Outlook for the next few years

#51
#51
LWSVOL said:
since 1950, the vols average 7.5 wins per year so he beats that average getting 8-9 per year.. he may never win a natty... very difficult especially being in this conference..
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Legitimate question here. Is it really more difficult to win a national championship in 2026 then it was in 1992? Don't you have to pretty much beat everyone that is in front of you to become the champion? I don't know that there are any more legitimate title contenders in college football than there were 35 years ago.
 
#53
#53
Kind of seen this movie before. I will say there is hope. I mean Indiana just won a Natty.
 
#55
#55
BreatheUT said:
I'm glad someone pointed this out. What a silly metric.

There's only been 29 champions.......well yeah in 36 years. And the reason there aren't more is because of Alabama, then Florida. I'm definitely shocked there isn't less.
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That's because there actually is less. There have only been 19. In those 37 years, there have been 40 National Champions crowned. 90, 91, 97, and 03 both had two crowned. 1990 had two unique champions.
 
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#56
#56
livefaith said:
Legitimate question here. Is it really more difficult to win a national championship in 2026 then it was in 1992? Don't you have to pretty much beat everyone that is in front of you to become the champion? I don't know that there are any more legitimate title contenders in college football than there were 35 years ago.
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the problem for Tennessee, which was my focus, is playing in the SEC and playing a 9 game schedule. Many fans think Tennessee has an easy path to the CFP due to being in SEC and there being 12 teams picked. 4 SEC losses is not going to get you in the CFP. Getting through the conference with less than 4 losses is going to be difficult for most of the SEC.

We will see more upsets in conference than ever. Teams overlook the lower level teams when playing them after playing so many higher level teams. IMO, we will find out this year how brutal this SEC is going to be going forward.

and yes, you have to win most games to have a chance at a championship. I agree not many schools can be penciled in as legimate title contenders. a handful is it...
 
#57
#57
The offseason didn’t go exactly as we hoped for. I wouldn’t call it a rebuilding year in the age of the transfer portal. It’s a “damage control” year. We have the stars to beat some good teams, but I don’t see the depth to beat enough good teams.

Hopefully we do well enough to avoid turnover and next year I expect us to spend more aggressively. Josh Heupel is a real ball coach and not a pretender. I see no reason to panic before we play our first Power 5 game.

It’s somewhat odd: For more than a decade we had a bunch of average SEC guys with too few stars. Now we have a bunch of 5 star youngsters and are short on four star upperclassmen.
 
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#59
#59
We are always giving excuses about how young we are. We have been one of the youngest rosters in the league
for several years. Everyone else talks about re-loading, we always talk about re-building. Year 6 and we are nowhere
close to SEC title. CJH is what he is. 8-3 or 9-4 and will sprinkle a 10-2 in occasionally. He will not be an SEC champ.
Only way we get to a playoff is through expansion to 16 or 24. We will have to be satisfied with that and we will not
go deep in the playoffs.
 
#60
#60
orangemadam said:
We are always giving excuses about how young we are. We have been one of the youngest rosters in the league
for several years. Everyone else talks about re-loading, we always talk about re-building. Year 6 and we are nowhere
close to SEC title. CJH is what he is. 8-3 or 9-4 and will sprinkle a 10-2 in occasionally. He will not be an SEC champ.
Only way we get to a playoff is through expansion to 16 or 24. We will have to be satisfied with that and we will not
go deep in the playoffs.
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I wonder how long folks are going to be satisfied being the "lesser" SEC team in TN? For me, one season is too long.
 
#61
#61
AstonRoyal said:
2026 will be Heupel's 6th season with us, and it feels like the general consensus amongst the Tennessee fans is that we're not expecting much this year and it will be a rebuilding year of sorts with us having to break in a new QB and learn a new Defense.

If we were to think big picture about our program and think about where we're going even beyond this upcoming season, how confident do you feel about Tennessee football and where we'll be in the next few years? Do you see championships in the next 3, 4, 5+ years? If not Is there a point in your mind where you think it's time for a change, so for example if it's Josh's 10 year and we haven't made it past the 1st round of the playoffs do we make a change?

I struggle because I feel like it would be reasonable to want a championship in the next 3 years. I feel like up until this point, Coach Heupel has done very well, but we need to take the next step to become great. I do feel confident from a tactical standpoint in Heupel's offense and Knowles defense. And I love the work that the new Strength and Conditioning coach has done and feel like it'll go a long way with developing mentally stronger and tougher players. But looking at our roster, it feels like the talent and potential is good but not quite championship level. And while Heupel's talent acquisition has been good up until this point, it hasn't quite reached the level of top tier whether it be HS Recruiting or Transfers. And it also doesn't feel like he's shown much improvement with game management and discipline which has been issues during his time here.

So my confidence in the next few years at our current trajectory is Luke Warm. Whether it's reasonable or unreasonable my hope and expectation is for a championship. And while I like the steps we've taken in improving the Staff, I'm uncertain that we have or will acquire enough quality top tier talent that would be necessary to win a Championship.

What are y'alls thoughts?
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My thoughts are, we have the budget capacity to win it all. We don’t have a HC to win it. We have able and willing boosters. We have a coach and an AD that have pulled back on the portal, apparently due to probation restrictions.

I see a coach in Heupel that in a room with Vitello and Barnes, he’s the odd man. It’s year 6 and we shouldn’t be in wait and see mode. Heupel better hope this S&C coach has a massive impact, because fans aren’t going to tolerate 7-5. Players won’t either and all the effort of building that young roster could evaporate when the winter portal opens.
 
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#63
#63
I think Heupel will continue to crank out 8-9 win seasons, with the occasional 10 win team. But I don’t see any evidence that suggests Tennessee becoming elite/true championship contender. The question of whether that is acceptable is up for debate.

However, our program, like it or not, is still tarnished in the minds of many from the 2008-2020 era and I don’t think consistently winning 8-9 games with the occasional playoff birth for a decade would be the worst thing whatsoever. This is not the long term goal, but it’s a long way to the top if you want to rock and roll and proven coaches are hard to come by, as we definitely know.
 
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#65
#65
orangemadam said:
We are always giving excuses about how young we are. We have been one of the youngest rosters in the league
for several years. Everyone else talks about re-loading, we always talk about re-building. Year 6 and we are nowhere
close to SEC title. CJH is what he is. 8-3 or 9-4 and will sprinkle a 10-2 in occasionally. He will not be an SEC champ.
Only way we get to a playoff is through expansion to 16 or 24. We will have to be satisfied with that and we will not
go deep in the playoffs.
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What a sorry a$$ attitude. "He will not be an SEC Champ." LMAO, ok Nostradamus.
 
#68
#68
orangemadam said:
We are always giving excuses about how young we are. We have been one of the youngest rosters in the league
for several years. Everyone else talks about re-loading, we always talk about re-building. Year 6 and we are nowhere
close to SEC title. CJH is what he is. 8-3 or 9-4 and will sprinkle a 10-2 in occasionally. He will not be an SEC champ.
Only way we get to a playoff is through expansion to 16 or 24. We will have to be satisfied with that and we will not
go deep in the playoffs.
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facts are not excuses..

19 Srs
17 Jrs
39 Sos
41 FRs

36 upper classmen
80 underclassmen.

its a fact we are young

If he wins 8-10 games a year, he is improving the average number of wins that Tennessee has produced since 1950 (7.5 average).

lack of championships is a valid argument regarding CJH...

roster has generally be the issue when coming to winning a championship for Josh. Developing a championship roster can be a challenge. The bulk of your high school recruiting is mostly completed prior to knowing what players to retain and what players you lose to the portal. SO roster management is a challenge and MOST FBS coaches struggle with building a championship roster. Josh needs to figure out how to do that but that is a negative at this point. IMO
 
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#69
#69
LWSVOL said:
facts are not excuses..

19 Srs
17 Jrs
39 Sos
41 FRs

36 upper classmen
80 underclassmen.

its a fact we are young

If he wins 8-10 games a year, he is improving the average number of wins that Tennessee has produced since 1950 (7.5 average).

lack of championships is a valid argument regarding CJH...

roster has generally be the issue when coming to winning a championship for Josh. Developing a championship roster can be a challenge. The bulk of your high school recruiting is mostly completed prior to knowing what players to retain and what players you lose to the portal. SO roster management is a challenge and MOST FBS coaches struggle with building a championship roster. Josh needs to figure out how to do that but that is a negative at this point. IMO
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Appreciate the data, but the existence of the portal means we don't have to be so young 6 years in. Us being this young is a reflection of Heupel's approach to make HS recruiting the foundation of his roster approach. He could be far more involved in the portal if he chose to be. So while it may be factual that we're young, it's because Heupel chose this path. For better or worse he's gotta own it.
 
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#70
#70
GSPVol said:
Appreciate the data, but the existence of the portal means we don't have to be so young 6 years in. Us being this young is a reflection of Heupel's approach to make HS recruiting the foundation of his roster approach. He could be far more involved in the portal if he chose to be. So while it may be factual that we're young, it's because Heupel chose this path. For better or worse he's gotta own it.
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sure, as I indicated at the end of post he has to handle it.

Its not a certainty that playing heavy portal will lead to anything but a more experienced roster. Can the staff get enough portal talent to play at a championship level? Is the money there to retain the better players from the roster plus get the best players in the portal??

Is money the reason they have went more with recruiting classes then players from the portal? One could argue that the 9 three stars committed is because they use less budget then 4 and 5 stars. Maybe paying less for portal players is why we get the players we get?? We have had some good production from portal players and some are just bodies, as are some of the recruiting classes..

I'm not saying money is an issue, I don't know if it is or not. I'm just posing questions on why the recruiting strategy is how its been.
 
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#72
#72
ftsandersvol said:
Really good teams aren’t rebuilding in year 6. They have secured a roster that is truly next man up regardless how many they lose to the draft. Excuses only satisfy the people that make them.
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Really good teams absolutely have the money to buy the roster they want and get results. The Ohio State buzzsaw we hit in the playoffs was a very highly paid group.

The CFP winners have consistently been high spenders until this past year when it can be argued Indiana was an outlier to the norm.

Usually, tOSU, MI, Bama, GA have been teams that have recruited extremely well (paid well for elite young talent) and gotten who they wanted from the portal (paid to fill holes) for several years in a row.

If we're not going to spend the dough with tOSU, TX, aTm, etc..... we're not going to win a Natty.
 
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#74
#74
DarkVolder said:
7-6 or 8-5 again is my prediction for this season but i could also see 4-8 or 5-7. We could conceivably lose every SEC game. Heupel is back for 2027 regardless though.
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Yeah Heupel is back for 2027 if he goes 4-8 with a revamped defense and outside of the quarterback position, the best roster he’s ever had at UT. Makes perfect sense. If we go 4-8 then he’ll be out the door, his buddy DW won’t be able to save him from the fanbase if we go back to winning 4 games in a season.
 
#75
#75
GBO2011 said:
Yeah Heupel is back for 2027 if he goes 4-8 with a revamped defense and outside of the quarterback position, the best roster he’s ever had at UT. Makes perfect sense. If we go 4-8 then he’ll be out the door, his buddy DW won’t be able to save him from the fanbase if we go back to winning 4 games in a season.
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We'd owe Josh Heupel $27M if he's fired after this year, I believe.

That drops to $18M around the end of 2027, I think.

Those are decent chunks of money when you consider we're likely going to have to promise a big NIL investment every year to get a good coach, possibly help buy out the contract of that good coach, and be ready to pay them at least the $9M / yr we're paying Josh Heupel.

I'm not certain fan pressure translates into big donor coaching buyout money + promised yearly NIL investment + money to replace lots of the coaching staff.
 
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