VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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- Jan 17, 2015
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No such thing as a moral victory.
However, there is such a thing as a close game.
And close games might just be the "hidden stats" in a comparison of Tennessee and Northwestern's seasons.
Consider this:
Took all of the Vols' and Wildcats' opponents this year and slapped them onto a chart, 1 to 100+, using ESPN FPI end-of-season standings. Wins have a green background, and losses have a red background.
First thing that pops out: the Vols played a tougher top-end than NU, two teams in the Top 5 (in fact, they are the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, per the FPI). Below that, the results appear very similar: there's a zone, from about the 10-range down to about the 30-range, where both Vols and Cats have a mix of wins and losses with no clear dividing line between them. Then from 40 on down, both teams won every game they played.
From this chart, one might conclude that the two teams are very closely matched, and it should be a tight game.
But that doesn't take into account close games. Maybe they can tell us more:
This chart is identical to the one before, except that any game with a final score within a TD of even now gets a yellow background.
You'll notice Tennessee's red-backgrounds all disappeared. All four losses were close games. NU's, on the other hand, did not. Michigan beat the Cats 38-0, and Iowa whupped them 40-10.
So first new note: the ability to lose big if things turn south is absolutely in the NU team's DNA; it is entirely missing from Team 119, even against the best competition in the land.
Second note is this: teams all the way down at the bottom of the well had the ability to play NU close. Purdue (FPI #87, final score 21-14) and even Ball State (FPI #103, final score 24-19) were able to hang close to the Cats. Aside from #62 South Carolina, the Vols had no trouble pulling well away from outclassed opponents.
So What? What does this say?
Can be interpreted perhaps in a variety of ways, but what I think I'm taking from it is this: the game might be close...it might come right down to the wire. But if it doesn't, if it's a blowout, it's only going to be a blowout in favor of the Vols. From this chart, it looks like NU largely doesn't know how to win big, and Team 119 clearly does not lose big.
This doesn't mean NU sucks and Vols win, write it down, put it in the vault, we're done here. Nope, doesn't mean that at all. It only means that the Vols have the ability to beat anyone, while the Cats have the ability to be beaten by anyone.
It's good to be on our side of that equation.
However, there is such a thing as a close game.
And close games might just be the "hidden stats" in a comparison of Tennessee and Northwestern's seasons.
Consider this:
Took all of the Vols' and Wildcats' opponents this year and slapped them onto a chart, 1 to 100+, using ESPN FPI end-of-season standings. Wins have a green background, and losses have a red background.
First thing that pops out: the Vols played a tougher top-end than NU, two teams in the Top 5 (in fact, they are the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, per the FPI). Below that, the results appear very similar: there's a zone, from about the 10-range down to about the 30-range, where both Vols and Cats have a mix of wins and losses with no clear dividing line between them. Then from 40 on down, both teams won every game they played.
From this chart, one might conclude that the two teams are very closely matched, and it should be a tight game.
But that doesn't take into account close games. Maybe they can tell us more:
This chart is identical to the one before, except that any game with a final score within a TD of even now gets a yellow background.
You'll notice Tennessee's red-backgrounds all disappeared. All four losses were close games. NU's, on the other hand, did not. Michigan beat the Cats 38-0, and Iowa whupped them 40-10.
So first new note: the ability to lose big if things turn south is absolutely in the NU team's DNA; it is entirely missing from Team 119, even against the best competition in the land.
Second note is this: teams all the way down at the bottom of the well had the ability to play NU close. Purdue (FPI #87, final score 21-14) and even Ball State (FPI #103, final score 24-19) were able to hang close to the Cats. Aside from #62 South Carolina, the Vols had no trouble pulling well away from outclassed opponents.
So What? What does this say?
Can be interpreted perhaps in a variety of ways, but what I think I'm taking from it is this: the game might be close...it might come right down to the wire. But if it doesn't, if it's a blowout, it's only going to be a blowout in favor of the Vols. From this chart, it looks like NU largely doesn't know how to win big, and Team 119 clearly does not lose big.
This doesn't mean NU sucks and Vols win, write it down, put it in the vault, we're done here. Nope, doesn't mean that at all. It only means that the Vols have the ability to beat anyone, while the Cats have the ability to be beaten by anyone.
It's good to be on our side of that equation.
