inexplicable loss in addition to losing against the competitive teams and another inferior team. I just don't see him hanging around if that occurred.
Click to expand...

8+ wins also probably holds most of our recruits. Think 7 wins puts us in danger zone on losing some recruits due to Butch needing to have huge 2018
 
#88
#88
MyBloodRunnethOrange said:
That's based on projections of the upcoming teams based on returning talent
Click to expand...

What else am I supposed to make the prediction on? :)

Butch has had some success against Georgia, but I don't put too much stock in that, especially when you are talking college football and the player turnover is greater on a year-to-year basis than it is in the NFL.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#89
#89
AND Ben Kercheval of CBS Sports says Butch could be one of a handful of coaches who are fired before the month of November... SMH... article on Rockytop Insider...
 
#90
#90
butchna said:
Ever watch the Office? :)
[youtube]https://youtu.be/WaaANll8h18[/youtube]
Click to expand...


OK, thanks for catching me up there, Butchna. Thought our friend was going crazy, but he is just a fan of crazy.

Might have to set the TEVO for this. But if it is like the three Austin Powers movies, there was only one part that made me laugh. I laughed hard, but the rest? Ehhh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4W0t_fWJoE
 
#92
#92
volfan102455 said:
I really wonder if a lot of this negative talk from some in the media is an attempt to derail recruiting.
Click to expand...

what? you think the media is out to derail Tennessee's recruiting?

c'mon. :crazy: all they want is for you to click on it and make outlandish remarks like this.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#94
#94
I heard a segment with Phil Steele on Sirius XM college sports yesterday describing his dark horse national championship pick, Florida. Bullet points:

-Losing key members on defense, but many young players received experience last season due to injuries.

-Experienced offensive line returning.

-Three future Heisman winners at quarterback, none of which are proven, but will be world beaters.

-Solid running back.

-Only three true road games.

Aside from the schedule, this sounds oddly similar to our situation. So why are we going 5-7, firing Butch, while Florida is off to the playoffs, even though, according to Phil Steele, our situations are strangely similar?

I could care less what he thinks after that idiotic rant on XM.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#95
#95
zeppelin128 said:
I heard a segment with Phil Steele on Sirius XM college sports yesterday describing his dark horse national championship pick, Florida. Bullet points:

-Losing key members on defense, but many young players received experience last season due to injuries.

-Experienced offensive line returning.

-Three future Heisman winners at quarterback, none of which are proven, but will be world beaters.

-Solid running back.

-Only three true road games.

Aside from the schedule, this sounds oddly similar to our situation. So why are we going 5-7, firing Butch, while Florida is off to the playoffs, even though, according to Phil Steele, our situations are strangely similar?

I could care less what he thinks after that idiotic rant on XM.
Click to expand...

Ourlads.com which seems to do a pretty good job of following depth charts for college teams lists no Jrs or Srs in UF's OL depth chart. The starters according to them are Sophs at RG, LG, and RT with a RSFr transfer at C and a true Fr at LT. Three of the backups are true Fr another is a RSFr.

If accurate, that would mean 6 of their first 10 OL's have never played in a CFB game and no one has more than a year of playing experience.

Maybe someone has a more accurate depth chart for them?

Their defensive line is similar with sophomores and freshmen to go with RS Jr Jordan Sherit... who does not start.

http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/florida/90498
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#96
#96
zeppelin128 said:
I heard a segment with Phil Steele on Sirius XM college sports yesterday describing his dark horse national championship pick, Florida. Bullet points:

-Losing key members on defense, but many young players received experience last season due to injuries.

-Experienced offensive line returning.

-Three future Heisman winners at quarterback, none of which are proven, but will be world beaters.

-Solid running back.

-Only three true road games.

Aside from the schedule, this sounds oddly similar to our situation. So why are we going 5-7, firing Butch, while Florida is off to the playoffs, even though, according to Phil Steele, our situations are strangely similar?

I could care less what he thinks after that idiotic rant on XM.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately because UT seems to find ways to lose and botch having great seasons more times than not....to answer your question imo. FL makes it to ATL more than UT.......Unfortunately. It's past time for that crap to stop!
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#97
#97
sjt18 said:
Ourlads.com which seems to do a pretty good job of following depth charts for college teams lists no Jrs or Srs in UF's OL depth chart. The starters according to them are Sophs at RG, LG, and RT with a RSFr transfer at C and a true Fr at LT. Three of the backups are true Fr another is a RSFr.

If accurate, that would mean 6 of their first 10 OL's have never played in a CFB game and no one has more than a year of playing experience.

Maybe someone has a more accurate depth chart for them?

Their defensive line is similar with sophomores and freshmen to go with RS Jr Jordan Sherit... who does not start.

http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/florida/90498
Click to expand...

This is why I thought it was odd that he went with the Gators as his dark horse, when arguably they are in worse shape with talent and experience than us. This is the first time in several seasons that I feel we pick up a solid win in the Swamp. It would not surprise me at all if Florida drops five or six games this year. I just don't understand all the Gator love this off-season. If any team is a dark horse, it should be Georgia due to returning talent and Eason.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#99
#99
Gators are getting the love, because they're the team that has benefited from UT's and UGA's missed opportunities. The Gators just lie in wait while UT and UGA lose a few games they shouldn't, handing the Gators the SECE. McElwain has been the luckiest coach in the SEC the past two years. He just sits back and watches while his rivals clear his path to ATL.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top