Tenacious D
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Hypothesis:
Bruce Pearl and Tennessee have mutually agreed to part ways at season's end, for their respective best interests. In consideration of the severance package he receives, Pearl agrees not to accept another college coaching position for two years (add'l requirements would prevent his return to the SEC for 3-5 years).
For Mike Hamilton:
It prevents the embattled AD from having to terminate Pearl - his lone crown jewel - as such would likely seal his own fate, as well. Perhaps most importantly, it allows Hamilton to hire a coach at the absolute best time of the year (March - early April), instead of the worst (September), when the receipt of sanctions would likely be received, and Pearl was hit with a two-year show cause order. I don't know if Hamilton ultimately survives all of this, but he at least lives to fight another day, for sure.
For Bruce Pearl:
Of the 20 others who have been slapped with an unethical conduct charge for lying to the 'AA (as Pearl did), 19 have been hit with a "show cause" order, essentially, preventing their return to coaching for a period of time (1-2 years). In the one instance where such was avoided, the guilty party was no longer working in coaching or at the collegiate level when the penalties were announced, and the 'AA deemed it unnnecessary. In light of his severance agreement with UT (and its prohibition against his return to collegiate coaching for two years) the 'AA finds it equally unnecessary to hit Pearl with a show cause order - and he narrowly avoids the attachment of that stigma which would all but guarantee that he would never again have an opportunity to coach at the D1 level of a major conference. So, for two years, Pearl either does television or simply works to line up his next college coaching gig, or most likely, both. Pearl can say that his decision to leave Tennessee is for the betterment of the school and the men's basketball program, and hopes that doing so of his own volition will serve to protect his legacy here.
For the Assistants:
Gone. The lot of them. Scattered to the wind.
Tennessee's Pending 'AA Sanctions:
The LOA was telling, insofar as the most serious allegations were aimed directly at the involved coaches themselves, and not at the program(s). And when you consider that those three coaches (Pearl, Kiffin and Reaves) will no longer be employed by the University, either at the time of the hearing or in the determination of penalties, it seems likely that the punishments will follow the same formula. In Pearl's particular case, Tennessee claims that they took both drastic and immediate action soon after being notified of his actions in misleading investigators, most notably in terminating his contract. However, given its close proximity to the upcoming season, and the fact that the entirety of the assistant coaching staff was also similiarly involved, they felt that his immediate and outright dismissal was all but impossible. They will almost certainly assert that prohibiting Pearl and Jones' from any off-campus recruiting was not for punitive purposes alone, but a protective one as well, as this offered the UTAD with the greatest oversight to ensure that no further or similiar violations occurred. Tennessee will argue that they have already essentially forfeited an entire season, have (technically) fired the all-time winningest coach in the history of the program, and do not deserve more severe or additional punishments. Mike Slive will be certain that this argument does not fall on deaf or unsympathetic ears, to be sure. And, if you think that the UTAD / Hamilton are somehow above throwing a coach (deservedly or not) under the bus to protect the program(s), just ask Kiffin's thoughts on the matter as he enters the 'AA's HQ to appear before the COI in June. While neither the football nor basketball programs go entirely unscathed, the severity of their punishment will be infinitely less than it would have been, were those coaches still in place.
Bonus Prediction: Nothing happens to Kiffin, whatsoever, and if something does start to stick, it lands on Reaves, instead. My $.02
For the Next Head Coach:
As described earlier, take out those allegations which are specifically attached to a single coach, and not the basketball program itself in the course of the LOA and what do you have left? Essentially, an innocuous listing of secondary violations - none of which offer so much as a hint that major sanctions are forthcoming, or perhaps even possible. See how that was explained to you in two easy sentences? Well, that's how its being similiarly explained right now (as in, while you are reading this) to prospective hires, and it seems difficult to imagine that any serious candidate would be so overly concerned with them as to refuse the job (they will use it as leverage in negotiating terms and salary, but that's about it. So who does Tennessee hire? Outside of a few people here, who can identify themselves if they wish (but I will not) - few could even name the serious candidates to be considered. But I will say this: It will be a homerun. Like many here, the UTAD all too easily remembers the 20 years of wandering in the desert, understands the momentum that the program currently has (even despite all of this mess), and will do whatever it takes to see that it doesn't simply evaporate. They will target 2-3 candidates, and the dollar amounts will grow larger and larger until one of them buys an orange tie and agrees to show up to the presser. How best to define my interpretation of "homerun" - it will be someone who is welcomed by 90% of the fanbase, including both Hat and those who have most ardently defended Pearl to this point?
So, this is all purely hypothetical, of course. But I predict that you'll see this unfold shortly after Tennessee loses to Michigan in the first round (or, God help us, to Duke in the second), and just as some of the most reliable posters (i.e. LWS, Hat, BMFPV, etc.) have already alluded to.
I'd welcome any constructive feedback or criticisms to those elements which you believe that I may have missed, or simply got wrong.
Bruce Pearl and Tennessee have mutually agreed to part ways at season's end, for their respective best interests. In consideration of the severance package he receives, Pearl agrees not to accept another college coaching position for two years (add'l requirements would prevent his return to the SEC for 3-5 years).
For Mike Hamilton:
It prevents the embattled AD from having to terminate Pearl - his lone crown jewel - as such would likely seal his own fate, as well. Perhaps most importantly, it allows Hamilton to hire a coach at the absolute best time of the year (March - early April), instead of the worst (September), when the receipt of sanctions would likely be received, and Pearl was hit with a two-year show cause order. I don't know if Hamilton ultimately survives all of this, but he at least lives to fight another day, for sure.
For Bruce Pearl:
Of the 20 others who have been slapped with an unethical conduct charge for lying to the 'AA (as Pearl did), 19 have been hit with a "show cause" order, essentially, preventing their return to coaching for a period of time (1-2 years). In the one instance where such was avoided, the guilty party was no longer working in coaching or at the collegiate level when the penalties were announced, and the 'AA deemed it unnnecessary. In light of his severance agreement with UT (and its prohibition against his return to collegiate coaching for two years) the 'AA finds it equally unnecessary to hit Pearl with a show cause order - and he narrowly avoids the attachment of that stigma which would all but guarantee that he would never again have an opportunity to coach at the D1 level of a major conference. So, for two years, Pearl either does television or simply works to line up his next college coaching gig, or most likely, both. Pearl can say that his decision to leave Tennessee is for the betterment of the school and the men's basketball program, and hopes that doing so of his own volition will serve to protect his legacy here.
For the Assistants:
Gone. The lot of them. Scattered to the wind.
Tennessee's Pending 'AA Sanctions:
The LOA was telling, insofar as the most serious allegations were aimed directly at the involved coaches themselves, and not at the program(s). And when you consider that those three coaches (Pearl, Kiffin and Reaves) will no longer be employed by the University, either at the time of the hearing or in the determination of penalties, it seems likely that the punishments will follow the same formula. In Pearl's particular case, Tennessee claims that they took both drastic and immediate action soon after being notified of his actions in misleading investigators, most notably in terminating his contract. However, given its close proximity to the upcoming season, and the fact that the entirety of the assistant coaching staff was also similiarly involved, they felt that his immediate and outright dismissal was all but impossible. They will almost certainly assert that prohibiting Pearl and Jones' from any off-campus recruiting was not for punitive purposes alone, but a protective one as well, as this offered the UTAD with the greatest oversight to ensure that no further or similiar violations occurred. Tennessee will argue that they have already essentially forfeited an entire season, have (technically) fired the all-time winningest coach in the history of the program, and do not deserve more severe or additional punishments. Mike Slive will be certain that this argument does not fall on deaf or unsympathetic ears, to be sure. And, if you think that the UTAD / Hamilton are somehow above throwing a coach (deservedly or not) under the bus to protect the program(s), just ask Kiffin's thoughts on the matter as he enters the 'AA's HQ to appear before the COI in June. While neither the football nor basketball programs go entirely unscathed, the severity of their punishment will be infinitely less than it would have been, were those coaches still in place.
Bonus Prediction: Nothing happens to Kiffin, whatsoever, and if something does start to stick, it lands on Reaves, instead. My $.02
For the Next Head Coach:
As described earlier, take out those allegations which are specifically attached to a single coach, and not the basketball program itself in the course of the LOA and what do you have left? Essentially, an innocuous listing of secondary violations - none of which offer so much as a hint that major sanctions are forthcoming, or perhaps even possible. See how that was explained to you in two easy sentences? Well, that's how its being similiarly explained right now (as in, while you are reading this) to prospective hires, and it seems difficult to imagine that any serious candidate would be so overly concerned with them as to refuse the job (they will use it as leverage in negotiating terms and salary, but that's about it. So who does Tennessee hire? Outside of a few people here, who can identify themselves if they wish (but I will not) - few could even name the serious candidates to be considered. But I will say this: It will be a homerun. Like many here, the UTAD all too easily remembers the 20 years of wandering in the desert, understands the momentum that the program currently has (even despite all of this mess), and will do whatever it takes to see that it doesn't simply evaporate. They will target 2-3 candidates, and the dollar amounts will grow larger and larger until one of them buys an orange tie and agrees to show up to the presser. How best to define my interpretation of "homerun" - it will be someone who is welcomed by 90% of the fanbase, including both Hat and those who have most ardently defended Pearl to this point?
So, this is all purely hypothetical, of course. But I predict that you'll see this unfold shortly after Tennessee loses to Michigan in the first round (or, God help us, to Duke in the second), and just as some of the most reliable posters (i.e. LWS, Hat, BMFPV, etc.) have already alluded to.
I'd welcome any constructive feedback or criticisms to those elements which you believe that I may have missed, or simply got wrong.
