Oddshark: A&M opens as -6.5 favs

#51
#51
SmartVolFan said:
Vegas lines are based primarily on the perception of how gamblers will bet.

Vegas wants the money gambled to be as even as possible. They live on the 10% 'juice' - not on the hopes that one team beats the line.

Show me one Vegas bookmaker that tries to favor one team over another by encouraging action in one direction, and I'll show you a soon-to-be broke bookmaker...
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I'm in the hospital with my wife, daughter, and new baby girl or I would link to you the that suggests you severely underestimate vegas.

There is compelling evidence that Vegas inflates the score of the favorite by about a point, knowing that most bettors will simply bet the favorite. This single point increases profits by something like 50%.

If you remind me, I'll cite the source, study, data and conclusion when we get home.
 
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#52
#52
OrngeChkrboardVFL said:
If I'm A&M, I'd throw deep all game long. Our CB's have to step up or we are in big trouble. They've gotten exposed at will basically everytime they've been tested. I do think we can beat A&M but I'm very nervous about the deep ball and Knight can get it there.
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a&m won't have time to throw it deep all day long with our pass rush.
 
#53
#53
I think a lot depends on whether we start slow or continue from the end of last week's game. If we do start fast, I believe the game could go either way with one score deciding the winner.
 
#55
#55
Ain't nobody gonna give us a shot in this game ya'll, it's up to us to hold up our guys. It's gonna be a tough couple of games for them....DO NOT GIVE UP ON ME NOW! We got a job to do.
 
#58
#58
Let me make it easy on everyone.
Last week Tennessee won on a Hail Mary Pass.
(was favored by 4 only won by 3) People put their money on Tennessee because of their win over Florida and Georgia's bad and horrible game against Ole Miss.

Vegas cleared big because 74% of bettors put their money on Tennessee to cover.

Texas AM won over south carolina (@ SC) by 11. So pretty much they won by 18 if you take away the touchdown giving to the underdog for being at home.

Vegas knows people are going to put their money on AM because of the small line being at 6.5. Just because AM won by 11 at opposing SEC school and Tennessee barely won by 3 over a team that got blown out by Ole Miss.

Go back and check my stats. I have called the lines and the winners the last few weeks. I was off on this opening line but that is because they want people to put their money on AM with that line. By Thursday evening the public will be betting on AM with around 70%.

Take Tennessee
 
#60
#60
Home field advantage - higher ranked team - one would expect them to be favored.

Did you all really expect Tennessee to be favored?
 
#64
#64
volfan102455 said:
Home field advantage - higher ranked team - one would expect them to be favored.

Did you all really expect Tennessee to be favored?
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I'm not sure anyone has said UT should be favored. This is simply a thread to discuss the line
 
#65
#65
IPleadInsanity said:
Hard to make an educated guess based on Vols performances thus far. I am thankful we are not favored!
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We're playing with house money this week IMO. I'm kinda glad we're not favored as well. Perhaps it increases our team's focus and we play well for 4 quarters.
 
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