Odds of Making Final Four Cut in Half

#53

Stoerner Fumbles

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#53
We’re just going to have to disagree and go our separate ways on this one. You’re talking about something completely different than I’m talking about. I never once mentioned betting odds in my original post, simply the history and probability of each seed advancing in the modern NCAAT.
This isn’t a disagreement. Your original thread title and post are incorrect. It’s a factual matter, not one of opinion.[/QUOTE]
 
#54

VolPack22

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#54
Ok try this. Let’s say TN got a two seed and knocked Villanova down to a three seed. Look at the bracket and see if you think TN would have a better odds if you swap them.
Statistics indicate that yes we would have a better opportunity. 30 two seeds have made the Final Four vs 17 three seeds. There is a higher probability of a 6-11 seed winning in the 2nd round than a 7-10. The path to the sweet 16 is generally easier for a 2 seed. Any way you look at it, the path is generally a little bit easier for the 2 seed.
 
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#55
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#55
This data does not say “we” have these odds. One and two seeds represent the best eight teams. If you believe we’re actually the fourth or fifth best team, then putting the number three (seed) next two our name doesn’t change our odds of winning. The path of 2’s and 3’s look very similar generally, but matchups are everything. I prefer this 3 over 2 in the West.
I don’t. Arizona is better than Gonzaga. Villanova is better than Texas Tech
 
#56

Stoerner Fumbles

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#56
Statistics indicate that yes we would have a better opportunity. 30 two seeds have made the Final Four vs 17 three seeds. There is a higher probability of a 6-11 seed winning in the 2nd round than a 7-10. The path to the sweet 16 is generally easier for a 2 seed. Any way you look at it, the path is generally a little bit easier for the 2 seed.
Statistics do not indicate that. You read an article you didn’t understand. Let it go.
 
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#62

Stoerner Fumbles

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#62
Math doesn’t lie. Keep making stuff up all you want. Statistics show the 2 seed has a little easier path.
Math isn’t the problem. Your inability to understand what you’re reading is the problem. Here’s an illustration of the point in exaggerated terms. Imagine Arizona is seeded 3. Now imagine SMU is seeded three. Are there odds of advancing the same? No. They are not. Similarly, Tennessee win probability is distinct from either of the examples. Now add the variability of the matchups, and you see that it’s much more complex than average of seed record. Your data sample contains averages from 3 seeds. That does nothing to help determine the odds of this particular 3 seed.
 
#66

Stoerner Fumbles

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#66
Gonzaga’s Q1 wins, which is what their overall 1 seed is based on, are ... not great
The games they lost early are troublesome too. I think those picking them to win it all are doing so based on the quality of their parts. They’re the top ranked offense in the country and the #4 defense. That’s the kind of mix that wins. You’re right that St. Mary’s and SF are not tests equal to others. We’ll see.
 
#67

JoAllan

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#67
Gonzaga’s Q1 wins, which is what their overall 1 seed is based on, are ... not great
Neutral site Texas win by 12
Neutral site UCLA win by 20
Neutral site Texas Tech win by 14

Are pretty darn good…….it’s because they weren’t just home wins.

My main problem with Gonzaga is the 13 Q4 games….way more than anyone else near the top. I know they can’t help that, they also scheduled some good non conference games and they don’t really play Q3 games……..but that’s still a lot of Q4 games.
 
#68

VolPack22

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#68
Math isn’t the problem. Your inability to understand what you’re reading is the problem. Here’s an illustration of the point in exaggerated terms. Imagine Arizona is seeded 3. Now imagine SMU is seeded three. Are there odds of advancing the same? No. They are not. Similarly, Tennessee win probability is distinct from either of the examples. Now add the variability of the matchups, and you see that it’s much more complex than average of seed record. Your data sample contains averages from 3 seeds. That does nothing to help determine the odds of this particular 3 seed.
If Arizona were a 3 it would still be the same probability as us, along with any other 3 seed. The fact still remains that only 17/144 three seeds in the past 36 tournaments have ever made the Final Four. That’s what history says, that’s what the numbers say. You aren’t convincing me, I’m not convincing you. Like I said, just disagree and move along.
 
#69

Stoerner Fumbles

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#69
If Arizona were a 3 it would still be the same probability as us, along with any other 3 seed. The fact still remains that only 17/144 three seeds in the past 36 tournaments have ever made the Final Four. That’s what history says, that’s what the numbers say. You aren’t convincing me, I’m not convincing you. Like I said, just disagree and move along.
You may want to ask a grownup for help.
 
#70

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#70
🤔 Innerstin'. But, think @ this way. If our resume' SHOULD have truly made us a #2 seed anyway, but the K love affair and UK $$$ grab pushed us down, then really we are a #2 playing with a chip on our shoulder. The odds then go to somewhere between 99 & 101% for us to win it all IMO. Perfect storm!
 
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#72

Vols410

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#72
After running through my rankings/simulations, flipping Tennessee/Villanova would change the following probabilities of a F4.

Tennessee: 20.3% -> 20.9%
Villanova: 18.2% -> 17.9%

Changes a bit, but given this year's setup it's not a drastic difference.
 

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