NCAA FB Line discussion..(gambler thread)

#1

Co. Aytch

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#1
LETS MAKE MONEY!!!...........This is the first edition of a planned reoccuring thread.

Maybe someone here is already doing this but I have not seen it. This one is for all the gamblers. If you are not a gambler and have a good solid pick please let us know. I am always suprised at how much knowledge I can find when I ask people on this board...I am in Vegas and playing the book all the time. Lets see what you got. I was thinkin for the NCAA FB we would only pick 5 SURE FIRE solid picks. So, I will start off mine. This week I am going by the odds from the ORLEANS casino in Vegas. Here is what I got. May change but right now the ones I like...And by the way I dont really like betting on the VOLS because I love them so much. So I try not to have money on them unless it is just outrageous lines. So after the long preamble here are my picks for tomm...(so far!)

Underdog pick..I am takin Syracuse over South Florida at 7 point dog. It is in Syracuse.

They have a 3000 dollar cap on this one..Texas Tech (-36) fav at home over New Mexico. This one could get way outta control QUICKLY.

Washington Huskies at Notre Dame. Does the Irish really have it in them to beat the Huskies by 13?? I dont think so. I am taking Washington.

LSU at Georgia..I hesitated earlier in the week on this one. Have waffled a bit on how I am thinking. Tough pick but I think Miles will break thru finally against GA...I am takin LSU with 2.5 points...

Last one I got right now....OVER and Under. My favorite kinda bet....Oklahoma and Miami FLA..No Bradford i guess but who knows really. OVER UNDER is at 49.. I think they blow by that in the third quarter early...So i am taking the over.

So tell me where I am wrong and let me know who you got as locks. I love betting and can use all the help I can get. GO VOLS. TOMM I am doing the LMM NFL thread tomm nite.
Thanks
 
#6

oUTKickedCoverage

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#6
Wisconsin(-2) @ Minnesota - Minny has played close games against some really average teams, with the exception of a 14 point loss to Cal and an FCS blowout. Wisconsin hasn't been a world beater either, but their offense is productive. They should be able to take advantage of Minnesota's bottom 15 defense.

Alabama(-16) @ Kentucky
- Alabama is the best team in the country right now, Kentucky is in the bottom 1/3 of the SEC in EVERY major category. Kentucky will have problems holding Alabama under 300 yards rushing. There is a risk of a backdoor cover, but it should be minimal.

Under51 OU @ Miami(Fl.) - I smell a 19-13 type of game here... too many injuries and inconsistency. Miami flat out can't run the ball(#99) vs. OU's TOP RANKED rushing defense will result in a lot of 4 and outs for Miami... and with Bradford dinged up, expect Oklahoma to grind it out and eat clock up(50+ rushes). I'm not sure how they did it, but the raw stats say Miami is a bad team... but I think there is enough perception of them as dangerous to keep OU conservative.

Under48 Ohio @ BGSU - Bowling Green can pass, Ohio can defend it... That's about the only positive either team has.

Iowa State(-2.5) vs. Kansas State - KSU is flat out awful, Iowa State looks like they could sneak into a bowl this season. Alexander Robinson is averaging well over 5YPC, and UCLA ran all over KSU.

Washington State(+35) @ Oregon - Seriously? 35 points? Oregon is overvalued in a HUGE way after the California game where everything went right for them and everything went wrong for Cal. Washington State hasn't made the strides UW has, but its certainly improved enough to hold the 88th ranked offense close enough to prevent a 35+ point loss. Very likely backdoor cover here.

Over66.5 Arkansas@Texas A&M - This reminds me of a Hal Mumme intrasquad scrimmage at Kentucky. I hate taking an over like this, but nothing indicates to me that either team can slow down the other. I would also consider taking Texas A&M as I think their offense is a bit better.

Insane throwing money away bet

Arkansas State SU(-900) @ Iowa - Quality rushing team in ASU, Iowa coming off a huge win... that has everyone forgetting about the Northern Iowa near loss. Iowa's QB loves to throw into coverage resulting in a lot of blowups and a 1/1 INT/TD ratio.

Not the most likely upset, but food for thought.

Don't like the LSU bet, with UGA being at home and neither team looking very impressive.
50/50 game to me.
 
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#9

JFreak

Buck Fama
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#9
Bama -16 @ KY
Tennessee -3 AU
Miami +7.5 Okla
Ohio +3 @ Bowl. Green

NFL Games:
Dallas -3 @ Denver
San Diego +6.5 @ Pitt
Take the under @43 in SDG vs Pitt

All lines taken from The Greek. Now if i could just figure out how to deposit on these sites lol.
 
#10

Co. Aytch

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#10
Bama -16 @ KY
Tennessee -3 AU
Miami +7.5 Okla
Ohio +3 @ Bowl. Green

NFL Games:
Dallas -3 @ Denver
San Diego +6.5 @ Pitt
Take the under @43 in SDG vs Pitt

All lines taken from The Greek. Now if i could just figure out how to deposit on these sites lol.
The Greek is THE MAN
 
#12

oUTKickedCoverage

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#12
Wisconsin(-2) @ Minnesota - Minny has played close games against some really average teams, with the exception of a 14 point loss to Cal and an FCS blowout. Wisconsin hasn't been a world beater either, but their offense is productive. They should be able to take advantage of Minnesota's bottom 15 defense.
HIT


Alabama(-16) @ Kentucky
- Alabama is the best team in the country right now, Kentucky is in the bottom 1/3 of the SEC in EVERY major category. Kentucky will have problems holding Alabama under 300 yards rushing. There is a risk of a backdoor cover, but it should be minimal.
HIT

Under51 OU Miami(Fl.) - I smell a 19-13 type of game here... too many injuries and inconsistency. Miami flat out can't run the ball(#99) vs. OU's TOP RANKED rushing defense will result in a lot of 4 and outs for Miami... and with Bradford dinged up, expect Oklahoma to grind it out and eat clock up(50+ rushes). I'm not sure how they did it, but the raw stats say Miami is a bad team... but I think there is enough perception of them as dangerous to keep OU conservative.
HIT

Under48 Ohio @ BGSU - Bowling Green can pass, Ohio can defend it... That's about the only positive either team has.
Big Miss

Iowa State(-2.5) vs. Kansas State - KSU is flat out awful, Iowa State looks like they could sneak into a bowl this season. Alexander Robinson is averaging well over 5YPC, and UCLA ran all over KSU.
MISS


Washington State(+35) @ Oregon - Seriously? 35 points? Oregon is overvalued in a HUGE way after the California game where everything went right for them and everything went wrong for Cal. Washington State hasn't made the strides UW has, but its certainly improved enough to hold the 88th ranked offense close enough to prevent a 35+ point loss. Very likely backdoor cover here.
MISS
Over66.5 Arkansas@Texas A&M - This reminds me of a Hal Mumme intrasquad scrimmage at Kentucky. I hate taking an over like this, but nothing indicates to me that either team can slow down the other. I would also consider taking Texas A&M as I think their offense is a bit better.
Shoulda bought the hook


Insane throwing money away bet

Arkansas State SU(-900) @ Iowa - Quality rushing team in ASU, Iowa coming off a huge win... that has everyone forgetting about the Northern Iowa near loss. Iowa's QB loves to throw into coverage resulting in a lot of blowups and a 1/1 INT/TD ratio.

Not the most likely upset, but food for thought.
ALMOST
Don't like the LSU bet, with UGA being at home and neither team looking very impressive.
50/50 game to me.
3-4
 
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#15

JTrainDavis

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#15
Wisconsin(-2) @ Minnesota - Minny has played close games against some really average teams, with the exception of a 14 point loss to Cal and an FCS blowout. Wisconsin hasn't been a world beater either, but their offense is productive. They should be able to take advantage of Minnesota's bottom 15 defense.
.
I took this one on the ML, pretty nerve wracking but satisfying. Fun game to watch, lots of ebb and flow.

I have NCSU this afternoon +3.5 at Wake.
 
#19

JFreak

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#19
Bama -16 @ KY
Tennessee -3 AU
Miami +7.5 Okla
Ohio +3 @ Bowl. Green

NFL Games:
Dallas -3 @ Denver
San Diego +6.5 @ Pitt
Take the under @43 in SDG vs Pitt

All lines taken from The Greek. Now if i could just figure out how to deposit on these sites lol.
3-1 so far just lost betting on UT as usual. Feel really good about my NFL picks tomm too.
 
#21

rockytophigh

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#21
I took Houston -8.5 today. Anyone see anything else in the later games?

Sorry I'm late.....yesterday took East Carolina, Stanford, USF, Penn State, North Carolina (yuck), Houston (yuck) and Central Michigan (yuck)
 
#22
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#22
Weekly, one of my bosses friends picks the 10 games we are going to pick for the weekly pool. Usually about 25 cards play - and some guys play 2 or 3 cards.

I only play one card weekly and there's only a handful of times I finish out of the top 5. I've still only won once - and that was a tie - even tied the tiebreaker score. Anyway, here's the week 6 games we have and my little take on them. Glad to hear others takes as well - I don't turn the card in until Friday so I have time to change my mind.

1. Vandy -10.5 @ Army - Right off the bat a game I don't much care for. Army isn't all that great this year but Vandy isn't either. However, Vandy does play in the SEC and put up a big amount of points against MSU last week. I think their QB can run around enough and do just enough where they cover this week. I am on Vandy right now in this spot.

2. Purdue +3.5 @ Minnesota - I'm on Minnesota here. They just barely lost to a decent Wisconsin team at home last week while Purdue lost to Northwestern at home. These are two middle of the road Big Ten teams but a couple of stats that put me on Minnesota: Favorite is 8-1-1 in last 10 in the series and Minnesota are 12-3 ATS in last 15 against teams with losing records.

3. Boston College +13.5 @ Virginia Tech - I just think that's too many points to be giving a team that isn't that bad. After getting waxed by Clemson BC has bounced back with wins over FSU and Wake. Tech is looking stout right now but didn't exactly impress VS Duke last week. I wish the spread was 14 so it could push just in case but I see this being a game with a score of something like 27-17 or 31-20 or something like that.

4. Auburn -2.5 @ Arkansas - Good lord this is a head scratcher for me. Auburn is indeed undefeated and looking decent. Arkansas is up and down and just came off a total buttkicking of Texas A&M. Malzon leaves Arky on bad terms and now gets to coach against them. I feel that, along with Arkansas being so up and down, makes me lean Auburn right now.

5. Georgia +1 @ Tennessee - Well, they have to put the UT game in here every week. I try not to let my TN bias ever sway my decisions but I know that its possible that even try as I might I may still let emotions get in the way as it pertains to the Vols. I can see why the spread is what it is - Georgia isn't exactly putting up stellar numbers this year either. Still, with UT's shaky QB and WR play right now I am reluctantly leaning Dawgs here. Puke

6. Kentucky +10.5 @ South Carolina - Does SC ever cover against SEC teams? It doesn't seem that way. However, I'll bite again on them here and say they can at least beat KY by 11 at home. Spurrier owns the Wildcats. This looks on paper to me a 21-7 or 21-10 game.

7. Alabama -6.5 @ Ole Miss - Here I am going against the grain and picking Ole Miss. Don't know why except for the fact that Nutt seems to pull a big game out of his butt at least once a year. Bama is playing really good right now but I think Ole Miss at home will give them a ride here. The last 4 meetings between the two have all been decided by 4 points or less. That was the main kicker that puts me on Ole Miss here .

8. Oregon -6.5 @ UCLA - Just think Oregon is hitting their stride and UCLA is still not quite there yet this year. Oregon by 10-14.

9. Georgia Tech +2.5 @ FSU - Taking Tech here mainly because of all of the turmoil at FSU. Plus, FSU isn't exactly lighting things up at home and can't stop the run - something Tech does really well. Its hard to believe FSU may lose 3 in a row and call me a sucker but I'll take Tech here.

10. Florida -8 @ LSU - There was some crazy stat I heard that LSU hasn't lost a night home game in 4-5 years or something like that. All good things must come to an end but I still think that's too many points for an SEC team to cover on the road - even if it is Florida. My dad says Florida will win 42-24 - I say Florida wins but its more like 35-31.
 
#24

Vols N Shocks

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#24
Awesome idea for a thread.

For the year I'm 23-21-1 ATS. A nice site for keeping track of how you pick is called Sports Betting Odds, Statistics and Picks ? Covers.com

I took MTSU at +7 last night, didn't work too well for me.

All my lines are from Bodog.

Looking towards Thursday's game:

-3 Nebraska
vs +3 Missouri
I'll take Nebraska at -3. I think Nebraska wins the north this year, and I think Mizzou is soft.

Saturday Games

-10 WVU vs +10 Syracuse
I'm taking Syracuse. Syracuse is rolling. They have been playing good football this year, and losing close to all their opponents. WVU has been playing pretty poorly IMO. Too many mistakes against Colorado, and still couldn't just put them away. Should have beaten them by 35. I think Cuse keps it close.

-4 Mich State vs +4 Illinois
I think Mich State beats Illinois big this game. Illinois is starting a new QB, benching 38 game starter Juice Williams. Zook sees the writing on the wall, and a QB change midseason is desperation for him. Mich State played Michigan well last week, I see them with a W.

-6.5 Bama
vs +6.5 Ole Miss
Why Ole Miss still gets good spreads is beyond me. They aren't as good as everyone thinks. I think Bama wins in a blow out.

-3.5 Bowling Green vs +3.5 Kent
Clawfense beats Kent, they've played well all year, losing by just a few to Ohio last week. They need a rebound game, and this is it. BG by atleast a TD.

Even Stanford vs Even Oregon State
Stanford is looking great this year, and OSU isn't. How this is a pick em game is beyond me. I pick Stanford in this one.

+14.5 Duke vs -14.5 NC State
Duke has been hanging with the teams that they have lost to this year, last year they lost to NCSt by 10. I think Duke loses, but no more than 2 TD's. I think because of the .5 duke is a good bet.

-4 Ohio vs +4 Akron
Solich has a good team this year, I think they beat Akron by a pair of TD's. The -4 is a good number, i think they win by atleast 1 TD.

+16 K State vs -16 T Tech
K State is horrible this year. A big rebuilding year for them. I think Tech rolls them.

+3 GTech vs -3 FSU
With all the news swirling around about Bowden, I think they win one for their coach. GTech's qb play has been atrocious this year, and FSU held their own with Miami. I think they pick it up, and finish their season strong. Win by a TD.

+8 Michigan
vs -8 Iowa
Allowing Michigan to only lose by a TD and still win, is a great play imo. This might even be a game I pick Mich to win SU. Iowa hasn't really proven themself this year, except with PSU, and for some reason they just have PSU's number every year. I think Iowa is over rated, and bettors just can't understand Rich Rod has a good thing going up there yet.

-3 ASU vs +3 Washington
Coach Sark has Washington trucking just after half a season. I think they need a win after that heart breaker at ND. I pick Washingtion to win SU.

------------------------------------------------
Record for the week: 1-0-0
 
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#25

Co. Aytch

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#25
I too was very suprised that Troy was so dominate over MTSU. I didnt bet the game cause I want sure either way..

Still working on my picks for this weekend. DownNDirty and VolInShocks I like the picks. You all are disagreeing on the Alabama Ole Miss game. Think alot of people are picking both sides..
 

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