Long assessment of the game but here goes. They average 67 shots per game we average 69. The big difference is their 53 percent shooting to our 42 percent. They have a 75 percent free throw percentage but haven't been getting to the line much 13 a game. We get their 18 times but miss six so were leaving three points decent average at least there every game we play. They average making 10 threes a game to our 10 but they shoot a lot less threes,
They are averaging 33 rebounds to our 42.
Not a lot of ways to win this game unless you get them off that 53 percent to something like 45 percent on the same shot total they average. That would be 60 points and if they only make 10 threes like they have been doing that comes to 70. With the 13 free throw makes they get to 83 points. If they get their average 53 percent that jumps up to 93.
So in order to win we need to go about plus ten on shots if were shooting 42 percent. That would be 77 shots eight above our average and would get us 32 field goals for 64 points. 10 need to be threes to get to 74 points. Then if we could hit 12 free throws which is our average 86 points. Doing all that while they shoot just 45 percent and only average their season shot total.
That would be a three point win, but you see there are a lot of ifs involved. Getting to plus 10 shots will be very difficult. Holding them to 45 percent extremely difficult, Just matching their threes will be difficult. Even though were getting to the line more I doubt we do in this game on the road. Turnovers and rebounds definitely have to win both to make a 10 shot deficit.
Looks to me scoring from 86 to 90 would have to be the total to have a chance. unless they play horribly below their averages. Were going to need to shoot the ball in the high forties not that mid thirty crap we do so often. I always say if we can shoot it at 45 percent overall get our 69 shot average and make 11 threes and get our 18 free throws even if we make only 12 were going to be in any game we play. We haven't reached those numbers that often this season. That is about 85 points when we do and hopefully where Kim will get the team eventually if not this season in the future.
The facts are we are a fairly good rebounding team and a least lately have not been turning it over a lot. Shooting the basketball is this teams weakness at least up to this point in the season.
I really don't expect us to collapse in this game like Louisville were much more mentally tougher now than we were then. Were as athletic as any team in the country. We just still have extreme trouble shooting a basketball.