Just saw this crazy stat

[BlueLineVolFan]

Espn FPI has LSU with a 58% chance to win. Hopefully this turns into a motivation factor. I understand playing there makes this a tough game but lets be honest it should be us with 58% chance to win. I now see what everyone means when they say ESPN hates us. I'm sure they dont need the motivation but I hope the defense takes notice of the little things like this and shows up and shows out!!

 

[MiramarVol]

They're mad we are in the top 10.....

 

[WhatInVolnation]

Y'all, UT has beat a likely overrated Pitt on the road in OT and a decent UF at home and the other two wins were over cupcakes. Not only that, UT has struggled for years and has not yet shown it can deal with success. Even more, it is on the road in Baton Rouge against an LSU program that has had ups and downs but has been very good overall in the 2000s and still has talent. I think the game is a toss up and 58% chance for LSU at home is a pretty good indication of that being the case rather than some kind of smear against UT. I mean, it isn't 90% that LSU will win. I also think the algorithm that feeds the FPI is a stronger indicator later in the season after more data is available about current teams and it is still relatively early. And so, I don't think this is some kind of ESPN bias against UT as it is an algorithm and UT is going to be challenged in Baton Rouge and the game could go either way. The Vols better bring their A game if they want to win.

 

[sjt18]

Y'all, UT has beat a likely overrated Pitt on the road in OT and a decent UF at home and the other two wins were over cupcakes.

LSU has beaten MSU who likely would not beat UF and maybe not Pitt. They lost to a good, not great, FSU team. They needed a late rally and were statistically dominated by the team that will likely finish last in the West. Their other two opponents were worse "cupcakes" than what UT played.

I'm not actually disagreeing with your assessment of UT's schedule though Pitt will probably still look like a good win at the end of the year and UF may be a harder out going forward. What I'm disputing is the one-sidedness of your thinking. You looked at UT but not LSU.

FPI produces some headscratchers at time but their formula depends on the amount of data they have. Each week more wins and losses and cross comparisons can be made. Right now they have 5 games on LSU and 4 on UT.

Not only that, UT has struggled for years and has not yet shown it can deal with success.

Which has absolutely, positively NOTHING to do with the here and now. It is a ridiculous argument to even bring up.

Even more, it is on the road in Baton Rouge

That's relevant.

against an LSU program that has had ups and downs but has been very good overall in the 2000s

That is irrelevant.

and still has talent.

That is the MOST relevant. LSU has a lot of talent which gives them the ability to make a "big play" that changes the course of the game.

I think the game is a toss up and 58% chance for LSU at home is a pretty good indication of that being the case rather than some kind of smear against UT.

If there is a human element then it is somewhat of a smear possibly based on some of the same irrelevant ideas that you mentioned above. But my understanding is that they primarily use data.

I mean, it isn't 90% that LSU will win. I also think the algorithm that feeds the FPI is a stronger indicator later in the season after more data is available about current teams and it is still relatively early. And so, I don't think this is some kind of ESPN bias against UT as it is an algorithm

Correct. It is possible that some of the "previous success" bias hasn't worked its way out yet.

and UT is going to be challenged in Baton Rouge and the game could go either way. The Vols better bring their A game if they want to win.

Sure. But what "game" does LSU have to bring to win? I'm going to be honest and say that UT's "B+" game beats LSU's A game right now. When you strip away the "cupcakes" then LSU has played 3 big opponents if you count Auburn. In those games, they've gained 345 ypg and allowed 373 ypg. UT has played two. In those games, the Vols have gained an average of 496 ypg and alllowed 504.... skewed by UF's late charge.

So can LSU's lackluster offense make hey against UT's D... and can they stop UT's O better than Pitt or UF has?

You guys who only look at UT in a vacuum always puzzle me.

 

[JRich]

Y'all, UT has beat a likely overrated Pitt on the road in OT and a decent UF at home and the other two wins were over cupcakes. Not only that, UT has struggled for years and has not yet shown it can deal with success. Even more, it is on the road in Baton Rouge against an LSU program that has had ups and downs but has been very good overall in the 2000s and still has talent. I think the game is a toss up and 58% chance for LSU at home is a pretty good indication of that being the case rather than some kind of smear against UT. I mean, it isn't 90% that LSU will win. I also think the algorithm that feeds the FPI is a stronger indicator later in the season after more data is available about current teams and it is still relatively early. And so, I don't think this is some kind of ESPN bias against UT as it is an algorithm and UT is going to be challenged in Baton Rouge and the game could go either way. The Vols better bring their A game if they want to win.

There is no room for logic and reason on this board.

 

[TOrange99]

The FPI takes in several factors which determines chances of winning, and should be an eye opener for those who think we go in and curb stomp them.
247 recruiting rankings is a major factor and returning starters as well, I feel like the rankings below and home field is why they have a 58% advantage.
'18 - LSU -15 TN - 21
'19 - LSU - 5 TN - 13
'20 - LSU - 4 TN - 11
'21 - LSU - 3 TN - 22

Their QB isn't great but he's a legit running threat, and before anyone mentions Richardson was too he was still a little gimpy but I do feel like Richardson is more accurate.
I really see this as last years Ole Miss game style wise, I just hope the calls go our way this time.

 

[VolBricks]

nice it has come down, to 58%. I posted this the other day:
"why are they making excuses, the ESPN FPI tracker has them favored to win 59.1 to our 40.9"

 

[DiderotsGhost]

It's a quant model and a reasonably good one. Doesn't mean it's right; 4 games isn't a lot of data. In fact, the quant models are more divided on LSU than just about any other team. Some of them have LSU as a top 10 team; others not even in the top 30.

Frankly I don't know what to think of LSU either. Beat a good Miss State team, looked terrible against a bad Auburn team, and lost an ugly game to Florida State.

I think the betting line is about right. We should be very slight favorites, but that's it.

 

[fossilfiction]

I don't know, it feels like the right spot for a letdown. I think Tennessee wins, but this is about to be a boring, slow-moving, close game that will stir up some bad feelings. I believe CBK when he said he plans to slow Tennessee down. The clock will be inside the ten every time LSU runs a play.

 

[sjt18]

There is no room for logic and reason on this board.

Some of that was neither logic nor reason.

 

[sjt18]

I don't know, it feels like the right spot for a letdown. I think Tennessee wins, but this is about to be a boring, slow-moving, close game that will stir up some bad feelings. I believe CBK when he said he plans to slow Tennessee down. The clock will be inside the ten every time LSU runs a play.

I think every opponent so far has done that. Also part of his ability to do that depends on UT not getting a lead. If the Vols can get up even as much as Auburn did then he won't be able to stick to that strategy.

 

[ru4real-really?]

yea, but let's bet Tennessee as a three point favorite! ESPN is full of crap!

 

[fossilfiction]

I think every opponent so far has done that. Also part of his ability to do that depends on UT not getting a lead. If the Vols can get up even as much as Auburn did then he won't be able to stick to that strategy.

I don't recall any of them doing it this year. Pitt is slow by design, but nobody we have played has slow rolled us like Kentucky did last year. I expect that type of slow-moving from LSU.

But yes you are correct, get a couple of scores up, and that game plan is your death.

 

[Volador]

For 60 minutes, we just have to keep our foot on the pedal - especially the Offense. Our D will give up points - just gonna happen. The O, like first 4 games, just gotta score more.

​

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Y'all, UT has beat a likely overrated Pitt on the road in OT and a decent UF at home and the other two wins were over cupcakes. Not only that, UT has struggled for years and has not yet shown it can deal with success. Even more, it is on the road in Baton Rouge against an LSU program that has had ups and downs but has been very good overall in the 2000s and still has talent. I think the game is a toss up and 58% chance for LSU at home is a pretty good indication of that being the case rather than some kind of smear against UT. I mean, it isn't 90% that LSU will win. I also think the algorithm that feeds the FPI is a stronger indicator later in the season after more data is available about current teams and it is still relatively early. And so, I don't think this is some kind of ESPN bias against UT as it is an algorithm and UT is going to be challenged in Baton Rouge and the game could go either way. The Vols better bring their A game if they want to win.

We are a 3 pt favorite

 

[wtmvol]

Espn FPI has LSU with a 58% chance to win. Hopefully this turns into a motivation factor. I understand playing there makes this a tough game but lets be honest it should be us with 58% chance to win. I now see what everyone means when they say ESPN hates us. I'm sure they dont need the motivation but I hope the defense takes notice of the little things like this and shows up and shows out!!

I'm not sure that stat really qualifies as "crazy". Just scanning through other games this weekend, there are several where the ESPN FPI favorite doesn't align with the Vegas favorite. This isn't an ESPN hates us thing. It's a calculated metric based on a formula - Kirk Herbstreit and Beth Mowins aren't sitting in a dark room conniving on how to piss off Tennessee fans.

 

[Jauan't Some?]

It's a quant model and a reasonably good one. Doesn't mean it's right; 4 games isn't a lot of data. In fact, the quant models are more divided on LSU than just about any other team. Some of them have LSU as a top 10 team; others not even in the top 30.

Frankly I don't know what to think of LSU either. Beat a good Miss State team, looked terrible against a bad Auburn team, and lost an ugly game to Florida State.

I think the betting line is about right. We should be very slight favorites, but that's it.

It seems like FPI heavily weights recruiting success and returning starters. LSU is one of the puzzling ones to me this year when I try to make sense of their model. What am I missing?

 

[IndianaVol]

It seems like FPI heavily weights recruiting success and returning starters. LSU is one of the puzzling ones to me this year when I try to make sense of their model. What am I missing?

LSU has pulled in top ten recruiting classes the last 4 or 5 years.
Couple that with they have a ton of returning starters and lost very little to the portal (or at least not as much as you would think with a coaching change).
Biggest thing in the FPI that is skewing everything is the Kelly factor...I think the FPI folks are suing Brian Kelly's time at ND as part of the equation which kind of inflates the LSU number.

 

[Other_Guy]

I'm not sure what's worse, the idea they look at something like that or that they need motivation for playing a big time SEC game on the road.

 

[LittleVol]

It's a quant model and a reasonably good one. Doesn't mean it's right; 4 games isn't a lot of data. In fact, the quant models are more divided on LSU than just about any other team. Some of them have LSU as a top 10 team; others not even in the top 30.

Frankly I don't know what to think of LSU either. Beat a good Miss State team, looked terrible against a bad Auburn team, and lost an ugly game to Florida State.

I think the betting line is about right. We should be very slight favorites, but that's it.

LSU is definitely a top 15 team with a healthy Daniels at QB

 

[Ratvol]

We gonna kick the boudin out of em.

Go VOLS

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

LSU has beaten MSU who likely would not beat UF and maybe not Pitt. They lost to a good, not great, FSU team. They needed a late rally and were statistically dominated by the team that will likely finish last in the West. Their other two opponents were worse "cupcakes" than what UT played.

I'm not actually disagreeing with your assessment of UT's schedule though Pitt will probably still look like a good win at the end of the year and UF may be a harder out going forward. What I'm disputing is the one-sidedness of your thinking. You looked at UT but not LSU.

FPI produces some headscratchers at time but their formula depends on the amount of data they have. Each week more wins and losses and cross comparisons can be made. Right now they have 5 games on Pitt and 4 on UT.

Which has absolutely, positively NOTHING to do with the here and now. It is a ridiculous argument to even bring up.

That's relevant.

That is irrelevant.

That is the MOST relevant. LSU has a lot of talent which gives them the ability to make a "big play" that changes the course of the game.

If there is a human element then it is somewhat of a smear possibly based on some of the same irrelevant ideas that you mentioned above. But my understanding is that they primarily use data.

Correct. It is possible that some of the "previous success" bias hasn't worked its way out yet.


Sure. But what "game" does LSU have to bring to win? I'm going to be honest and say that UT's "B+" game beats LSU's A game right now. When you strip away the "cupcakes" then LSU has played 3 big opponents if you count Auburn. In those games, they've gained 345 ypg and allowed 373 ypg. UT has played two. In those games, the Vols have gained an average of 496 ypg and alllowed 504.... skewed by UF's late charge.

So can LSU's lackluster offense make hey against UT's D... and can they stop UT's O better than Pitt or UF has?

You guys who only look at UT in a vacuum always puzzle me.

Don’t always agree with you on everything but most things. And that summary was hammer meet nail! Great job. GBO!

 

[Doberman]

The Vegas line and the FPI don’t have diddly squat to do with each other.

 

[OrangeTsar]

There is no room for logic and reason on this board.

But there is a reason that the Planet Vulcan has never won a football championship
Logic will only take you so far. Gotta have emotion and passion to win

 

[PEPPERJAX]

I fully expect a close competitive matchup that is decided sometime in the 4th quarter. Would be surprised if either team lost by a large margin. I don't want to focus on just one game, but it is difficult not to. The QB for Auburn threw for 337 yards against LSU's defense while Jaydan Daniels only had 80 passing yards and he is going to be dealing with a sore knee when he plays us as well. Robby Ashford is nowhere near the caliber of QB Hendon is. With that being said, Daniels would have to suck on purpose to not throw for more than 80 yards against UT's secondary unless our D line is living in their back field all day. In games like this when it is expected to be close, you go with the team that has better QB play with Hendon leading the offense. GBO!