Napier’s Decision To Go For 2

#1
DOCTORLOOMIS

DOCTORLOOMIS

Smith’s Grove - Warren County Sanitarium
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#1
I’ve checked multiple models and his late decision to go for two was mathematically correct. It increased his probability of winning. You can argue until blue in the face but it was the correct call strategy wise. It’s like doubling 10 vs the 6 in blackjack. It’s absolutely correct but you may lose that hand doing it. Lastly please don’t give me any **** over this post. I’m simply telling you the math behind the decision. I’m glad he f-ing lost.
 
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#2
#2
DOCTORLOOMIS said:
I’ve checked multiple models and his late decision to go for two was mathematically correct. It increased his probability of winning. You can argue until blue in the face but it was the correct call strategy wise. It’s like doubling 10 vs the 6 in blackjack. It’s absolutely correct but you may lose that hand doing it. Lastly please don’t give me any **** over this post. I’m simply telling you the math behind the decision. I’m glad he f-ing lost.
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It the same math as if you are down 14 late and score. 2 shots at going for 2 and if you hit the first one just kick the extra point on the second. This just has a field goal added
 
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#4
#4
Sometimes you don’t need a book or model. I bet most coaches don’t do what he did……maybe Kiffin maybe some others…..but most certainly don’t.

I like it because it shows he “knew” his team needed anything and everything just for a chance to beat Tennessee.

Not too long ago Tennessee needed smoke and mirrors to try and win games.

Now……shoes on the other foot.

Tennessee simply plays straight up……..other teams need the bag O tricks and magic to try and win games.

I LOVE IT!!
 
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#5
#5
DOCTORLOOMIS said:
I’ve checked multiple models and his late decision to go for two was mathematically correct. It increased his probability of winning. You can argue until blue in the face but it was the correct call strategy wise. It’s like doubling 10 vs the 6 in blackjack. It’s absolutely correct but you may lose that hand doing it. Lastly please don’t give me any **** over this post. I’m simply telling you the math behind the decision. I’m glad he f-ing lost.
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it still makes more sense to go for it on the second TD

Additionally its a strategic decision to play for the win and not the tie

Does the math factor in OT? I doubt it...seems the math would only work for "W in regulation", and thus the odds of actually winning less than settling for a tie

So glad he did it :p
 
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#8
#8
One other thing to consider….he went for it on 4th down all day long. The math said to do it and he did. 99% of coaches punt and they get steam rolled by us. You couldve held a gun to Fulmer’s head and he still would’ve punted. If he punts a couple of those times we blow them the F out. Analytics kept them in the game.
 
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#9
#9
Other_Guy said:
So he IS their Lyle Jones
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iu
 
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#12
#12
BanditVol said:
it still makes more sense to go for it on the second TD

Additionally its a strategic decision to play for the win and not the tie

Does the math factor in OT? I doubt it...seems the math would only work for "W in regulation", and thus the odds of actually winning less than settling for a tie

So glad he did it :p
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It does not make more sense to go for it on the second TD. If you miss that you lose because you kicked an extra point on the first one. If you go for it on the first one and miss you can make it up with the second, or just kick the extra point if you got the first one. Glad we won though so it worked out for the Vols!
 
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#13
#13
I didn't like the decision, math be damned.

However, as i pointed out in another thread, I have no doubt in my mind, that if the extra points were kicked, Tennessee gets the first downs they need at the end of the game to run out the clock on their last possession or score.

There isn't a decision that was made in this game that wasn't influenced by the fact that Napier knew Florida had a snowball's chance in hell of stopping Tennessee's offense.

There were several unorthodox decisions made in this game, which happened to be the only reason the score was close.
 
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#14
#14
CincinnatiVols said:
It does not make more sense to go for it on the second TD. If you miss that you lose because you kicked an extra point on the first one. If you go for it on the first one and miss you can make it up with the second, or just kick the extra point if you got the first one. Glad we won though so it worked out for the Vols!
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It doesn't matter which one you miss, you lose the ability to tie the game

It's best to delay that as long as possible

There may be a math model somewhere that says otherwise, if so, its run and read by people who have no sense of actual strategy

its the old Garbage In, Garbage Out

If the assumption you feed into the pewter is "how do I win in regulation" then OF COURSE the two point should be attempted!

If you want to play for OT its an idiotic decision, period, dot
 
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#16
#16
JoAllan said:
Yep…….gotta do with the book says…….because he hasn’t a clue.
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Exactly! And just like Butch, claims that it was "mathematically the best choice" are highly dubious at best

If your goal is to win in regulation, it was the right choice. But that DOES NOT make it more likely than a tie. The tie is FAR MORE LIKELY. Like literally virtually 100% vs 50% or 2-1.

So how do you calculate the odds of winning in OT if you settle for the tie, and how are those calculated? Straight up home vs visitor? The only way it makes sense is if the gators were a heavy dog in OT, and I just don't see it.

Heck, if you factor in momentum they might actually be the favorites in OT.

Sorry but I know BS when I smell it.

But ask Lyle about "the chart" again! Please!! lmao
 
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#17
#17
Only thing I can figure is he went for it the first time because he wanted two TDs and a field goal to win, rather than going to OT. Maybe figured that we would outlast him in OT.
 
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#18
#18
You kick the extra point on the first one and then go for it on the second because if you hit on the second you are 2 points down and a FG wins the game...
 
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#20
#20
BanditVol said:
Exactly! And just like Butch, claims that it was "mathematically the best choice" are highly dubious at best

If your goal is to win in regulation, it was the right choice. But that DOES NOT make it more likely than a tie. The tie is FAR MORE LIKELY. Like literally virtually 100% vs 50% or 2-1.

So how do you calculate the odds of winning in OT if you settle for the tie, and how are those calculated? Straight up home vs visitor? The only way it makes sense is if the gators were a heavy dog in OT, and I just don't see it.

Heck, if you factor in momentum they might actually be the favorites in OT.

Sorry but I know BS when I smell it.

But ask Lyle about "the chart" again! Please!! lmao
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So let me get this straight: you are making your point for NOT going for 2 based on your “feelings”. Based on your instincts. Based on what you think is correct. You form your hypothesis with zero measurable data and only your beliefs and what your “gut” tells you. The other, and correct, hypotheses is based on measurable and quantifiable data thats processed by a computer program that can predict outcomes with far greater accuracy than the human mind EVER can. A program written by MIT mathematicians that can solve problems that you would be confused by simply looking at. I have a feeling if you play blackjack you’re the guy that stands on 16 vs the Ace because you “have a feeling.” You don’t double 10 vs the 6 because your “gut” says you’ll lose. You bet the hard 8 in craps because it’s bound to hit sooner or later right? Brother I truly dont care what you believe about mathematics, probabilities, or game theory. I’m not changing your mind and that is ok. I made my living for a decade based solely on gambling. The difference in me eating steak vs eating McDonalds came down to the quality of my strategic decisions. You believe what you want; it’s a free country. But what you’re saying and your belief system is based on hopes, dreams and fairy tales….and you dont pay the bills very long with any of that.
 
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#23
#23
JoAllan said:
Sometimes you don’t need a book or model. I bet most coaches don’t do what he did……maybe Kiffin maybe some others…..but most certainly don’t.

I like it because it shows he “knew” his team needed anything and everything just for a chance to beat Tennessee.

Not too long ago Tennessee needed smoke and mirrors to try and win games.

Now……shoes on the other foot.

Tennessee simply plays straight up……..other teams need the bag O tricks and magic to try and win games.

I LOVE IT!!
Click to expand...
Yup basically he knew early they weren't gonna be able to get multiple stops on us, I mean we never punted the ball at all. In that situation u almost have to start going for 2 just to make up ground. You're right most coaches would just kick the pat if they thought they could stop us. If Fla makes even the first 2pt conversion I believe we keep the foot on the gas and get close to 50.
 
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