cncchris33
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2009
- Messages
- 32,058
- Likes
- 43,749
If we go 30-1 with that schedule I guarantee you we will be the top overall seed in March. I predicted exactly what the Kenpom shows. 23-8, 12-6. With this schedule that would be no worse than a 3 seed and probably even a 2 depending on the other teams. I hope you are closer to right but even if I am I know this team will play hard, tough, and smart and that doing that will lead to a lot of win and, most importantly, wins in March. Go Vols!I have forecast the regular season record at 30 - 1, but I'm very optimistic about this season.
If we go 30-1 with that schedule I guarantee you we will be the top overall seed in March. I predicted exactly what the Kenpom shows. 23-8, 12-6. With this schedule that would be no worse than a 3 seed and probably even a 2 depending on the other teams. I hope you are closer to right but even if I am I know this team will play hard, tough, and smart and that doing that will lead to a lot of win and, most importantly, wins in March. Go Vols!I have forecast the regular season record at 30 - 1, but I'm very optimistic about this season.
Would be interesting to see your results, but a two-seed would be fantasticSo I create my own efficiency ratings and then calculate game-by-game odds for every game in the season. I also simulate early-season tournaments and conference tournaments. I have Tennessee ranked 9th overall and a regular season record of 24-7 and likely picking up 1-2 wins the SEC tournament. I think that would put them in as a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament
Nerd lol kiddingSo I create my own efficiency ratings and then calculate game-by-game odds for every game in the season. I also simulate early-season tournaments and conference tournaments. I have Tennessee ranked 9th overall and a regular season record of 24-7 and likely picking up 1-2 wins the SEC tournament. I think that would put them in as a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament
Ken Pom calculates home court advantage by school. So I used those when calculating the odds. Over the course of the season seemed to make little difference among highly ranked teams.
Okay, this will come off as nitpicking and I guess it is, but I don't have any faith in KenPom's Home Court Advantage for the Volunteers as it uses data from the past six seasons. So that includes the first three years of Coach Barnes, the year of living dangerously under Slick Tyndall, and Cuonzo's last two years. If you think about it, only one of those years data represents or is similar to MY perceived current home court advantage, and that was last season.
So I will argue that our actual home court advantage is actually larger than what KenPom offers, but then the analysis is so "noisy" it's hard to give it much weight in any case.
Nitpicking nerd mode off.
A preseason ranking is not going to be very accurate on a game-by-game basis. And Tennessee fans certainly can't be relied on to have TBA rocking every game. Over the course of a season a point here and there isn't going to make a huge difference in the projections (I ran them with his HCA as well as a generic 3.2 HCA). But I think his HCA are probably directionally appropriate and worth incorporating.