Kennedy Chandler's future? [drafted No.38 to Memphis]

EZE

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This is not a surprising outcome. At all.

We seem to specialize in getting good players who would benefit from (or maximize their potential with) 3-4 years in college, but think they are better than they really are and head to the NBA Draft too early.
Knowing this result, he certainly woulda been better off staying another year in college.

It’s sad for most of these kids. They get hyped up to leave early, and then many of them struggle to find a solid foothold in the league. Chandler could surprise everyone, but it is looking like he and the two last season are going to struggle to find a stable home.

GWill, through a lot of hard work, looks like he will stick for a lucrative career, but he was a three-and-done. He has been the exception.
 

HippieVol33

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Man. Kennedy easily could’ve come back and lead a team that would compete to be one of our best ever, and probably improve his stock at least enough to go in the first. We even have an open scholarship spot, we would still have everybody we currently do
He wasn’t going to grow anymore. He went young, which gives him an advantage. Just glad we got a season of him. The kid was different and likely the best PG to ever play here.
 

SJAVol32

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Okay, I think we need to realize whether KC left this year or next. He wasn’t going to improve his stock. He got caught in a loaded class and dropped. He killed it at the combine and from everything reported he had good private workouts. Being 5’11 (without shoes) and 180 lbs is always going to scare teams away. I don’t know if KC ever becomes THE guard for a team but he has the game that will translate to a long career in the NBA.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Okay, I think we need to realize whether KC left this year or next. He wasn’t going to improve his stock. He got caught in a loaded class and dropped. He killed it at the combine and from everything reported he had good private workouts. Being 5’11 (without shoes) and 180 lbs is always going to scare teams away. I don’t know if KC ever becomes THE guard for a team but he has the game that will translate to a long career in the NBA.
Don’t think that’s accurate at all…that’s not to say lottery pick, but had he returned and bumped his 3pt% up over 40% and FT% up over 85%+, I’m very confident he would’ve been picked higher that 38.
 

CAVPUT

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Don’t think that’s accurate at all…that’s not to say lottery pick, but had he returned and bumped his 3pt% up over 40% and FT% up over 85%+, I’m very confident he would’ve been picked higher that 38.
Yep. The NBA is a league of length and supreme athleticism. If someone 6'0" is going to go first round in this league's draft, they'd better have a damned bulletproof game. Chandler can and will get better, but as you pointed out, his FT/3PT game needed a lot of work. No way he was going in the first round with that package. Good news is he'll have tons of time to work on his game. Memphis will likely stash him somewhere and develop the rest of his game. He'll likely have a decent career as a solid backup PG. Bad news is we don't have him to hold up in recruiting as a first rounder. Bottom line....he needed another year. He listened to the wrong people.
 

SJAVol32

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Don’t think that’s accurate at all…that’s not to say lottery pick, but had he returned and bumped his 3pt% up over 40% and FT% up over 85%+, I’m very confident he would’ve been picked higher that 38.
I can agree with that. I think once you get out of the top 20 picks. You’re looking at best fit rather than highest pick. I think it worked out for Kennedy as a whole. Obviously you want the first round guaranteed money. If Kennedy is ready, Memphis is going to give him opportunities at the back up spot.
 

Stoerner Fumbles

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KC is a much better player than TyTy....I don't understand why KC would drop that far...
I was just trying to share some information on what was about to happen before it happened. Apparently Memphis and San Antonio spent an inordinate amount of time on KC in the last week, requesting tons of other teams’ workout reports, etc. Smoke/fire. As for KC being better than TyTy, obviously scouts and coaches disagree. I’m a fan. Like you, I prefer our guy. In fairness, TyTy spent quite a bit of last season injured, and his height advantage is material. He looks more like an NBA body. KC has a good home and is a year closer to his second deal. Other than that, it’s a bummer for him, and for us. Developing his outside scoring and driving more could’ve moved him into the first round next year.
 
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walkenvol

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This is not a surprising outcome. At all.

We seem to specialize in getting good players who would benefit from (or maximize their potential with) 3-4 years in college, but think they are better than they really are and head to the NBA Draft too early.
You just described over half of the players drafted - it’s not just a Tennessee thing
 

Vol49er

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NBA draft doesn’t trade on free throws and muscle. They can fix those things.
Eh but free throw percentage is commonly used by the NBA to determine if a guy is gonna be a good shooter at the next level. Though Kennedy shot well from three it seems likely teams thought that was a mirage given the low sample size and poor FT shooting (plus who knows what happens when he shot for teams)
 

Vol49er

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He wasn’t going to grow anymore. He went young, which gives him an advantage. Just glad we got a season of him. The kid was different and likely the best PG to ever play here.
Yeah, I should emphasize I’m grateful for even one year. I was so mad after the tourney loss I even said he should go because he was the only one who played well that game and he deserved to win. He definitely did not owe us anything in coming back but in hindsight it may have benefitted both parties (though I also typed that original comment before it became clear he’d be a Grizz so that helps)
 

cncchris33

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Okay, I think we need to realize whether KC left this year or next. He wasn’t going to improve his stock. He got caught in a loaded class and dropped. He killed it at the combine and from everything reported he had good private workouts. Being 5’11 (without shoes) and 180 lbs is always going to scare teams away. I don’t know if KC ever becomes THE guard for a team but he has the game that will translate to a long career in the NBA.
Strongly disagree. Again, see TJ Ford.

Lots of things KC could improve on. Yeah, he wasn't likely to grow any more, but he had holes in his game that he could fix that would have given teams less reason to doubt his size.

TJ Ford had a great freshman season, similar to Chandler...
Ford: 10.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 8.3 apg, 4.0 tpg...41% FG%, 15% 3-pt%, 78% FT%

Chandler: 13.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.7 apg, 2.5 tpg...46% FG%, 38% 3-pt%, 61% FT%

Ford came back for his sophomore year, became a better shooter, a better scorer, cut down on the TOs, and maintained most every other statistical area. He became a top-10 pick. KC may have never been a top-10 guy, but he certainly could have improved on 38th overall.
 

bleedingTNorange

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Chris Paul is 6’. If KC had returned and added 10-15 pounds of muscle along with getting his ft’s up to 80%, would that have made him a higher draft pick?
Paul shot over 47% from 3 and 84% from the FT line, also averaged almost 7apg the year he got drafted…yea, if Chandler’s numbers mirrored those of Paul’s he definitely would have been a higher draft pick.
 

VolFreakJosh

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I think he should have stayed another year.

Yes, he wasn’t going to grow anymore but he had a few holes in his game that Barnes could have easily helped him improve on.
 

Stoerner Fumbles

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Chris Paul is 6’. If KC had returned and added 10-15 pounds of muscle along with getting his ft’s up to 80%, would that have made him a higher draft pick?
NBA draft doesn’t trade on free throws and muscle. They can fix those things.
Other than more bulk, what physical talent does CP have over KC that is more desired by the NBA?
He was a much more complete player: Assists, Assists to TO, shot. CP was a very reliable stock by draft time.
 

Stoerner Fumbles

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Eh but free throw percentage is commonly used by the NBA to determine if a guy is gonna be a good shooter at the next level. Though Kennedy shot well from three it seems likely teams thought that was a mirage given the low sample size and poor FT shooting (plus who knows what happens when he shot for teams)
It’s a bit more/nuanced and complex than that. They study shots and shot mechanics obsessively. If they have limited data on shooting for a player with borderline mechanics, they’ll deconstruct FT’s. KC has a good body of work as a shooter. Nothing would’ve helped him more than improving his 3, and he sure looked like a guy who would’ve done so with another year.
 

turbovol

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He wasn’t going to grow anymore. He went young, which gives him an advantage. Just glad we got a season of him. The kid was different and likely the best PG to ever play here.

I hate the one-and-done ethic and think it's been horrible for college basketball. Beyond that, most of the young men who leave after a year end up sitting on the bench for years. This notion that they all take the NBA by storm is a complete myth. The league is full of former one-and-doners who mostly ride the pine.

That said, I agree: Chandler wasn't going to improve his game demonstrably by staying another year at UT. I think his size is one reason he fell in the draft. He conceivably could have been drafted a little earlier next year--but that's pure speculation and would depend on all the other players who'd be draft available next year.
 

KB5252

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KC had to know the move was a little bit of a gamble, he was inconsistent at times this year and add others stated the class was loaded. He probably should have come back another year with a better shot at first round guaranteed money with better 3 point%.

As they say hindsight is 20/20.
 

turbovol

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It’s a bit more/nuanced and complex than that. They study shots and shot mechanics obsessively. If they have limited data on shooting for a player with borderline mechanics, they’ll deconstruct FT’s. KC has a good body of work as a shooter. Nothing would’ve helped him more than improving his 3, and he sure looked like a guy who would’ve done so with another year.
He can improve his 3-point shooting in the NBA. Look at Grant Williams: He wasn't a 3-point shooter in college, most Boston fans would have been happy to see him traded after his first year or two, but he suddenly became a good three-point shooter and this year was a valuable sub. YOU HAVE to be a 3-point shooter to be a viable NBA player, because that's esssentially what the league is about--hoisting treys. Chandler will have plenty of time to improve his shooting--which isn't bad at all right now.
 

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