Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

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If immunity doesn’t come with recovery then this is here to stay. Like a cold. Or the Flu. Or pneumonia. Given we’ve been told that this is far worse than the flu, we’re all ******?

....or, we could just let this play out and let young healthy people contract it and quarantine old, at risk, and caretakers. Quarantining flattens the curve, but it won’t get rid of it completely without vaccines or immunity.

Something has got to give. I feel like what we are going now is a stop gap, and it can’t last forever.

If numbers are really decreasing rapidly in China it has to be the quarantining, immunity build up, or a vaccine. The first isn’t sustainable. This may end up like pneumonia, at risk and caretakers take precautions, but the rest of us live on like we normally would.

Problem there is otherwise healthy 20 to 30 year olds are ending up on ventilators. Reports on that are coming out of Dallas right now.
 
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Letting young healthy people contract this virus and continually build immunity in the population as a whole could have the ability to help those that are at risk.

Herd immunity - Wikipedia

While it goes against “flattening the curve” it could still be just as effective. There will be shock at first with the numbers infected and killed but the death toll has the potential to be comparable if not better than social distancing, just over a shorter timeline. Rip the bandaid off all at once.

Thoughts?

My hospital has 80 ventilators. Based on the current hospitalizations requiring ventilators % among the infected and the local, state, and federal projections that at least 40% of the population becomes infected, that means my county alone would experience over 18,000 patients that require ventilation. Please, for the love of god, reduce that curve.
 
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread –reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognized that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission –will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) –given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.We show that intermittent social distancing –triggered by trends in disease surveillance –may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound.Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be r and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be r

Interesting paper from Imperial College London. Seems that there are two schools of thought on dealing with this: either try and mitigate the initial outbreak which could lead to more infections and deaths or go the route of suppressing this outbreak which would mean long term lock downs. I do agree that we will be dealing with this until a vaccine is developed and until that happens we will see another outbreak develop once restrictions are lifted. I'm glad I'm not having to be in charge of directing the response to this. Either way you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
 
My hospital has 80 ventilators. Based on the current hospitalizations requiring ventilators % among the infected and the local, state, and federal projections that at least 40% of the population becomes infected, that means my county alone would experience over 18,000 patients that require ventilation. Please, for the love of god, reduce that curve.

Where are you getting 40%?

Italy is showing the worst number of cases per million population and they are a little over 500 per million.

How many million people live in your county?
 
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Your comments about their healthcare are complete nonsense. The United States has the worst quality of healthcare of all first world countries. We rank around number 33 Wich is well behind every country with single payer healthcare. If they had our system the problem would have been 100 times worse because people would be too scared to go to the doctor for fear of the cost!

Yeah, the Greek healthcare system is so advanced you can get surgery at a bus stop.

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Having in-laws living in Greece and seeing firsthand the conditions of the "free" medical care facilities there and wait to get into the dumps they call hospitals and clinics, I'll take the broken system we have in the US.
 
Three weeks ago Trump said we were at 15 cases and that would be it, we'd soon be at zero.

We just crossed 6,000 confirmed and actual number is many multiples of that.
 

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