Mint Julips And Winning $$$$$$$$$$ Time

#1
Fine Vol

Fine Vol

Go Vols
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Sep 15, 2006
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#1
I always bet on the Derby and usually bet on the horse that is the favorite. I thought I could start a thread that people give advice on betting horses or storys about you winning or losing money on horses.
 
#2
#2
I rarely bet favorites, unless I decide on an exacta or trifecta box.
 
#4
#4
Some of my worst days at the track have occured when I go with my thorougbred training buddies. I have discovered when I tag along with them it is better to spend my cash on burgoo, bread pudding and makers.

On my wedding day my best man and I cashed a $500 ticket on a horse named Wedlock.
 
#5
#5
Must...make...Keeneland...this....spring.


There, it is now embedded in my mental to-do list.
 
#7
#7
I bet at the greyhound racetrack when we go to Florida once a year.(I adapted a greyhound that use to run there so I feel I'm doing my part).Anyways biggest win was trifecta (box?) Bet $6.00 won $989.00 .I did have to fill out forms at track for IRS and report winnings at taxtime.But I got pretty good at looking at dogs appearance and 50% of the time I could hit 2 of top 3 dogs.Have had alot of close misses.It was a lot of fun.
 
#8
#8
Finevol, my suggestions for handicapping the Derby:

1) Be aware of the running style and tracks over which the contenders have run. This is because you need to account for the long distance of the Derby (1 1/4 mile is a lot for 3 year olds and most will not have run more than a mile prior to this race) and it is over Churchill Downs, which IMHO is not a speed-favoring track.

What I mean by that is that some tracks are speed biased and the layouts (the shrapness of the turns, that kind of thing) favors horses that run on the lead. The main examples are Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Horses that ran well on the lead there may look deceptively good compared to horses that only made up moderate ground at the end of the same race.

For example, a horse that wins the Santa Anite Derby from on the lead or just off it is probably not going to fare nearly as well at Churchill at 1 1/4 miles as a horse that closed from 8th to 4th or 5th. The fact that there will also be a much larger field than in any other race adds to the benefit of closers IMHO because there is usually a battle for the front and that tires out the horses on the lead.

2) The favorite rarely wins the Derby. Just a fact. With 17-20 horses, traffic trouble and four other young horses simply "waking up" and running their best of the season is historical fact. Sure, the favorite will sometimes win or place in that race, but over time if you want to eek out any profit don't bet the favorite at the Derby.

3) My particular style in the past has been to pick the best closer that is at least 15 to 1 and bet him to win and then wheel him second in the exactas plus a couple of extras with the other horses I like. It gets expensive because of the size of the field, but its a race where there is a genuine opportunity to get a nice price back on horses that are clearly talented and whose owners and trainers think are hitting their stride.
 
#9
#9
utfantilidie said:
I bet at the greyhound racetrack when we go to Florida once a year.(I adapted a greyhound that use to run there so I feel I'm doing my part).Anyways biggest win was trifecta (box?) Bet $6.00 won $989.00 .I did have to fill out forms at track for IRS and report winnings at taxtime.But I got pretty good at looking at dogs appearance and 50% of the time I could hit 2 of top 3 dogs.Have had alot of close misses.It was a lot of fun.
Click to expand...
Was it the Melbourne track?
 
#10
#10
I bet the Derby, but more for ***** and giggles than anything else, there is so much action that the odds get skewed constantly through the day....generally I'll bet Mountaineer and Prairie Downs, though its mostly nags, theres better nags than others, print out the full equibase book in the morning and browse through it nice and easy whenever i feel like it throughout the day, do my brain farting and usually come up with 2-4 solid win bets, and a few EX/TRI's, as well as 1 pick 3...I don't wager enough to get rich, just enough to make it worth yelling at the TV. I deposited $100 one buzzed night about 15 months ago, and still feed off that, using $100 as the bottom line...if i have enough on top to take the old lady to Chili's for dinner and enough beers to get happy a month, then that's a good month.

They say that for a full time track weasel 3-4% is a great profit margin, so i guess im doing that, if not better....sure don't plan on quitting the day job, though
 
#11
#11
lawgator1 said:
Finevol, my suggestions for handicapping the Derby:

1) Be aware of the running style and tracks over which the contenders have run. This is because you need to account for the long distance of the Derby (1 1/4 mile is a lot for 3 year olds and most will not have run more than a mile prior to this race) and it is over Churchill Downs, which IMHO is not a speed-favoring track.

What I mean by that is that some tracks are speed biased and the layouts (the shrapness of the turns, that kind of thing) favors horses that run on the lead. The main examples are Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Horses that ran well on the lead there may look deceptively good compared to horses that only made up moderate ground at the end of the same race.

For example, a horse that wins the Santa Anite Derby from on the lead or just off it is probably not going to fare nearly as well at Churchill at 1 1/4 miles as a horse that closed from 8th to 4th or 5th. The fact that there will also be a much larger field than in any other race adds to the benefit of closers IMHO because there is usually a battle for the front and that tires out the horses on the lead.

2) The favorite rarely wins the Derby. Just a fact. With 17-20 horses, traffic trouble and four other young horses simply "waking up" and running their best of the season is historical fact. Sure, the favorite will sometimes win or place in that race, but over time if you want to eek out any profit don't bet the favorite at the Derby.

3) My particular style in the past has been to pick the best closer that is at least 15 to 1 and bet him to win and then wheel him second in the exactas plus a couple of extras with the other horses I like. It gets expensive because of the size of the field, but its a race where there is a genuine opportunity to get a nice price back on horses that are clearly talented and whose owners and trainers think are hitting their stride.
Click to expand...
Ah, good advice, I will try to make some of these ideas work for the big three. If I win big because of you advice do you really want to know?:whistling:
 
#12
#12
Fine Vol said:
Ah, good advice, I will try to make some of these ideas work for the big three. If I win big because of you advice do you really want to know?:whistling:
Click to expand...


Sure, if it helps, I'm glad. I'm not one of those people who gets mad at you because you win and I don't.
 
#13
#13
For example, a horse that wins the Santa Anite Derby from on the lead or just off it is probably not going to fare nearly as well at Churchill at 1 1/4 miles as a horse that closed from 8th to 4th or 5th. The fact that there will also be a much larger field than in any other race adds to the benefit of closers IMHO because there is usually a battle for the front and that tires out the horses on the lead.

Great point, odds are they arent going to be in the Derby unless they are winners somewhere else...they are all winners, but alot of them are wire-to-wire leaders, the lurkers and closers are the way to go
 
#15
#15
JTrainDavis said:
For example, a horse that wins the Santa Anite Derby from on the lead or just off it is probably not going to fare nearly as well at Churchill at 1 1/4 miles as a horse that closed from 8th to 4th or 5th. The fact that there will also be a much larger field than in any other race adds to the benefit of closers IMHO because there is usually a battle for the front and that tires out the horses on the lead.

Great point, odds are they arent going to be in the Derby unless they are winners somewhere else...they are all winners, but alot of them are wire-to-wire leaders, the lurkers and closers are the way to go
Click to expand...


It is a rare three year old that has both tactical early speed followed by a monster closing kick. Its usually one run for all of them, and that's either getting to the front early or making a run at the leaders down the stretch. At 1 1/4 miles on a fairly soft track, my experience is that the latter do better than the former.
 
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