Over/under on SEC wins

#2

tbh

Heh...you said Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2017
Messages
1,044
Likes
1,403
#2
Seems like a fairly realistic projection overall, but I gotta wonder if Kentucky's 4.5 wins are a product of how good they are, or how weak the SEC-E is outside of Georgia and Florida? Assuming the odds makers are assuming UK wins over SCar, UT, and Vandy...where are the other 1.5 coming from? MSU and a toss-up with Missouri?
 
Likes: volfaninky
#3

VAVol85

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 6, 2019
Messages
427
Likes
808
#3
Bama - 7.5
Ark - 2.5
Auburn - 3.5
UF - 5.5
UGA - 7
UK - 4.5
LSU - 4.5
Ole Miss - 4
MSU - 2.5
Mizzou - 3.5
USC - 1.5
UT - 3
A&M - 5.5
Vandy - 1.5
3 SEC wins and 4 OOC wins (and competitive play even in our losses) is what I predict. 7-5 would be a very good season for us coming off the fiasco of last year.

Breaking even in the SEC by winning 2 from UK/Mizzou/Ole Miss (plus Vandy and USC) Is a stretch goal.
 
#4

Berry4Heisman14

Will we ever be relevant again?
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Messages
9,920
Likes
6,506
#4
Seems like a fairly realistic projection overall, but I gotta wonder if Kentucky's 4.5 wins are a product of how good they are, or how weak the SEC-E is outside of Georgia and Florida? Assuming the odds makers are assuming UK wins over SCar, UT, and Vandy...where are the other 1.5 coming from? MSU and a toss-up with Missouri?
A lot of question marks this season for everyone minus the usual elite teams. This season is hard to predict. If we go bowling I’ll be happy
 
#5
Joined
Sep 2, 2019
Messages
398
Likes
612
#5
I think this team gets 3 SEC wins easily, 3 ooc wins easily as well. The floor is 6 wins, just because the competition sucks. Then we have some tossup games where we could win 2. 8-4 is a reasonable expectation for this team. 4 sec wins, 4 ooc wins. My orange tinted glasses think we could pull off a shocker vs uga or uf. But that’s not reasonable.
 
#6

OffTackleVol

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 31, 2017
Messages
599
Likes
1,564
#6
I think this team gets 3 SEC wins easily, 3 ooc wins easily as well. The floor is 6 wins, just because the competition sucks. Then we have some tossup games where we could win 2. 8-4 is a reasonable expectation for this team. 4 sec wins, 4 ooc wins. My orange tinted glasses think we could pull off a shocker vs uga or uf. But that’s not reasonable.
Yes, 8-4 is reasonable............
 
#8

secking

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2010
Messages
7,027
Likes
10,431
#8
Bama - 7.5
Ark - 2.5
Auburn - 3.5
UF - 5.5
UGA - 7
UK - 4.5
LSU - 4.5
Ole Miss - 4
MSU - 2.5
Mizzou - 3.5
USC - 1.5
UT - 3
A&M - 5.5
Vandy - 1.5
Hammered the Mizzou line, that’s taking easy money. Have them 5-3 in conference and 9-3 overall. AU/USC, AU should get to 4-4 and SC should get 2 SEC wins but iffy. Under on Vandy. Under on UF. Push on UT and UGA, under on Bama.
 
#9

volbound1700

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
475
Likes
648
#9
Some of these teams are way too high on # of wins. I don't see Vandy winning a game in the SEC so I have them at 0. Tennessee is at 1.5 or 2 (South Carolina and Vandy are there two best bets). Everyone is underestimating Missouri. They will be #3 in the SEC East at least if not higher. They return nearly everyone and finished hot last year. Meanwhile UK is rebuilding. Missouri should be the 4.5 while UK should be 2.5 or something along those lines.
 
#10

PEPPERJAX

Let's Do A Ritual....
Joined
Jul 17, 2013
Messages
9,798
Likes
14,396
#10
Bama - 7.5
Ark - 2.5
Auburn - 3.5
UF - 5.5
UGA - 7
UK - 4.5
LSU - 4.5
Ole Miss - 4
MSU - 2.5
Mizzou - 3.5
USC - 1.5
UT - 3
A&M - 5.5
Vandy - 1.5
Bama - 7.5 Over
Ark - 2.5 Over
Auburn - 3.5 Over
UF - 5.5 Under
UGA – 7 Under
UK - 4.5 Under
LSU - 4.5 Over
Ole Miss – 4 Over
MSU - 2.5 Over
Mizzou - 3.5 under
USC - 1.5 Under
UT – 3 Over
A&M - 5.5 Over
Vandy - 1.5 under
 
#12

BeardedVol

Not-Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
10,453
Likes
20,510
#12
Seems like a fairly realistic projection overall, but I gotta wonder if Kentucky's 4.5 wins are a product of how good they are, or how weak the SEC-E is outside of Georgia and Florida? Assuming the odds makers are assuming UK wins over SCar, UT, and Vandy...where are the other 1.5 coming from? MSU and a toss-up with Missouri?
I just don't see Kentucky getting to 5 SEC wins with their schedule. They have to run a gauntlet of Florida, LSU, and Georgia, before Mississippi State and then us. Even with a bye week afterwards, coming off three straight losses in physical games is going to take its toll on them, they'll screw around lose to Mississippi State or us.

 
#14

volbound1700

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
475
Likes
648
#14
I just don't see Kentucky getting to 5 SEC wins with their schedule. They have to run a gauntlet of Florida, LSU, and Georgia, before Mississippi State and then us. Even with a bye week afterwards, coming off three straight losses in physical games is going to take its toll on them, they'll screw around lose to Mississippi State or us.

Honestly, the OP is way off. There are more wins than possible for the schools listed. Vandy should be at least 0.5. Tennessee should be 2.5. Kentucky should be lower. Some of the bottom feeders in the West should be lower. Perhaps he is including OOC games in the wins, not sure. If that is the case, Alabama and Georgia need more wins.
 
#15

PEPPERJAX

Let's Do A Ritual....
Joined
Jul 17, 2013
Messages
9,798
Likes
14,396
#15
Tell me, name 3 teams Tennessee beats this year and name 1 team Vandy beats?
We are discussing SEC games only right? Vandy may have a chance to win one against SCAR and that is it. I would favor UT against Vandy and SCAR. KY, Ole Miss, and Mizzou are toss up games IMO that we would have a shot. Interested to see how we compete. Ole Miss is the least likely out of those toss up games though.
 
#16

volbound1700

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
475
Likes
648
#16
We are discussing SEC games only right? Vandy may have a chance to win one against SCAR and that is it. I would favor UT against Vandy and SCAR. KY, Ole Miss, and Mizzou are toss up games IMO that we would have a shot. Interested to see how we compete. Ole Miss is the least likely out of those toss up games though.
Vols fans are kidding themselves if they think we are anywhere close to be favored against Missouri and Ole Miss. Missouri wins 8/9 games, book it. They will be #3 in SEC East and are closer to Florida/Georgia in competitivity than they are the rest of the SEC East. Tennessee would have stood a better chance against Ole Miss last year. A year 2 Ole Miss will be more mature with Kiffin's system than a year 1 Tennessee team will be with Huepel's system. Had the years been reversed, I would favor Tennessee. Ole Miss vs. Tennessee will be a shootout though :).
 
#17

BeardedVol

Not-Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
10,453
Likes
20,510
#17
Honestly, the OP is way off. There are more wins than possible for the schools listed. Vandy should be at least 0.5. Tennessee should be 2.5. Kentucky should be lower. Some of the bottom feeders in the West should be lower. Perhaps he is including OOC games in the wins, not sure. If that is the case, Alabama and Georgia need more wins.
I feel like Vandy and South Carolina both are each other's only possible SEC wins. One of them goes 1-7, and the other goes 0-8, and at the moment, it's a coin toss as to which one it will be.
 
#18

volbound1700

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
475
Likes
648
#18
I feel like Vandy and South Carolina both are each other's only possible SEC wins. One of them goes 1-7, and the other goes 0-8, and at the moment, it's a coin toss as to which one it will be.
To be fair, Tennessee is in that mix as well. I would say all three teams are in that mix and UK is a little above at #4. Missouri is far better than people are giving them credit for in this thread.
 
#19

BeardedVol

Not-Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
10,453
Likes
20,510
#19
To be fair, Tennessee is in that mix as well. I would say all three teams are in that mix and UK is a little above at #4. Missouri is far better than people are giving them credit for in this thread.
We have enough talent to beat South Carolina and Vandy, both with new first-time head coaches.

There are zero excuses for losing to either of those teams at the moment.
 
#20

PEPPERJAX

Let's Do A Ritual....
Joined
Jul 17, 2013
Messages
9,798
Likes
14,396
#20
Vols fans are kidding themselves if they think we are anywhere close to be favored against Missouri and Ole Miss. Missouri wins 8/9 games, book it. They will be #3 in SEC East and are closer to Florida/Georgia in competitivity than they are the rest of the SEC East. Tennessee would have stood a better chance against Ole Miss last year. A year 2 Ole Miss will be more mature with Kiffin's system than a year 1 Tennessee team will be with Huepel's system. Had the years been reversed, I would favor Tennessee. Ole Miss vs. Tennessee will be a shootout though :).
I wouldn’t favor us against MIZZOU or Ole miss either but those games are not definite losses like UGA, UF, or Bama. JG was the QB of our team last year with Pruitt as coach and we beat the tigers by multiple TDs.
 
#21

volbound1700

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
475
Likes
648
#21
We have enough talent to beat South Carolina and Vandy, both with new first-time head coaches.

There are zero excuses for losing to either of those teams at the moment.
I am not so sure this statement is accurate with all of the off-season defections. Notably with South Carolina, I do think the statement probably holds true for Vandy.
 
#22

volbound1700

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2007
Messages
475
Likes
648
#22
I wouldn’t favor us against MIZZOU or Ole miss either but those games are not definite losses like UGA, UF, or Bama. JG was the QB of our team last year with Pruitt as coach and we beat the tigers by multiple TDs.
Did you see that Mizzou team in October or November? They were far better team and would run us off the field. The first 2-3 games for any first-year coach are a challenge. This is why I don't like our chances against Pittsburgh even though they are a beatable team.

Missouri has not been an easy win for Tennessee since joining the SEC. They have a winning record against us. I think UT fans are constantly underestimating them (and the SEC in general).
 
Likes: PEPPERJAX
#23

PEPPERJAX

Let's Do A Ritual....
Joined
Jul 17, 2013
Messages
9,798
Likes
14,396
#23
Did you see that Mizzou team in October or November? They were far better team and would run us off the field. The first 2-3 games for any first-year coach are a challenge. This is why I don't like our chances against Pittsburgh even though they are a beatable team.

Missouri has not been an easy win for Tennessee since joining the SEC. They have a winning record against us. I think UT fans are constantly underestimating them (and the SEC in general).
We will find out when we play the games.
 
#25

secking

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2010
Messages
7,027
Likes
10,431
#25
I just don't see Kentucky getting to 5 SEC wins with their schedule. They have to run a gauntlet of Florida, LSU, and Georgia, before Mississippi State and then us. Even with a bye week afterwards, coming off three straight losses in physical games is going to take its toll on them, they'll screw around lose to Mississippi State or us.

I’d count SC Vandy MSU and possibly TN as wins for them, they give UF (heck) every year and had them beat there 2 years ago (after winning against them the previous year). I have them 4-4 but 5-3 is possible if everything falls in their favor against a team they are underdogs against, hard to guess how good LSU will be.
 

VN Store


Sponsors
 

Top