I think that’s probably a numbers thing at this point. The virus seems to have a 1.5-2% death rate, holding steady going into month 2/3 of this.
If the overall number of infected swells in developing countries, I think you will eventually see this same death rate.
I am concerned with the recent appearance of breakouts in Iran and Italy and the emerging trend of clusters that can’t be directly tied to China.
I think we have passed the point where this thing can be contained in one geographical area.
I mean, if this is in non-Asian countries to the point where numbers have grown enough to yield some deaths, how in the world do we (In the U.S.) block travel incoming to the degree to prevent this from showing up more rapidly here? Without a total travel ban?
I think you will see this thing “Jump containment” in the next week or two.