Optimistic about the 4 game stretch

[swchandler1988]

Fair warning, this is a long post but worth the read. I know that this is a big worry for many people, but after thinking about it and researching a few things I feel like we're in a pretty good spot going into this gauntlet.

home: Florida game: Luke Del Rio (previously 2nd string QB at Oregon St.) has his first real start against an SEC team (play UK 2 weeks before). This initiation for Luke will be against one of the top defenses in the country, with 102,455 bloodthirsty fans screaming their heads off. UF lost RB Kelvin Taylor to the draft last year and replace him with Jordan Scarlett who had under 200 yards rushing last year. Not to mention we will have 11 years of hatred reigning down on them. The last two years this game should have been ours and we know it. Third time's the charm.

at UGA: Given this one is in Athens, big away games like this are never a cinch. But they'll be starting a brand new QB, again playing against some destroyers on the UT defense. Chubb will be coming back from injury and there's a HALFWAY DECENT chance he won't be who he was when he was healthy. UGA's schedule leading up to our game also helps us out. They play UNC (#20) in the Georgia Dome week 1, a gimme game against Nicholls State week 2, at Mizz week 3, at Ole Miss (#12) week 4, then us. Let's not forget, yeah last year's game we were down 24-3 before our comeback. But, take away Hurd's fumble inside their 5 yard line (and the TD fumble return by their player) and the game is only 17-10. Point is we were more in that game than it looked like, and the fact that we still came back and won makes our resolve even more impressive.

at Texas AM ("the trap game"): Up against a good QB in Trevor Knight, however he hasn't played football in two years and our defense is much better than when he played us at OU in 2014. Some doubters in his corner too College Sports: Ex-Sumlin player, ESPN analystÂ*has his doubts about Texas A&M's Trevor Knight | SportsDay. They replace their running back with Keith Ford, who, while an awesome recruit out of high school (class of 2013), couldn't hack it at OU behind Perine (who we stuffed last year for 78 yards) so he transferred to A&M in 2014 and sat out last year. Yes, yes, Myles Garrett is a good player, but overall their D ranked 51st last year (ours was 36th). Lastly, they play UCLA (#24), Prairie view (gimme), at Auburn, Arkansas (in Arlington at Jerry's house), and at South Carolina leading up to us. I don't care who you are that's not an easy schedule to start the season. Talk about a gauntlet.

home: Alabama: It's Alabama. Never gonna be easy, there really isn't a good way to sugar coat it. But we were one play away last year from beating them in their house, and they'll be starting a new QB and a new RB. Not that that's anything new to them, but experience and knowledge is 100% on our side (not to mention our home field advantage). Last year I think the fact they were at the end of a streak playing UGA, ARK and A&M helped us. This year, they play Southern Cal first game, then at Ole Miss in week 3, UK week 5 and at ARK the week before us. They won't be fresh either. Our bye week is the weekend after this game.

That's all I've got. It took me a while to put all this together so please be kind hope it makes your outlook a little better for this stretch of games.

 

[UT-Rex]

home: Alabama: It's Alabama. ... But we were one play away last year from beating them in their house,

Excellent, I believe !

But, what one play are you referring to in that game?

I recall we were about 80 +/- yards away / a daunting task but doable, but the ball was striped.

 

[#1ManningFan]

IMO if we beat FL everyone else on our schedule is in for a long day. Team 120 will have soooo much confidence and swag about themselves that we will beat teams to sleep. I feel more confident about our team as the season gets closer. Yeah I'm drinking that orange Kool-Aid. GBO!

 

[swchandler1988]

Ha true. I guess you could say us stopping them on their 2nd to last possession (Henry TD), or not fumbling to give Dobbs a chance to drive, or us making one of those 3 missed FGs. Anyway, onward and upward...

 

[ntxVOL]

It's the koolaid, everyone is pretty optimistic in August. The fact is, we just won't know how good this team really is until October.

 

[BleedingButch]

at UGA: Let's not forget, yeah last year's game we were down 24-3 before our comeback. But, take away Hurd's fumble inside their 5 yard line (and the TD fumble return by their player) and the game is only 17-10. Point is we were more in that game than it looked like, and the fact that we still came back and won makes our resolve even more impressive.

Let's also not forget that 7 of UGA's points came on a punt return with a blatantly obvious block in the back where a flag was thrown and picked up for god knows why.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

I made up my own ranking system using ESPN's RPI, Bill Connelly's S/P+, and an average of the 2 year and 5 year recruiting rankings from the 247 Composites.

West
Alabama 2.67
LSU 3.83
OM 10.50
AU 15.17
A&M 16.83
AR 23.33
MSU 25.67

East
TN 8.67
GA 10.50
FL 18.33
MO 42.50
SC 47.00
VD 54.50
KY 57.67

Others
VT 33.83
APSU 80.83
OH 103.67

My thinking is being home gives us close to an even shot at Bama. We should have a clear edge over Florida, a decent edge over A&M and a good challenge from UGA. I actually think Butch is a better coach than Miles given comparable talent (and I'm not a Butch fan boy at all) so I see that as our edge in Atlanta. (LSU clips Bama in death valley to win the west).

First test of my ranking system is SC has to edge Vandy in Nashville on 9/1.

 

[swchandler1988]

Let's also not forget that 7 of UGA's points came on a punt return with a blatantly obvious block in the back where a flag was thrown and picked up for god knows why.

Forgot about this one! Thank you. Was going to mention the fact that we lost Shy in that game too, but then again they lost Chubb sooo...what if, what if, what if.

 

[BleedingButch]

Excellent, I believe !

But, what one play are you referring to in that game?

I recall we were about 80 +/- yards away / a daunting task but doable, but the ball was striped.

We need to take off the orange tinted glasses and realize that the Bama game could have very well been a blow out if they had actually caught the 3 potential interceptions dobbs was lobbing over the plate.

I expect he will be more disciplined and accurate this year with better pass protection.

 

[BleedingButch]

I made up my own ranking system using ESPN's RPI, Bill Connelly's S/P+, and an average of the 2 year and 5 year recruiting rankings from the 247 Composites.

But did you consider the moving averages of the DJIA and SP500?

 

[Crazy Ivan]

I agree with most of what you say, OP

Florida: both front 7s should have the advantage over the OLs. So I give the edge to Dobbs over Del Rio because of Josh's ability to run with the ball and I give the edge to our running backs. I actually think Kamara will be a difference in this game because of his ability outside. Plus I think we have the edge on ST.

UGA: Obviously they have questions at QB, and whether Chubb and Michel will either be 100% by the UT game is unknown, but the real advantage that I think UT has in both lines. I don't think UGA's front 7 can handle our running game. If Chubb and or Michel are 100% they will be tough to stop, but I like our front 7 better than UGA's front 7. And again, ST is a UT advantage.

TAMU: Knight has not performed very well in big games through most of his career. I think our DL will give him fits. We just cannot let him get the ball to those WRs. TAMU is flat out bad against the run, so I expect our 3-headed running monster to control the ball.

Bama?: I just don't know. No matter how much talent Bama loses to the NFL every year, they have a 5* waiting in the wings. I do think this will be a low-scoring game where TOs and field position decide the game. I think we have an advantage on ST, so that could help us control field position, but that could be negated with TOs, so for UT to win the offense cannot give Bama any gifts.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

But did you consider the moving averages of the DJIA and SP500?

That's sort of funny given that I spend my days trading the S&P futures now.

The reason I did it that way was the philosophy behind real clear politics polling averages. I followed the RPI last year and it was pretty good. I could project the point spreads relatively well - but obviously nothing is going to be perfect. I'm not overly fond of the S/P+ either but it's actually not too bad. Finally, it seems we often miss when a team comes out of nowhere like Auburn in 2013 or even Florida last year. I think the recruiting ranking deserves more weight and the most recent couple classes moreso than the typical 4 or 5 year average so I use both periods to weight toward recent jimmies and joes. Hey - I have 2 weeks to kill before we get to see our guys in action - I've got to waste time doing something. :hi:

 

[The Artful Dodger]

I made up my own ranking system using ESPN's RPI, Bill Connelly's S/P+, and an average of the 2 year and 5 year recruiting rankings from the 247 Composites.

West
Alabama 2.67
LSU 3.83
OM 10.50
AU 15.17
A&M 16.83
AR 23.33
MSU 25.67

East
TN 8.67
GA 10.50
FL 18.33
MO 42.50
SC 47.00
VD 54.50
KY 57.67

Others
VT 33.83
APSU 80.83
OH 103.67

My thinking is being home gives us close to an even shot at Bama. We should have a clear edge over Florida, a decent edge over A&M and a good challenge from UGA. I actually think Butch is a better coach than Miles given comparable talent (and I'm not a Butch fan boy at all) so I see that as our edge in Atlanta. (LSU clips Bama in death valley to win the west).

First test of my ranking system is SC has to edge Vandy in Nashville on 9/1.

Much better prediction model than some of the "experts" I have seen. Nicely done.

 

[Remy]

Let's also not forget that 7 of UGA's points came on a punt return with a blatantly obvious block in the back where a flag was thrown and picked up for god knows why.

Reports out of Athens are they actually allowed Chubb to be tackled earlier this week. The press saw one tackle and reported that to be the case. Also, they are saying Chubb looks like the Chubb we've seen. Given he has to get through a couple of schools, Mizzou and Ole Miss who will actually have decent defensive fronts, we should know what kind of Chubb to expect on D and respond accordingly. I may try and lay a $s down in Vegas when Im there week of 9/17, that UT outrushes UGA at Athens if I can get decent odds.

 

[Stoked]

I think it's going to be a long day for Chubb with our D-Line, that goes to any RB that we face. Imagine having to run up the middle to be met by KMac..

 

[Remy]

I think it's going to be a long day for Chubb with our D-Line, that goes to any RB that we face. Imagine having to run up the middle to be met by KMac..

Imagine a mean KMac jailbreaking up the middle and you're Chubb so you break it outside to be met the savage Barnett or go the other way to be met a slightly less savage but speedier Phillips.

Crowd at Athens be like "eeewwwwwww"

 

[swchandler1988]

Sounds like in that scrimmage report they're still definitely baby-ing Chubb. Smart just says he "hopes" he'll be back for the opener. I don't know...I mean I want the guy to do well but I don't think he'll be as much of a threat like him rushing for 750 yards in 5 games last season. I completely forgot about the fact that Sony Michel broke his forearm 4th of July weekend. Yesterday Smart said he can't even carry the ball yet. This kind of stuff makes me sooo grateful for Hurd and Kamara.

 

[Remy]

Sounds like in that scrimmage report they're still definitely baby-ing Chubb. Smart just says he "hopes" he'll be back for the opener. I don't know...I mean I want the guy to do well but I don't think he'll be as much of a threat like him rushing for 750 yards in 5 games last season. I completely forgot about the fact that Sony Michel broke his forearm 4th of July weekend. Yesterday Smart said he can't even carry the ball yet. This kind of stuff makes me sooo grateful for Hurd and Kamara.

Like I was told when I drew my very first paycheck, 70% of the job is showing up.