You pay them. The AD has to assess his situation and timing and then pay what is necessary to get the right coach. Had the situation not been so shaky, UT might have done that this time. Instead, they took an approach that hopefully will stabilize the program if Heupel cannot beat the odds. And the other part is that Heupel's potential buyout will not be expensive compared to what they would have had to give a bigger name coach.
PS- Bama doesn't stop being a good example simply because it crushes your notion that you should hire and keep a coach for years regardless of results. Jones was given 2 years longer than he should have gotten which contributed to where we are now. He fully demonstrated that he was not competitive with other SEC coaches on gameday... yet got extensions rather than warnings. Bama's coaches between Bear and Saban had more success than UT's coaches since Fulmer... and they averaged 4 years. UF dumped Zook knowing that in spite of a win % UT would LOVE to have right now... he wasn't taking them in the right direction. LSU dumped Miles because he had become mediocre.
Top programs aren't "patient".
Name the coach who has not won at least 9 games in his first 3 years that went on to have success or win championships. Your list even over the last 40 years is going to be very, very short.
There are no guarantees and history says that you don't necessarily increase your odds by throwing money at a big name. Sumlin was about as solid as "sure" as you could hope for when TAM hired him. Mike Sherman had a successful pro career before flopping at TAM.
Even if you hire a good or better coach, recruiting dries up if they don't prove themselves and grab momentum within the first 3 or 4 years. Without players... It doesn't matter how good of a coach they are. Their mediocre or worse results will just continue to tell recruits to look somewhere else.
There is a lot that goes into turning it around and not all of it is the quality of the coach. Some of it is the situation they inherit. Heupel in that respect is hurt by Pruitt's mess but that is offset by the Covid allowance. But he like all new coaches knows his window is small. He has to produce results that make recruits believe and do not create negative buzz among fans and media.
If Josh gets fired prior to 12/15/23, he gets 20 million. if between 12/15/23 and 12/15/25 he gets 15 million. These numbers assume no extensions or raises.
Wonder what a bigger named coach's buyout might have been?? 40 million? very possible.
If Josh gets fired, the next not big name coaches buyout will be a lot more than Josh's.