DiderotsGhost
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It's the offseason and I felt like writing something. So here are my reasons for optimism versus reasons for modest expectations for the 2018 season.
The Orange Colored Glasses View
Here's the orange-colored glasses argument for our why our Vols could be significantly better than the media thinks.
Severe underperformance in 2017. We may have been 4-8 last season, but it wasn't because we didn't have talent. Look at any of the recruiting services and it's clear we had top 10 or at least top 15 type talent. Based on talent alone, we should've gone 8-4 or 9-3. The previous staff severely underperformed given this. Once again, if we're going solely on talent level, our expected record is probably somewhere in the 8-4 to 9-3 range. If Pruitt & Co can harness the most out of these players, it's easy to envision us winning quite a few more than last season.
Nowhere to go but up on offense. On many statistical measures, we were among the worst 10 offenses in the NCAA last season. On a talent-adjusted basis, you can make the case we were "THE" worst in the entire NCAA. So it's virtually impossible for the 2018 offense to be any worse than the 2017 offense. Of course, the real question is 'how much improvement will we see', but I can guarantee that the offense will be better this year than last.
Close losses. In spite of a historically awful season, we weren't nearly as bad as the 4-8 record indicated. Many of those losses were close ones, including Florida (6 points), South Carolina (6 points), and Kentucky (3 points). Arguably, with a decent set of coaches, we would've won all 3 of those games last season and been 7-5.
We lose very few starters on offense and defense. We lose Kahlil McKenzie, Kendal Vickers, and John Kelly. Not a lot of losses for an SEC team. The only area where we'll take a big hit is on Special Teams, where we lose Trevor Daniel, Aaron Medley, and Evan Berry. The good news is that Cimaglia, who replaces Medley, already has a year under his belt at Kicker, so that transition should be easier, but we'll have to see about Punter and Kick Returner.
JG was better than most think. When you consider that our O-line was a trainwreck last season and we had no solid 'possession receivers', JG's stats were pretty damn good. 62% completion rate, 7.2 ypa, 2 TD/INT ratio, and 129 rating. When compared to other Freshmen and Sophomore UT QBs of the past 15 years, only Erik Ainge and Josh Dobbs had better numbers, and even then JG was much better than Sophomore Erik Ainge (and arguably close to Freshman Ainge). JG is so much better than most people realize. He just needs an O-line to protect him and a real QB coach. Regardless of whether JG or Chryst wins the starting job, I think we'll see improvement at QB.
Wide Receivers could be "Most Improved" position group. WR was a position of weakness last season, particularly after we lost JJ. Marquez Callaway was extremely good at times and Brandon Johnson really came on at the very end of the season, but we did not have many reliable WRs beyond those two. Getting back Jennings will be big, but we also will hopefully have improved versions of Callaway and Johnson.
Pruitt working hard on O-line. Our O-line was a disaster last season, but it's clear Pruitt understands this is a problem, and has taken great efforts to shore up the line. Don't expect miracles, but adding Brandon Kennedy is pretty big. We also gain Jerome Carvin. We bring back superstar Trey Smith, as well as big potential contributors in Drew Richmond, Ryan Johnson, and Marcus Tatus. I still expect the O-line to be a weakness overall, but hopefully it goes from like a "2" (out of 10) to a "6".
Tyson Helton was really good at Western Kentucky. Turning around our disaster of an offense in one season will be a challenge, but Helton's offenses at Western Kentucky were *really* good. Mind you, it's not the SEC, but it was rare for WKU under Helton to score under 35 points in a game. The 2015 squad (Helton's 2nd season) went 12-2 and only had 2 games with under 35 points (@ LSU, @ Vanderbilt).
We have more talent than most realize on defense. Our defense underperformed last season. Part of it was injuries. Part of it was the offense keeping the D on the field too long. Part of it may have been coaching as well (I'm now convinced that Brady Hoke is well past his prime at this point.) But talent wise, we're not at a shortage with guys like Nigel Warrior, Daniel Bituli, Kyle Phillips, and Darrell Taylor. If Shy Tuttle and DK Jr can come back anywhere close to 100%, this is not a bad defense personnel-wise. They just need better coaching, better S&C, and better game-planning.
Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina are all winnable games. For whatever reason, the media seems to think we'll suck again this season, but Florida goes from 4-7 basement dweller to SEC East power in one season. I think Dan Mullen is a great coach who will get Florida "back" but Florida's roster is actually in worse shape than ours for the re-build and the game is in Knoxville. West Virginia will have a high-powered offense, but their defense will be beatable. They are also arguably one of the most overrated teams this pre-season. And while I think South Carolina could be the 2nd best team in the East, remember that this is a team that we were damn close to beating last year (and probably should've beaten).
The Modest Expectations View
There are legit reasons for optimism, but here are the reasons to 'pump the brakes' and brace for modest expectations.
Great coaches typically aren't "great" in Year 1. This is a surprisingly consistent theme in college football. Saban was 7-6 at Alabama. Pete Carroll was 6-6 at USC. Stoops was 7-5 at Oklahoma. Kirby Smart was 8-5 at Georgia. Mark Richt went 8-4. Gene Stallings was 7-5 at Bama. Dabo Swinney was 9-5 (and didn't hit his stride until his 4th full season). The list goes on and on. There are a few exceptions to the rule (Spurrier was 9-2 during his first season at Florida), but by and large, it's rare for great coaches to turn things around before Year 2 at the earliest.
Change in philosophy on both sides of the ball. Switching to a 3-4 from a 4-3 is a particularly difficult transition and one that rarely goes well in Year 1. While Pruitt wants to keeps some flexibility in the defensive scheme, he does seem committed to a 3-4 base in Year 1. It's difficult to tell how that transition will go since many guys will be playing new roles. Kongbo and Darrell Taylor move to OLB, for instance. Also losing Kahlil McKenzie may be a bigger blow than it seems, as he was ideally suited for the Nose Tackle position in the 3-4 much more so than a DT in a 4-3. Also a complete switch on offense, as well, but seems like it's difficult to go downhill from 'nearly worst in the country' anyway.
Tough schedule. I don't know why it is, but we always seem to draw our SEC West opponents when they are at the 'top of the cycle' so to speak. We never get the teams in their down years. This year is no different with an Auburn team that is a potential national title contender. Add Alabama and Georgia and there are already 3 games that are going to be extremely difficult to win. And while WV, Florida, SC, and Mizzou are all winnable, it's going to be tough to win all of those games.
O-line is still a weakness. I think the O-line will improve this season, but I don't see it going from 'awful' to 'elite' in 1 year. Assuming the turnaround goes well, we still probably end up with a middling O-line this season. Hopefully, better than last season, but we're still going to struggle against the likes of Bama and Georgia.
Offense may not improve enough. It's tough to go from 'last in the SEC' to 'great' in one season. While Helton was great at WKU, he took over a pretty good offense.
One injury away ... . We're still one injury away from being a much lesser team at many position groups including WR, O-line, and D-line.
The End
No predictions. I'm just going to enjoy the season. I think we'll be better than "the media" thinks, but tough to say where we'll end up. 6-6, 7-5, 8-4? Your guess is as good as mine. Hoping for a bowl game at least.
OK, maybe one prediction. We'll beat Florida. That's my only prediction for the season.
Can the season hurry up and start? 5 more weeks and football is back. Just gotta survive 5 weeks. That's it.
The Orange Colored Glasses View
Here's the orange-colored glasses argument for our why our Vols could be significantly better than the media thinks.
Severe underperformance in 2017. We may have been 4-8 last season, but it wasn't because we didn't have talent. Look at any of the recruiting services and it's clear we had top 10 or at least top 15 type talent. Based on talent alone, we should've gone 8-4 or 9-3. The previous staff severely underperformed given this. Once again, if we're going solely on talent level, our expected record is probably somewhere in the 8-4 to 9-3 range. If Pruitt & Co can harness the most out of these players, it's easy to envision us winning quite a few more than last season.
Nowhere to go but up on offense. On many statistical measures, we were among the worst 10 offenses in the NCAA last season. On a talent-adjusted basis, you can make the case we were "THE" worst in the entire NCAA. So it's virtually impossible for the 2018 offense to be any worse than the 2017 offense. Of course, the real question is 'how much improvement will we see', but I can guarantee that the offense will be better this year than last.
Close losses. In spite of a historically awful season, we weren't nearly as bad as the 4-8 record indicated. Many of those losses were close ones, including Florida (6 points), South Carolina (6 points), and Kentucky (3 points). Arguably, with a decent set of coaches, we would've won all 3 of those games last season and been 7-5.
We lose very few starters on offense and defense. We lose Kahlil McKenzie, Kendal Vickers, and John Kelly. Not a lot of losses for an SEC team. The only area where we'll take a big hit is on Special Teams, where we lose Trevor Daniel, Aaron Medley, and Evan Berry. The good news is that Cimaglia, who replaces Medley, already has a year under his belt at Kicker, so that transition should be easier, but we'll have to see about Punter and Kick Returner.
JG was better than most think. When you consider that our O-line was a trainwreck last season and we had no solid 'possession receivers', JG's stats were pretty damn good. 62% completion rate, 7.2 ypa, 2 TD/INT ratio, and 129 rating. When compared to other Freshmen and Sophomore UT QBs of the past 15 years, only Erik Ainge and Josh Dobbs had better numbers, and even then JG was much better than Sophomore Erik Ainge (and arguably close to Freshman Ainge). JG is so much better than most people realize. He just needs an O-line to protect him and a real QB coach. Regardless of whether JG or Chryst wins the starting job, I think we'll see improvement at QB.
Wide Receivers could be "Most Improved" position group. WR was a position of weakness last season, particularly after we lost JJ. Marquez Callaway was extremely good at times and Brandon Johnson really came on at the very end of the season, but we did not have many reliable WRs beyond those two. Getting back Jennings will be big, but we also will hopefully have improved versions of Callaway and Johnson.
Pruitt working hard on O-line. Our O-line was a disaster last season, but it's clear Pruitt understands this is a problem, and has taken great efforts to shore up the line. Don't expect miracles, but adding Brandon Kennedy is pretty big. We also gain Jerome Carvin. We bring back superstar Trey Smith, as well as big potential contributors in Drew Richmond, Ryan Johnson, and Marcus Tatus. I still expect the O-line to be a weakness overall, but hopefully it goes from like a "2" (out of 10) to a "6".
Tyson Helton was really good at Western Kentucky. Turning around our disaster of an offense in one season will be a challenge, but Helton's offenses at Western Kentucky were *really* good. Mind you, it's not the SEC, but it was rare for WKU under Helton to score under 35 points in a game. The 2015 squad (Helton's 2nd season) went 12-2 and only had 2 games with under 35 points (@ LSU, @ Vanderbilt).
We have more talent than most realize on defense. Our defense underperformed last season. Part of it was injuries. Part of it was the offense keeping the D on the field too long. Part of it may have been coaching as well (I'm now convinced that Brady Hoke is well past his prime at this point.) But talent wise, we're not at a shortage with guys like Nigel Warrior, Daniel Bituli, Kyle Phillips, and Darrell Taylor. If Shy Tuttle and DK Jr can come back anywhere close to 100%, this is not a bad defense personnel-wise. They just need better coaching, better S&C, and better game-planning.
Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina are all winnable games. For whatever reason, the media seems to think we'll suck again this season, but Florida goes from 4-7 basement dweller to SEC East power in one season. I think Dan Mullen is a great coach who will get Florida "back" but Florida's roster is actually in worse shape than ours for the re-build and the game is in Knoxville. West Virginia will have a high-powered offense, but their defense will be beatable. They are also arguably one of the most overrated teams this pre-season. And while I think South Carolina could be the 2nd best team in the East, remember that this is a team that we were damn close to beating last year (and probably should've beaten).
The Modest Expectations View
There are legit reasons for optimism, but here are the reasons to 'pump the brakes' and brace for modest expectations.
Great coaches typically aren't "great" in Year 1. This is a surprisingly consistent theme in college football. Saban was 7-6 at Alabama. Pete Carroll was 6-6 at USC. Stoops was 7-5 at Oklahoma. Kirby Smart was 8-5 at Georgia. Mark Richt went 8-4. Gene Stallings was 7-5 at Bama. Dabo Swinney was 9-5 (and didn't hit his stride until his 4th full season). The list goes on and on. There are a few exceptions to the rule (Spurrier was 9-2 during his first season at Florida), but by and large, it's rare for great coaches to turn things around before Year 2 at the earliest.
Change in philosophy on both sides of the ball. Switching to a 3-4 from a 4-3 is a particularly difficult transition and one that rarely goes well in Year 1. While Pruitt wants to keeps some flexibility in the defensive scheme, he does seem committed to a 3-4 base in Year 1. It's difficult to tell how that transition will go since many guys will be playing new roles. Kongbo and Darrell Taylor move to OLB, for instance. Also losing Kahlil McKenzie may be a bigger blow than it seems, as he was ideally suited for the Nose Tackle position in the 3-4 much more so than a DT in a 4-3. Also a complete switch on offense, as well, but seems like it's difficult to go downhill from 'nearly worst in the country' anyway.
Tough schedule. I don't know why it is, but we always seem to draw our SEC West opponents when they are at the 'top of the cycle' so to speak. We never get the teams in their down years. This year is no different with an Auburn team that is a potential national title contender. Add Alabama and Georgia and there are already 3 games that are going to be extremely difficult to win. And while WV, Florida, SC, and Mizzou are all winnable, it's going to be tough to win all of those games.
O-line is still a weakness. I think the O-line will improve this season, but I don't see it going from 'awful' to 'elite' in 1 year. Assuming the turnaround goes well, we still probably end up with a middling O-line this season. Hopefully, better than last season, but we're still going to struggle against the likes of Bama and Georgia.
Offense may not improve enough. It's tough to go from 'last in the SEC' to 'great' in one season. While Helton was great at WKU, he took over a pretty good offense.
One injury away ... . We're still one injury away from being a much lesser team at many position groups including WR, O-line, and D-line.
The End
No predictions. I'm just going to enjoy the season. I think we'll be better than "the media" thinks, but tough to say where we'll end up. 6-6, 7-5, 8-4? Your guess is as good as mine. Hoping for a bowl game at least.
OK, maybe one prediction. We'll beat Florida. That's my only prediction for the season.
Can the season hurry up and start? 5 more weeks and football is back. Just gotta survive 5 weeks. That's it.
