Latest ESPN FPI has Vols favorites in nine games

#127
#127
bigdaddy said:
I believe going into the season last year we were favorites in every game. I put zero stock in FPI
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Amen Big,,, throw all the numbers and math out there you want but actually playing the game is what matters.
I appreciate all you guys explaining all this but you can make anything look good or bad on paper. Playing the game is what matters.
Have a great day and Go Big Orange!
 
#128
#128
Hairy Vols said:
If we look at it like that tho. What is Vandy's probability to beat both us and Kentucky? And what is Kentucky's probably to beat both us and Vanderbilt?

You can literally play this both ways.
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FPI says our chance of beating both Kentucky and Vandy is 49%.

It gives Kentucky's chance of beating both us and Vandy as 21%.

And it says Vandy's chance of beating both us and Kentucky is 9%.

If you add them up, that's only 79%. The other 21% belongs to the round-robin possibilities of split games....like We beat Kentucky who beat Vandy who beat us...or we beat Vandy who beat Kentucky who beat us.

Out of all five of those possible outcomes involving the three teams, us sweeping the other two is the strong favorite (by more than a 2 to 1 margin over any other possibility). But the FPI does allow for the chance that any of those things could happen.

What I don't know is whether the FPI includes the possibility that one or more of those games could be cancelled for whatever reason....
 
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#133
#133
goldvol said:
According to those probabilities, the probability of beating all 3 of GT, GA and uSCe is 26.6%

The odds of beating both Kentucky and Vanderbilt is 48.7%.

Gonna be a long year when we lose games our fanbase think we are "supposed" to win. :pilot:
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I think the actual probability of beating Kentucky is higher than 60% (call it 75%) and the odds of beating Vandy are more like 90% given that it is at home.

That would imply a 67.5% chance of beating both.
 
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#137
#137
When do we get to discuss Z scores, Student's T-distribution, confidence intervals, normal distributions, linear regression, null hypothesis, alternative, reject and fail to reject, R, variance, sampled pairs, populations, mu, sigma, standard deviation, data vectors, data sets, arrays and all our other beloved statistical friendlies?

 
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#138
#138
VFL-82-JP said:
Seems about right to me, though I would put both Georgia and LSU games into the "too close to call, pick'em" category. Think we just might break our losing streak to the SEC-West this season.

Would really love to extend our streak on Florida, but it's always a tall order to go into the Swamp and get a W.
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I second all of that. How sweet would that be to go to Gainesville and leave there with a big "W"! I can't see any chance of us winning the East with losses to GA and FL. I feel better about our chances of getting a win against the bulldogs though, if defense steps up.
 
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#139
#139
Predictions are always great but the entire season is going to hinge on injuries to key positions. If we can manage to stay healthy, the sky is the limit. If not, the fire Butch crowd will shine again. My opinion, Butch is not going to get fired. We're going in the right direction and no one wants to go back to where we were before Butch. Good day.
 
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