They get it right because they can (and do) adjust their rankings at any time. They just follow the offers and who signs where. The final rankings look nothing like the initial ones, so using these things as a barometer for how schools are recruiting or, more importantly, who they SHOULD recruit, is a fool’s errand.
For coaches, on the other hand, they actually have to evaluate and get in early. That’s the difference and it’s huge. As you say, Heupel can evaluate and evaluate early. So I’m more deferential to him than to the nerds (incidentally, they should be too…and will be if they’re not already).
I’d love to see a study to see how “right” they are in their ranking as they stand a year before signing day, as opposed to their final rankings. That would be more telling of their abilities.