Paths to 270

#1
05_never_again

05_never_again

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#1
Lot of threads here about the politics of this election so let's have one about the mathematics of it.

You can play around with the electoral map here:

2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Any way you slice it, Hillary has a much easier path to 270 than Donald does. He has to flip multiple states that Obama won in 2012, some of which are going to be much more difficult to do than others. If you play around with the math, it is very hard, virtually impossible, to see him getting to 270 without winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Those first 3 are winnable, but he's something like 6 points back in Pennsylvania. If not Pennsylvania, then he would need to somehow win Wisconsin and Michigan, where Hillary has even bigger and more consistent leads. This is of course assuming he holds on to every state that Romney won in 2012, which I think he will do.

His margin for error is almost zero. I think the popular vote is going to be very, very close, but unfortunately for Donald that is not how the election is decided.
 
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#3
#3
golfballs said:
On the current trajectory Trump will win
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The OP is right. Trump can win Ohio, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Utah and still not get to 270. Even assuming he wins those 5; he must also win one of the following:

Pennsylvania
Virginia
Colorado
Michigan
Wisconsin

Looking at this objectively, it doesn't look good for him. The electoral map really favors the democratic candidate among the states that are "set in stone" since Virginia has now basically turned blue.
 
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#5
#5
It would be nice to get Pennsylvania but it not a lost cause without it and nor does he have to win Colorado, Michigan, or Wisconsin if he loses it. If he can split Maine's electoral vote and win New Hampshire he wins 270 to 268.
 
#7
#7
BowlBrother85 said:
The OP is right. Trump can win Ohio, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Utah and still not get to 270. Even assuming he wins those 5; he must also win one of the following:

Pennsylvania
Virginia
Colorado
Michigan
Wisconsin

Looking at this objectively, it doesn't look good for him. The electoral map really favors the democratic candidate among the states that are "set in stone" since Virginia has now basically turned blue.
Click to expand...

He'll win two or three of those five.
 
#8
#8
Burhead said:
It would be nice to get Pennsylvania but it not a lost cause without it and nor does he have to win Colorado, Michigan, or Wisconsin if he loses it. If he can split Maine's electoral vote and win New Hampshire he wins 270 to 268.
Click to expand...

That combo you mentioned wouldn't get him to 270. He'd lose 271-267, and that's if he got all of Maine's votes. He has to win every state that is statistically up for grabs, and then pull off a pretty big upset in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin/Michigan to win.

FLVOL is correct in that the "base" electoral map (i.e., the states we know which direction they are going to vote) strongly favors the Democrat. For Republicans to win, they have to win all or nearly all the swing states, which is not impossible but just unlikely.
 
#9
#9
05_never_again said:
That combo you mentioned wouldn't get him to 270. He'd lose 271-267, and that's if he got all of Maine's votes. He has to win every state that is statistically up for grabs, and then pull off a pretty big upset in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin/Michigan to win.

FLVOL is correct in that the "base" electoral map (i.e., the states we know which direction they are going to vote) strongly favors the Democrat. For Republicans to win, they have to win all or nearly all the swing states, which is not impossible but just unlikely.
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Yes it does. I've already projected him winning Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina. With those states factored in (plus the safe R states), all Trump has to do is win NH and split Maine and it puts him directly at 270.
 
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#11
#11
Poll came out today that has Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania. The tide is clearly turning. At this rate he'll win the election
 
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#12
#12
Burhead said:
Yes it does. I've already projected him winning Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina. With those states factored in (plus the safe R states), all Trump has to do is win NH and split Maine and it puts him directly at 270.
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Oh ok - I didn't have him winning Nevada in my count.
 
#13
#13
golfballs said:
Poll came out today that has Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania. The tide is clearly turning. At this rate he'll win the election
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I wouldn't put too much faith in a single poll, especially if said poll is an outlier. She's had a consistent 6-8 point lead there over the last several weeks in the RCP average of all the polls.

I agree that the tide is turning and the election is likely to be close, especially the popular vote. While I'm sure their expectations have been adjusted over the last few weeks, I still think that Hillary's supporters (not the people running her campaign, but her dyed-in-the-wool supporters) are underestimating Trump's chances to win. That will also play a role in this election, because Trump's diehards know that they need to get out and vote in the swing states for him to win.
 
#16
#16
golfballs said:
Poll came out today that has Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania. The tide is clearly turning. At this rate he'll win the election
Click to expand...

Which poll is that? RCP doesn't show a poll for Pennsylvania being released today. They had one yesterday (Franklin and Marshall) which showed Clinton with an 11 point lead. Most of the Pennsylvania polls I've seen over the last month have it between 6-9 points. Voter turnout in Philadelphia would have to be very low for Trump to pull it out. Possible but not likely.
 
#17
#17
BowlBrother85 said:
Which poll is that? RCP doesn't show a poll for Pennsylvania being released today. They had one yesterday (Franklin and Marshall) which showed Clinton with an 11 point lead. Most of the Pennsylvania polls I've seen over the last month have it between 6-9 points. Voter turnout in Philadelphia would have to be very low for Trump to pull it out. Possible but not likely.
Click to expand...

Penn is fool's gold for Republicans. Never enough votes to overcome Philly.
 
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#22
#22
BowlBrother85 said:
Which poll is that? RCP doesn't show a poll for Pennsylvania being released today. They had one yesterday (Franklin and Marshall) which showed Clinton with an 11 point lead. Most of the Pennsylvania polls I've seen over the last month have it between 6-9 points. Voter turnout in Philadelphia would have to be very low for Trump to pull it out. Possible but not likely.
Click to expand...

Their 3-day rolling has Trump up 1
New Poll Results - Alliance ? ESA Poll
 
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