NIL Prediction

#26
#26
Yes I think you’re right. Have the 2 deep stacked with 4 + stars. Team that spends the most is gonna be the front runner. From here forward it’s all about money. Player development and committing to a school for 4 years is dead. It’s gonna be a lot of players switching teams every year unless congress or ncaa intervene and make some changes. It’s sad and I hate what college football has become in just a couple of years but this is where we’re at.
 
#27
#27
What you get from JUCO and tier two schools are players who are used to a faster, more fearsome, way of playing. It is said that the biggest obstacle for rookies to overcome in the NFL is the sheer speed of play and the players. When a kid goes to high level NCAA, there will be a couple of stars and everyone else. When you get to the big dogs' club, everyone is a star and everyone else is cut.
 
#28
#28
UTFranklinVol said:
I've said it 100 times over. why pay a kid out of high school all that money based purely on "hype" when you can pay a guy in the portal who is a proven known quantity AND someone else has put in all the time and effort to develop their strength and physical attributes to the highest potential.

the portal is a no brainer to focus all your dollars on.


it may sound rediculous to make this example but it illustrates the point: if you're an NFL team would you rather draft the #1 QB or would you rather pay to get Patrick Mahomes if he was a free agent?

I hope that question is easy for you to answer because the right answer is obvious.
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Money. Because the FR recruit is cheaper than the proven QB who leverages that experience for more NIL money.

If you put the bag down for the experienced QB, you have less NIL to get other positions.

This is true in the NFL, with caps being similar to NIL limitations, that signing Mahomes is expensive vs signing (rookies don't count in this because the NFL caps rookie contracts) a lesser known QB on their second contract. If you sign Mahomes, you have less space on your cap for other positions.
 
#29
#29
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Money. Because the FR recruit is cheaper than the proven QB who leverages that experience for more NIL money.

If you put the bag down for the experienced QB, you have less NIL to get other positions.

This is true in the NFL, with caps being similar to NIL limitations, that signing Mahomes is expensive vs signing (rookies don't count in this because the NFL caps rookie contracts) a lesser known QB on their second contract. If you sign Mahomes, you have less space on your cap for other positions.
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its not about total dollars spent it's about ROI you get on your money.

spending more on a proven quantity trumps taking a risk on a kid who never played a snap of college football.

if you spend 1 million dollars on 10 high school kids or 10 million on one proven portal player, the 10 million was better spent on the portal player.
 
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#30
#30
UTFranklinVol said:
its not about total dollars spent it's about ROI you get on your money.

spending more on a proven quantity trumps taking a risk on a kid who never played a snap of college football.

if you spend 1 million dollars on 10 high school kids or 10 million on one proven portal player, the 10 million was better spent on the portal player.
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For sure, but the issue is NIL money isn't unlimited and you need guys every year at lots of positions.

If you drop 5M on a great portal QB and 3M on a great portal WR, but don't have enough money to get an OLine to give that connection a chance, it's not successful at all.

Proven talent commands more money than unproven talent and should. I wish we could just go out there and buy nothing but top shelf talent every year but that's not reality even if we totally ignore HS recruiting.
 
#33
#33
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
For sure, but the issue is NIL money isn't unlimited and you need guys every year at lots of positions.

If you drop 5M on a great portal QB and 3M on a great portal WR, but don't have enough money to get an OLine to give that connection a chance, it's not successful at all.

Proven talent commands more money than unproven talent and should. I wish we could just go out there and buy nothing but top shelf talent every year but that's not reality even if we totally ignore HS recruiting.
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yeah it costs lots of money! why the heck do you think the B10 is making that venture capital deal worth billions of dollars? they are going to distribute that money to all the schools to fuel NIL and dominate the SEC.
 
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#34
#34
I think you will see limits on number of players, a hard salary cap, and back to limiting transfers so you don't have a guy playing for 5 different teams. I think if you transfer for more money, you are there for 2 years if you have eligibility or some sort of multi year contract. I realize folks woth normal jobs can go from job to job at will, but this is not even close to the same thing. I also think you will see trades happen. These kids are not there for the education, we have known that for decades, so it isn't going to hinder that one bit.
The folks funding the NIL are absolutely gonna want to see a return on that investment. Teams are going to be under even more pressure to win it all. Coaches will ultimately pay the price with their job.
 
#35
#35
Vol8188 said:
Right. That’s what I’m saying. You’ll still have 105, unlike what the OP was saying. What you won’t have though is 105 paid NIL players
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I think what the OP was suggesting is that it's not really economically wise to operate with 105 when you don't need that many. just pay the right players and you can stop paying for "dead weight". NIL money is just one cost. you still have to feed all those guys, house them, tote them on a bus or a plane everywhere you go, hotel them. buy them jerseys and equipment etc. After all, NFL teams have an active roster half that size and they are just fine.
 
#36
#36
UTFranklinVol said:
I think what the OP was suggesting is that it's not really economically wise to operate with 105 when you don't need that many. just pay the right players and you can stop paying for "dead weight". NIL money is just one cost. you still have to feed all those guys, house them, tote them on a bus or a plane everywhere you go, hotel them. buy them jerseys and equipment etc. After all, NFL teams have an active roster half that size and they are just fine.
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No one travels with 85 now, why would anyone travel with 105?
 
#37
#37
I would like to think a lot of these bogus high school rating services would disappear. Most of them have no idea how how these kids will perform and 5 star ratings inflating the NIL and shared revenue value will not be tolerated.
 
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#38
#38
Nil, portal seems the give and take of College sports, dont really see Tennessee getting the goodies from portal they want,or keeping some they have
Just my opinion ,dont look promising.
 
#40
#40
99gator said:
That's still happening. It's just with the transfer QB, not the high school 5*

And the schools are moving that way because there is more product certainty with the transfer QB compared to the 5* out of high school.
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This! If other states are anything like Tennessee their high school football classification system is participation trophy level crazy. You really don't know how good players are because the competition is so diluted.
 
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