Let’s will ourselves into recession

[n_huffhines]

I see what you are saying that economic consumer activity will be greater, but these immigrants will have to have jobs to create this. Just a bunch of immigrants with no jobs is a loser economically and will actually drain more resources. Otherwise, next recession, lets just import a few tens of millions to boost the economy.

Often they create their own jobs and jobs for natives, too. Nobody is saying that you can just drop 5 million immigrants into a bad economy and it's going to fix everything. What I'm saying is limiting immigration below what the market demands is bad for an economy. We have 7m jobs to fill right now and we're trying to prevent people from filling those jobs. That's a Trump admin number. It makes no sense.

To your point, cheap labor is a great way to jump-start a struggling economy, if that's what the market demands.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Velo you seem more educated than me. Did I hear correctly that there is $15T in world wide bond market that are paying negative interest rates? I did hear that Germany had negative growth last quarter, and with China's slower growth, it is becoming worldwide.

Just think of what an inverted yield curve means for retirement plans, pensions and savers. 10 and 20 year bonds paying the same or less than 3 year notes.

I swear, some of you people see this nonsense and still bury your heads in the sand. When the music stops, you all will the same ones saying "Who would have seen this coming? The Dow was at all time highs and I had a line of customers out my door..."

You all need to be taking note of the warning bells. The sky going to be falling soon enough...

 

[VolStrom]

Often they create their own jobs and jobs for natives, too. Nobody is saying that you can just drop 5 million immigrants into a bad economy and it's going to fix everything. What I'm saying is limiting immigration below what the market demands is bad for an economy. We have 7m jobs to fill right now and we're trying to prevent people from filling those jobs. That's a Trump admin number. It makes no sense.

To your point, cheap labor is a great way to jump-start a struggling economy, if that's what the market demands.

So enlighten us dumb rednecks what those 7 million jobs want in a person? Are they manual labor any person with a back can do them, or are they jobs that require an education?

 

[The Original Fade]

Ooooorrrrrr... the problem is that Trump has meddled with the market way too much because he knows that fooling people into thinking it is THE measure of the economy is his only prayer of reelection. And when reality sets in on fundamentals and the real and inevitable correction occurs, he's doomed.

Not as long as unemployment, especially among minorities, remains at a record low

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Velo you seem more educated than me. Did I hear correctly that there is $15T in world wide bond market that are paying negative interest rates? I did hear that Germany had negative growth last quarter, and with China's slower growth, it is becoming worldwide.

There's $16 trillion of negative yielding worldwide debt right now.

A recession happens about every 3-3.5 years. Most of the liberals cheering for the next one have no clue what a recession is.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Just think of what an inverted yield curve means for retirement plans, pensions and savers. 10 and 20 year bonds paying the same or less than 3 year notes.

I swear, some of you people see this nonsense and still bury your heads in the sand. When the music stops, you all will the same ones saying "Who would have seen this coming? The Dow was at all time highs and I had a line of customers out my door..."

You all need to be taking note of the warning bells. The sky going to be falling soon enough...

So retirees should buy short duration corporate bond funds right now. It's not that hard.

 

[37L1]

There's $16 trillion of negative yielding worldwide debt right now.

A recession happens about every 3-3.5 years. Most of the liberals cheering for the next one have no clue what a recession is.

Oh they know alright. But their TDS is so strong, if they looked in the mirror and their nose said Trump 2020 on it, they would cut it off.

 

[Orangeslice13]

There is a saying that it is always darkest before the dawn. I can't think of a saying that is the converse of that, but just something for you to consider.

Meh.
I was busy during the last down turn. I’ll be working while everyone else struggles. I have zero overhead and the only expense is payroll.
I’ve fired Everyone before and worked with a smaller crew. I suppose at some point I’ll have to do that again.

 

[AM64]

I see what you are saying that economic consumer activity will be greater, but these immigrants will have to have jobs to create this. Just a bunch of immigrants with no jobs is a loser economically and will actually drain more resources. Otherwise, next recession, lets just import a few tens of millions to boost the economy.

And free stuff for them ... healthcare, education, ... Then sell them all houses they can't afford; that'll really get things bubbling.

On a serious note there's something going on in trucking apparently. Either a slowdown or a slowdown in the increase ... hard to tell with the lack of quality reporting. If it's a true slowdown and not some manufactured idiocy comparing Christmas shipping to midyear shipping, that might be an indicator that the economy is slowing.

 

[RavinDave]

Meh.
I was busy during the last down turn. I’ll be working while everyone else struggles. I have zero overhead and the only expense is payroll.
I’ve fired Everyone before and worked with a smaller crew. I suppose at some point I’ll have to do that again.

Well, I can only fire myself or my wife. So there’s that.

 

[VolStrom]

And free stuff for them ... healthcare, education, ... Then sell them all houses they can't afford; that'll really get things bubbling.

On a serious note there's something going on in trucking apparently. Either a slowdown or a slowdown in the increase ... hard to tell with the lack of quality reporting. If it's a true slowdown and not some manufactured idiocy comparing Christmas shipping to midyear shipping, that might be an indicator that the economy is slowing.

I'm not sure what you're seeing, but I don't see any lack of UPS or Fedex trucks driving up and down my street every day. When I get on the interstate they seem to multiply. So what is the indicator of recession that you see in the trucking industry?

 

[Velo Vol]

Velo you seem more educated than me. Did I hear correctly that there is $15T in world wide bond market that are paying negative interest rates? I did hear that Germany had negative growth last quarter, and with China's slower growth, it is becoming worldwide.

There's $16 trillion of negative yielding worldwide debt right now.

A recession happens about every 3-3.5 years. Most of the liberals cheering for the next one have no clue what a recession is.

Correct, except for the last sentence.

What's noteworthy is how fast yield on debt has been declining. Basically the U.S. is the only place left with positive yield on "safe" bonds.

 

[Velo Vol]

Dear god people. A recession is not coming.

There won't be one this year. Next year? Who can say? Odds are at least 30%.

Employment data and consumer spending have been holding up. Other data is now on a more concerning trajectory.

 

[VolStrom]

There won't be one this year. Next year? Who can say? Odds are at least 30%.

Employment data and consumer spending have been holding up. Other data is now on a more concerning trajectory.

If a Democrat gets elected, we're looking at a world wide depression. Since we're the only country on earth with a decent economy if some socialist like Warren gets elected we are all screwed.

 

[Orangeburst]

Correct, except for the last sentence.

What's noteworthy is how fast yield on debt has been declining. Basically the U.S. is the only place left with positive yield on "safe" bonds.

Isn't this good and allow us cheap money for borrowing? I cannot wrap my head around people investing for a negative return. I would think a lot of cash hoarding.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

So retirees should buy short duration corporate bond funds right now. It's not that hard.

And how much are they paying?

You still don't get it.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I’ve fired Everyone before and worked with a smaller crew. I suppose at some point I’ll have to do that again.

Those people that you have to let go have financial obligations. Maybe my warning wouldn't do you any good, but in general, the average person on the street needs to be alert at this moment.

 

[Velo Vol]

Isn't this good and allow us cheap money for borrowing? I cannot wrap my head around people investing for a negative return. I would think a lot of cash hoarding.

If you're borrowing a lot, such as a mortgage, low rates are good. Not so much for savers

Much of the money that's going into negative interest rates is from institutions that have to park large amounts of money somewhere.

Just this week the U.S. floated the idea of 100-year bonds (a few countries already sell them). Can you imagine buying a 100-year bond?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

A recession happens about every 3-3.5 years. Most of the liberals cheering for the next one have no clue what a recession is.

We're going on ten years right now. You can only push the beach-ball so far down in the pool...

 

[Orangeburst]

If you're borrowing a lot, such as a mortgage, low rates are good. Not so much for savers

Much of the money that's going into negative interest rates is from institutions that have to park large amounts of money somewhere.

Just this week the U.S. floated the idea of 100-year bonds (a few countries already sell them). Can you imagine buying a 100-year bond?

Why would we float 100 year bonds? Seems like institutions would flock to buy short term T-Bills at 0%. Dollar will go the way of the Confederate Dollar by then.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Just this week the U.S. floated the idea of 100-year bonds (a few countries already sell them). Can you imagine buying a 100-year bond?

Wait, it is no more ridiculous than us living in a world with negative interest rates.

 

[Velo Vol]

How meaningful of an economic indicator is consumer confidence?

Just an anecdotal observation, but it seems to me that it's disproportionately correlated to the price of gasoline. Which is kind of silly because in the grand scheme of things modest fluctuations aren't going to make or break a household budget.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Wait, it is no more ridiculous than us living in a world with negative interest rates.

WTF are you doing. You put what another poster said as a quote of mine.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Why would we float 100 year bonds? Seems like institutions would flock to buy short term T-Bills at 0%. Dollar will go the way of the Confederate Dollar by then.

View attachment 218543

Wrap your mind around this. There is actually a market for bonds in a ZIRP/NIRP environment. What is that (or should that) be telling you?

If the economy is as booming as we are being lead to believe, wouldn't we be seeing cash flowing into companies that are actually growing and that are able to pump out 6-8% returns outside of the vaperware economy in the FAANG stocks?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

And how much are they paying?

You still don't get it.

I don't get what? They pay as much or as little as they want and get about 2.5% return.

Stop Posting!