Outlook Moving Forward: Upcoming Games, QB Situation, the SEC

[chuck0303]

QD has thrown 22 passes. He hasn't proven anything.

It's very difficult to throw more passes from the Bench. Just what do you expect his stats to be from the bench?

 

[Volunteer Pride]

Oh, and UGA's game isn't nearly as impressive(imo) when you consider the refs did half the work for them last night. Maybe my eyes were tricking me but it seemed clear that UNC was gonna get zero calls to go their way.

I agree. After watching the UGA game last night I have the opinion that if you can shut down their running game you shut down their entire offense

 

[lawgator1]

If I'm a UT fan the most worrisome part of what I saw is that the team is filled by returning starters, which would suggest that the upside is limited.

It is axiomatic that a team improves the most from week one to week two, but of its mostly returning starters, how much room is left to get any better?

Same with an LSU.

UF and UGA both seem like they have a lot more upside potential.

 

[livefaith]

If anything, it's the reverse.

People consistently overrate Dobbs. Dobbs' passing stats for medium- and long- throws are some of the worst in the SEC. I think Vols' fans and the national media are being dishonest with themselves. Dobbs is not a good passer. Dobbs is a dual-threat QB who is great at improvising. There's nothing wrong with that, but it is what it is.

Which is why a game plan that mostly relies on Dobbs making medium and deep passes, but not using his natural running talents and ability for improvisation, is a bad game plan. Quinten Dormady is a much better passer than Dobbs and he's proven that repeatedly. I'm not saying QD gives us the "best chance at winning." I'm merely saying that QD and Dobbs have different sets of talents and the coaches should realize that.

This is more like Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer or David Greene and DJ Shockley. We could actually run a 2-QB system with these guys. What I object to is using a gameplan that's better suited to the "pocket passer" for the "dual threat QB". You have to play to your own players' strengths. The gameplan for App State played to Dobbs' weaknesses.

I agree with you on this. But, another way to look at it is, to let JD work on his weaknesses in a live scrimmage. Unfortunately, the scout team nearly won. :-o

 

[Remy]

Virginia Tech W
Ohio University W
Florida W
Georgia L(Georgia will be sky high for this game)
Texas A&M L
Alabama L
South Carolina W
Tennessee Tech W
Kentucky W
Missouri W
Vanderbilt W

Tennessee 9-3 5-3 in SEC

UGA being "sky high" for that game may be a bold prediction. Why? They play Ole Miss the week before us, the same Ole Miss who has beaten Bama 2 years in a row, the same Bama that blew UGA away for 2 straight years. Odds are UGA limps into that game trying to maintain health and with a loss to Ole Miss.

 

[Volnut67]

UGA being "sky high" for that game may be a bold prediction. Why? They play Ole Miss the week before us, the same Ole Miss who has beaten Bama 2 years in a row, the same Bama that blew UGA away for 2 straight years. Odds are UGA limps into that game trying to maintain health and with a loss to Ole Miss.

The stupid UGA fans and players think Tennessee cheapshot Nick Chubb(even though it's not true)and they will be looking to get even with Tennessee. That's why i think they will be charged up and have blood in their eyes. I think Tennessee can win if they make it through the early emotion by Georgia.

 

[BigOrange04]

If Dormandy plays behind this oline we may break a record for sacks allowed.

 

[TN Outlaw]

As a point of comparison, Clemson gave up 202 yards and 4.5 yards per carry against that App State offense last year. We gave up 184 yards on 43 carries, for 4.3 yards per carry.

Clemson had a defense good enough to make the national championship game last year. Our defense outperformed their national title game defense, and this App State team is probably better than last year's version. Defense was not the problem. The difference between us and Clemson 2015 is that we couldn't generate offense and made a lot of big mistakes.

I agree and our D played about as vanilla as a Shoop D can. Not much stunts, twists etc.

I will say that about 50% of the corner blitz's we ran that App had the perfect play call and or picked it up. Lamb did a pretty good job of making correct decisions. If we had a corner blitz off the strong side Lamb would hand it off to the back running to the weak side.

I still say if Shoop would have dialed our D up the entire game it would've looked even more impressive. He did late in the 4th and o/t and App went nowhere. Lot of pressure.

Question is when Debo opens up the playbook and Dobbs legs, can the offense clean up their little dumb mistakes and look like the offense they should?

 

[joevol33]

Very good post op.

 

[Catbone]

If I'm a UT fan the most worrisome part of what I saw is that the team is filled by returning starters, which would suggest that the upside is limited.

It is axiomatic that a team improves the most from week one to week two, but of its mostly returning starters, how much room is left to get any better?

Same with an LSU.

UF and UGA both seem like they have a lot more upside potential.

If I'm a UF fan I don't post on rival team message boards.

Jk kinda

 

[ice]

Just a few more thoughts on the game, the SEC, and our competition moving forward.


App State

App State is an incredibly good team. The sky is not falling. We played like crap against a very good and very tricky to stop team, but we still won.

The Defense was Spectacular. I don't mind people complaining about our overall performance, which was bad, but I'm baffled by all the people saying our "D-line got manhandled." Did we even watch the same game? I saw a Tennessee team that, if not for a muffed punt return, would have only given up 6 points to a team that averaged 37 points per game last year. Moreover, our defense has been much better against the pass than the run over the past few years. Just as a reminder, App State ran the ball 43 times and passed 23, which means they ran 65% of the time. We still contained them. We made them one-dimensional. They relied extensively on trick plays that we sniffed out repeatedly. Our defense played spectacular. Stop the "OUR DEFENSE SUCKS" bullcrap, people! If you think our defense played poorly, you don't know anything about defense.

Mistakes Prevented Us From Controlling the Game. Why did we struggle so much? Early mistakes. That's pretty much the story of the game. It's not that our lines got "outplayed" (though, our O-line did occasionally get outplayed, unfortunately). We let App State gain control early and that allowed them to play their run-heavy run-down-the-clock style of offense. If we had gone up 10-0 or 14-0 in the 1st Quarter, App State would've been forced to "air it out" and the results would not have been very good. This is why, while it's important to close out games, it's also important to start them out well, particularly against teams that run the ball well. By gaining control early, App State did not have to take risks in the passing game (and as we all saw, when they did have to take those "risks" they didn't fare very well against our secondary).

Shortening the Game. How much did App State shorten the game? We had 65 plays in regulation. Here are some comparisons from last year.

Vanderbilt: 77
Georgia: 90
Florida: 70
Bowling Green: 87
Arkansas: 70
Kentucky: 69
Alabama: 61
Northwestern: 83

App State limited us to fewer plays from scrimmage than almost any of our opponents last year, other than Alabama. And note, Bama had 69 plays in that game, whereas App State only had 62 plays in regulation against us. So the takeaway is that App State was incredibly effective at shortening the game. They would not have been as effective if we hadn't made so many early mistakes.

Vs Arkansas 2015. Anyone remember the last few times we played teams with similar offensive philosophies as App State? Arkansas 2015 is a good comparison. While App State and Arkansas have different running attacks, they both focus heavily on the run. We did not fare very well against Arkansas last year. We looked much better against the run versus App State this year. I don't think it's a bad comparison.


The QB Situation

Vanilla. One criticism I do agree with is that we played a very vanilla offense vs App State. I understand that's by design. We have a Murderer's Row stretch of games coming up that includes Va Tech, Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Bama. It's understandable that DeBord would not want to show too much of the playbook, but I think he also greatly underestimated App State.

Dobbs Does Not Do Well with Vanilla. Here's the thing: Dobbs may be the best overall QB on our team. However, he's not the best passer on our team, or even the best "game manager." I'm not sure whether this was a strategy by DeBord, or whether it was an intentional choice by Dobbs, but Dobbs very rarely ran in the App State game. His stat line reads 9 runs for -4 yards, but that includes sacks and busted plays. His long was only 13 yards and can only remember 1 or 2 true runs by Dobbs. I don't think Dobbs fares very well with a "vanilla" offense. He's an improvisor. He adds an extra dimension. He's not a "game manager" pocket-passing type of QB.

Dobbs vs Dormady. I don't want to ignite a QB controversy, because certainly there were games last year where Dobbs legs won us the game. Dobbs likely gives us the best chance against teams like Bama and Georgia. I do think, however, our staff needs to consider the fact that Quinten Dormady is a better fit for a "vanilla offense." If Debord is dedicated to going vanilla against Ohio two weeks from now, I think we'd be better off giving QD the start, rather than using only 50% of Dobbs' talents in the game. I understand that this is controversial and a lot of people hate the "2-QB system", but the problem here is that DeBord is putting Dobbs into situations where he can't thrive. If the goal is to protect Dobbs' health, then just throw Dormady in, rather than having Dobbs only utilize part of his talents. Dobbs is a mature leader and I think he can understand that. I just don't think we can continue this waffling act, where we make Dobbs the starter, but we make him walk on pins and needles in order to protect himself. Either we unleash Dobbs or we throw QD in the game.

Quinten Dormady. Some food for thought: if Dormady were on Florida or Georgia's roster, he'd likely be the starting QB.


The Rest of the SEC

Arkansas. We weren't the only ones to struggle this week. Arkansas barely beat a Louisiana Tech team that is likely nowhere near as good as App State. LA Tech was rated #81 in Sagarin last year and finished with a 9-4 record. Unlikely we play Arkansas this year, but still interesting.

Texas A&M. Looked very impressive against UCLA. Reiterates the idea that A&M may be one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season and that our visit to College Station will be one of the toughest games of the year.

Vanderbilt. Very good on defense. Terrible on offense. Pretty much what I expected from them.

Georgia. Don't sleep on them. That running game is one of the best in the nation. Very impressive win vs UNC. Btw, Georgia ran the ball 52 times and passed it 20 times. Chubb picked up 222 yards. While Greyson Lambert may have started, Jacob Eason got most of the work at QB. However, it's clear that UGA is going to try to avoid going to the air as much as possible. From our perspective, what we learned from App State is that we need to try to control the 1st half and force UGA into passing situations where we'll have an advantage.

Florida. Looked terrible vs UMass. Obviously, we played poorly this week, but UMass was a 3-9 team in a weak conference last season. Took till the 4th Quarter for Florida to get any separation. Frankly, I think our performance was more impressive than Florida's.

Missouri. Still has no offense whatsoever. Lost to West Virginia 26-11.

LSU. We don't play them this year, but LSU once again looked one-dimensional on offense against quality competition. Brandon Harris has a 6.9 QB rating. That's awful! Leonard Fournette is the entire offense. Defense was very good, as usual, but I don't think LSU can win the West solely by running Fournette every single play.

Alabama. Wow. That's all I have to say. Obviously, even in Knoxville, still the toughest game on our schedule.

Kentucky. Didn't see any of the game, but they lost to Southern Miss in Lexington. Southern Miss is a good team, but still a bad loss for Kentucky.


Outlook Moving Forward.

Virginia Tech. Va Tech played a cupcake game in Week 1 vs Liberty, so difficult to draw any conclusions from that. A lot of the VT fans think the close-call with App State is a good sign for them, but I think it means our Vols come into the VT game much more focused than they would've otherwise. Should be a very interesting game, one way or another. VT is capable of beating us if we play poorly. If we play well, then we win the game.

Ohio. As I said, I think we should start Quinten Dormady against Ohio if we're going to play "vanilla." It's not a QB controversy. It's just a realization that QD at 100% is better than Dobbs at 70%.

Our Schedule. I don't think there were any huge surprises to me from the teams on our schedule. Every team performed about as I expected, except for Florida. And Florida may have been a similar opening-week sleepwalk act, so I wouldn't draw too many dramatic conclusions from that. Otherwise, Kentucky still looked weak, Missouri and Vandy still had no offense, South Carolina look OK but not great, Alabama looked spectacular, A&M proved they are underrated, and Georgia looked impressive albeit one-dimensional on offense.

Jacob Eason. Perhaps the only thing we did learn is that Jacob Eason may be starting for Georgia by the time we visit Athens.

My observations were the opposite of yours. I thought our whole team played bad.
Shoops defense did not impress me, especially in the first half.
Offensive play calling just plain sucks.
If things continue like they are now, we will be lucky to get 9 wins.

 

[pimo1]

Yes the muffed punt and stupid penalties hurt. But the story of the game was the Oline play. They struggled against a small, fast and athletic Dline. It was like watching an elephant swat at mosquitoes.

what stupid penalties? if you mean JRM that was just bad luck. JRM did exactly what he should have done in that situation and so did the refs. They knew it was not intentional and it was the returner not calling for the fair catch that was really to blame. But they have to make that call in that situation every single time. I don't remember any boneheaded penalties by our guys the whole game and I watched every second. There was the one bad call on the back of endzone touchdown but such is life.

We came out and got bit by some bad luck but I think in the end we come out better because of it. We walked away with the W and no injuries that's enough for me. Butch will fix the rest. The only real worry for me was the amount of penetration they were able to get on our O-line. I was very very disturbed by that and until week 3 when I see them play Miami won't know if its because they are that good (and honestly I think they are and they beat Miami) or our O-line is that bad. they seemed to have found a weakness between LT and LG and were exploiting it all night.

 

[Volnut67]

what stupid penalties? if you mean JRM that was just bad luck. JRM did exactly what he should have done in that situation and so did the refs. They knew it was not intentional and it was the returner not calling for the fair catch that was really to blame. But they have to make that call in that situation every single time. I don't remember any boneheaded penalties by our guys the whole game and I watched every second. There was the one bad call on the back of endzone touchdown but such is life.

We came out and got bit by some bad luck but I think in the end we come out better because of it. We walked away with the W and no injuries that's enough for me. Butch will fix the rest. The only real worry for me was the amount of penetration they were able to get on our O-line. I was very very disturbed by that and until week 3 when I see them play Miami won't know if its because they are that good (and honestly I think they are and they beat Miami) or our O-line is that bad. they seemed to have found a weakness between LT and LG and were exploiting it all night.

I think App State loses to Miami also(their last loss in a 10-2 2016 season). I think Miami goes 9-3 in Richt's first season and plays in the ACCCG.

 

[hmhawk]

If I'm a UF fan I don't post on rival team message boards.

Jk kinda

Castro won't let them have a message board. Gotta keep the masses ignorant. NOT kidding.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

If I'm a UT fan the most worrisome part of what I saw is that the team is filled by returning starters, which would suggest that the upside is limited.

Eh. Take a look at our 2-deep. Not a lot of Seniors there still. We're no longer playing a lot of Freshmen as starters, but we have a lot of Juniors and Sophomores. So I don't think upside is 'more limited' than Georgia or Florida.

 

[LittleCat]

Eh. Take a look at our 2-deep. Not a lot of Seniors there still. We're no longer playing a lot of Freshmen as starters, but we have a lot of Juniors and Sophomores. So I don't think upside is 'more limited' than Georgia or Florida.

Still, you have a lot of players who are juniors who are already in their third year playing regularly. Hurd, Thomas, Robertson, Barnett, Kelly, Moseley, etc. Some big time players that probably won't get that much better, because they've already gone through so much on the field for two years.

 

[AboveAllNations]

If Debord is dedicated to going vanilla against Ohio two weeks from now, I think we'd be better off giving QD the start, rather than using only 50% of Dobbs' talents in the game. I understand that this is controversial and a lot of people hate the "2-QB system", but the problem here is that DeBord is putting Dobbs into situations where he can't thrive. If the goal is to protect Dobbs' health, then just throw Dormady in, rather than having Dobbs only utilize part of his talents. Dobbs is a mature leader and I think he can understand that. I just don't think we can continue this waffling act, where we make Dobbs the starter, but we make him walk on pins and needles in order to protect himself. Either we unleash Dobbs or we throw QD in the game.

Unless you're worried about our ability to beat Ohio, this is an extremely dumb idea. Dobbs needs to improve his passing and our receivers need to improve their chemistry with Dobbs; benching Dobbs (or running him around in a "non-vanilla" gameplan we would otherwise save for better opponents) would stunt that development.

Dormady will have plenty of garbage time opportunities to get experience this year, but there's no guarantee that he'll even be the starter next season. We need to go ALL IN for whatever gives us the best chance to win the SEC, and starting a gratuitous QB controversy with the senior leader of the team isn't the answer.

 

[MrBiggles]

The commentators in the NW Bowl game said last year that in order for Tennessee to compete in the SEC that we must consistently be able to pass the football down the field to take pressure off the running game. Until Dobbs shows that he can consistently hit his WR down the field or on critical 3rd downs and long (over 10) then Ds are going to load the box, hold contain and force Dobbs to beat us with his arm. I would expect that they will also spy on Kamara out of the backfield so Dobbs has to be able to get the ball to Malone, Smith, Williams, Croom, Wolfe and the likes to keep the D off balance.

 

[Joevol77]

This is true to some extent, but I think people are going overboard on this narrative. The O-line had a number of lapses, but not every bad play was the result of that.

For instance, there was one play where Dobbs was sacked after having over 6 seconds to throw the ball. The O-line gave him great protection on that play, but they can't stop the D-line forever. If you look at the sky-cam on that play, the entire left side of the field was clear. Why didn't Dobbs run with 20+ yards of clear field to the left of him?

Was it because he was instructed not to put himself in situations where he might get injured? Or did he simply not see the opening? I don't know the answer and no one other than DeBord and Dobbs do. But the Dobbs of 2015 would've taken off there and it would've been the right decision.

If we're telling Dobbs to not take big chances running the ball against our weaker opponents, I think we're better off starting QD in those games. I don't like the "only use 70% of the QB's talents in order to protect him" strategy. Either we unleash Dobbs at 100% or we use a perfectly capable backup who would be starting for most of the teams in the SEC right now.

If they indeed told Dobbs not to run then I agree, just don't play him. If you ask someone not to do what comes natural, you are asking for injury.

 

[calban]

Best offensive flow I've seen from Bama in years and that's a true freshman. Hope it was a FLUKE.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Virginia Tech W
Ohio University W
Florida W
Georgia L(Georgia will be sky high for this game)
Texas A&M L
Alabama L
South Carolina W
Tennessee Tech W
Kentucky W
Missouri W
Vanderbilt W

Tennessee 9-3 5-3 in SEC

If there are no significant, catastrophic injuries your predictions would be considered a failure.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

If Dormandy plays behind this oline we may break a record for sacks allowed.

Can I ask a question? Is it really that hard to look up utsports and get the last name of our players right?

 

[Volnut67]

If there are no significant, catastrophic injuries your predictions would be considered a failure.

Still a better record than 2015 and Tennessee beats Florida. This would be kind of like 2004.