Josh Heupel, the Blue Chip Ratio and the 2022 Schedule

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Bud Elliot at 247 updated his annual blue chip ratio for 2022 this week.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2022: The 15 teams who can actually win a national title

You can find all of the particulars in the link above if you're interested. He addresses a lot of the common questions/criticisms people have in the article, and I'm less interested in discussing its' methodology than I am just looking at the teams on our schedule, based on historical patterns, that he calculates have a chance to win it all this year.

First, very briefly regarding methodology, Elliot defines "blue chips" as composite 5 star and 4 star players, and the "ratio" is the percentage of players on a roster that are former 5 stars and 4 stars. He analyzes historical patterns of who has won it all in the past and what percentage of blue chips that team had. Then he updates the list of teams every year that have a chance to win it all per the formula.

There are 15 teams this year:

Alabama- 89% blue chips
Ohio State- 80% blue chips
Georgia- 77% blue chips
Oklahoma- 71% blue chips
A&M- 70% blue chips
Texas- 68% blue chips
LSU- 66% blue chips
Clemson- 63% blue chips
Notre Dame- 62% blue chips
Florida- 60% blue chips
Oregon- 60% blue chips
Michigan- 59% blue chips
Penn State- 55% blue chips
Miami- 55% blue chips &
Auburn- 54% blue chips

That's the list for 2022, and it does not include the class that is being recruited now (2023) because they won't be on campus this fall. I am not sure what exactly our percentage is, but I did hear Elliot on ESPNU radio this week and he was asked about what teams were on the bubble to make the list and could make it next year, and he named about a half a dozen teams and we were one of them.

My main point though is, I've seen this narrative developing that people should be down on Heupel if we don't beat LSU or Florida or both. As you can see, LSU still has the 7th highest ratio in the country (66%) and Florida has the 10th (60%). This doesn't mean we CAN'T beat either team, I definitely think we CAN, however folks need to realize that the death of those two programs is being greatly exaggerated, they've both still got a ton of talent. I'd love to beat either or both. I know it gets frustrating waiting for us to re-arrive, but 2022 is still not a year, where I think it can be fairly said that we SHOULD beat either team. Understand, I'm not saying count it as a loss, I'm just saying if we went 8-4 and only lost to the 4 teams on this list, there is no way in hell anyone should be down on Josh Heupel or our football program. GBO.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

If we go 8-4 in year 2 with the mess Heupel inherited 1.5yrs ago, we should be throwing him a parade.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

I agree 100% with your conclusions. If we go 8-4 this year Vol fans should be thrilled at another step forward and Coach pulling us out of the ditch. Some folks have already forgotten that in the 2 years before Coach Hype got here we lost 8 (1st time EVER) and 7 games. That wasnt a decade ago...or even 5 years ago...we are 1 season removed from being the worst Tennessee football team in my 45 years of life...and THEN we lost the most talented and highest rated players to the portal AFTER those 2 debacles. 5star tackles, RB1 and RB2, 5star ILB, you name it, we lost it.

Some of yall folks thinking we BETTER win 8 or 9 games this year...or we BETTER challenge UGA for the East are delusional. You must be only casual football fans who do not understand we played all season with 65 or so scholarship players vs our opponents who ALL had the 85 man limit . Coach did an amazing job last year, and will again this year while landing a top 10 recruiting class....but the shelves are still bare right now. We DO NOT have an SEC 2 deep on offense and especially not on defense. We will not likely until at a minimum we get next years top 10 class on campus and hopefully snatch more good players from the portal and JUCOs.

Gonna have to be patient for a couple years guys. Nick Sabans midget arse could not win the East this year with this roster. UgA is still loaded on both sides of the ball...and on paper sadly Floriduh has much more takent than us also. Take a deep breath....enjoy the fireworks on offense again this season...and support our team and our Coach as we move 1 step closer to Championship Football here this season. GO VOLS!!!

 

[marcusluvsvols]

If we go 8-4 in year 2 with the mess Heupel inherited 1.5yrs ago, we should be throwing him a parade.

This. So much this.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

If we go 8-4 in year 2 with the mess Heupel inherited 1.5yrs ago, we should be throwing him a parade.

I agree. It will be a good year, some folks are very poorly informed about what LSU and Florida still have talent wise. We can beat them, but this isn't a situation where we will have any just cause to hate on Heupel if these 4 are our only losses.

 

[Eastknox865]

I agree. It will be a good year, some folks are very poorly informed about what LSU and Florida still have talent wise. We can beat them, but this isn't a situation where we will have any just cause to hate on Heupel if these 4 are our only losses.

I agree with this but it will matter how those losses happen. If Florida comes here and win 38-35 ok but if they roll into Neyland and blow us out 42-17 we have a problem

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I agree with this but it will matter how those losses happen. If Florida comes here and win 38-35 ok but if they roll into Neyland and blow us out 42-17 we have a problem

The other 11 games outcome would factor into the judgment of that game obviously, say we did lose to Florida that badly, I'm not going to flip out in week 4 about that. It may be UF ends up being pretty good, and goes 10-2 or something. It could be we had a lot of injuries or some fluke turnovers. I'm inclined to say though if we beat everyone else but these 4 regardless of margins, it's still going to be a step forward, not as big of one as we'd like maybe depending on those margins, but a step forward nonetheless. It's a long way from losing to Missouri 50-17 back to back years like we did not long ago, that's for sure.

 

[TnVol!]

What a great job our entire coaching staff has done so far. Keep up the great work guys and Go Volunteers!

 

[Defcon5]

Bud Elliot at 247 updated his annual blue chip ratio for 2022 this week.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2022: The 15 teams who can actually win a national title

You can find all of the particulars in the link above if your interested. He addresses a lot of the common questions/criticisms people have in the article, and I'm less interested in discussing its' methodology than I am just looking at the teams on our schedule, based on historical patterns, that he calculates have a chance to win it all this year.

First, very briefly regarding methodology, Elliot defines "blue chips" as composite 5 star and 4 star players, and the "ratio" is the percentage of players on a roster that are former 5 stars and 4 stars. He analyzes historical patterns of who has won it all in the past and what percentage of blue chips that team had. Then he updates the list of teams every year that have a chance to win it all per the formula.

There are 15 teams this year:

Alabama- 89% blue chips
Ohio State- 80% blue chips
Georgia- 77% blue chips
Oklahoma- 71% blue chips
A&M- 70% blue chips
Texas- 68% blue chips
LSU- 66% blue chips
Clemson- 63% blue chips
Notre Dame- 62% blue chips
Florida- 60% blue chips
Oregon- 60% blue chips
Michigan- 59% blue chips
Penn State- 55% blue chips
Miami- 55% blue chips &
Auburn- 54% blue chips

That's the list for 2022, and it does not include the class that is being recruited now (2023) because they won't be on campus this fall. I am not sure what exactly our percentage is, but I did hear Elliot on ESPNU radio this week and he was asked about what teams were on the bubble to make the list and could make it next year, and he named about a half a dozen teams and we were one of them.

My main point though is, I've seen this narrative developing that people should be down on Heupel if we don't beat LSU or Florida or both. As you can see, LSU still has the 7th highest ratio in the country (66%) and Florida has the 10th (60%). This doesn't mean we CAN'T beat either team, I definitely think we CAN, however folks need to realize that the death of those two programs is being greatly exaggerated, they've both still got a ton of talent. I'd love to beat either or both. I know it gets frustrating waiting for us to re-arrive, but 2022 is still not a year, where I think it can be fairly said that we SHOULD beat either team. Understand, I'm not saying count it as a loss, I'm just saying if we went 8-4 and only lost to the 4 teams on this list, there is no way in hell anyone should be down on Josh Heupel or our football program. GBO.

Don’t think anyone is down on Josh after only 1 year. No reason why TN with our great facilities & Top NIL money shouldn’t be a top ten program. Not to change the subject, if we’re going to be a super conference, here’s who I would like: OR, Cal, AZ St, OK St, Clem, FL St, Mia, NC. Your thoughts?

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Don’t think anyone is down on Josh after only 1 year. No reason why TN with our great facilities & Top NIL money shouldn’t be a top ten program. Not to change the subject, if we’re going to be a super conference, here’s who I would like: OR, Cal, AZ St, OK St, Clem, FL St, Mia, NC. Your thoughts?

No one too much is really down on him right now, I have seen the narrative cropping up that any coach worth his salt ought to win either or both of those two games though (LSU & UF) and I don't think that's the case yet.

I'd like to see the SEC stay somewhat regional. I'd like to pick 8 from FSU, Clem, GT, Miami, Okie St., Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, UNC, NCSt., Duke, Wake, etc.

 

[Defcon5]

Don’t think anyone is down on Josh after only 1 year. No reason why TN with our great facilities & Top NIL money shouldn’t be a top ten program. Not to change the subject, if we’re going to be a super conference, here’s who I would like: OR, Cal, AZ St, OK St, Clem, FL St, Mia, NC. Your thoughts?

Agree some of the above are not good geographically good fits, but tv markets are good, OR brings Seattle, AZ St brings Phoenix, NC brings whole state of North Carolina. SEC coast to coast.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

No one too much is really down on him right now, I have seen the narrative cropping up that any coach worth his salt ought to win either or both of those two games though (LSU & UF) and I don't think that's the case yet.

I'd like to see the SEC stay somewhat regional. I'd like to pick 8 from FSU, Clem, GT, Miami, Okie St., Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, UNC, NCSt., Duke, Wake, etc.

Losing to LSU and Florida means that the rebuild is either going to take much longer or foreshadow that we will continue to be behind UGA and Florida in the east in the foreseeable future.

Also, if we lose to both of them we better hope and pray that we have beaten Pitt.

If we don't win any of those three games we start the year 2-4 and a whole lot of pressure to beat Uk, Mizzou, USCjr and Vandy. They all become must wins. 7-5 or worse will show us that Heupel was unable to improve from year one to year two with 90% of your team back and one of the best QB's, WR's and offenses in the country.

8-4 with the losses being to UGA, AL, FL and LSU is the bare minimum for success.

Now it will feel better if magically LSU and Florida are really good. I'm sure Florida will play their best game of the season per freaking usual, but sorry, no excuses its time for a coach to take us to the next level and win some of these tougher games like we did for the first 100+ years of our existence.

 

[NCFisher]

I won't be throwing parades at 8-4 but won't be tossing Heup under the bus either. Beating one of those four teams certainly make the sales pitch easier. 9-3 is bigger is a bigger step up from 8-4 than one loss implies. You're 15-20 national rankings with 9-3, unranked at 8-4. No one cares about a #26 ranking.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Losing to LSU and Florida means that the rebuild is either going to take much longer or foreshadow that we will continue to be behind UGA and Florida in the east in the foreseeable future.

Also, if we lose to both of them we better hope and pray that we have beaten Pitt.

If we don't win any of those three games we start the year 2-4 and a whole lot of pressure to beat Uk, Mizzou, USCjr and Vandy. They all become must wins. 7-5 or worse will show us that Heupel was unable to improve from year one to year two with 90% of your team back and one of the best QB's, WR's and offenses in the country.

8-4 with the losses being to UGA, AL, FL and LSU is the bare minimum for success.

Now it will feel better if magically LSU and Florida are really good. I'm sure Florida will play their best game of the season per freaking usual, but sorry, no excuses its time for a coach to take us to the next level and win some of these tougher games like we did for the first 100+ years of our existence.

You're impatient for us to return to what we used to be, I get that, but the reality is Florida and LSU both still have significantly more talented rosters than we do. No amount of wishing or ultimatum setting will change that. If we beat everyone but those 4 teams we will have a strong indicator that we have a coach who can beat teams of equal or lesser talent which is way better than we have been. We will simply have to acquire more talent and keep building the program, much like Majors did, not start over. We are 80-81 overall since we fired Fulmer the first time, good for 68th in FBS. Establishing ourselves consistently as no worse than the 3rd best team in the east is a necessary step forward, not backward.

 

[Rocky Top T]

8 wins this year would be very good!!! Heupel inherited a mess! Truth!!!

 

[Vol423]

Losing to LSU and Florida means that the rebuild is either going to take much longer or foreshadow that we will continue to be behind UGA and Florida in the east in the foreseeable future.

Also, if we lose to both of them we better hope and pray that we have beaten Pitt.

If we don't win any of those three games we start the year 2-4 and a whole lot of pressure to beat Uk, Mizzou, USCjr and Vandy. They all become must wins. 7-5 or worse will show us that Heupel was unable to improve from year one to year two with 90% of your team back and one of the best QB's, WR's and offenses in the country.

8-4 with the losses being to UGA, AL, FL and LSU is the bare minimum for success.

Now it will feel better if magically LSU and Florida are really good. I'm sure Florida will play their best game of the season per freaking usual, but sorry, no excuses its time for a coach to take us to the next level and win some of these tougher games like we did for the first 100+ years of our existence.

I'm absolutely mystified by ANYONE claiming that we have one of the best WR units in the country this year. We'll put up solid passing/receiving yards this season because Heupel is so good at scheming to get receivers wide open. However, our WR corp is nowhere near being one of the most talented WR corps in the country.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

I'm absolutely mystified by ANYONE claiming that we have one of the best WR units in the country this year. We'll put up solid passing/receiving yards this season because Heupel is so good at scheming to get receivers wide open. However, our WR corp is nowhere near being one of the most talented WR corps in the country.

Well stop being mystified and use your reading comprehension skills.

I said we have one of the best QB's Wr's and offenses in the country.

Hendon Hooker = one of the best QB's in the nation.

Cedric Tillman = one of the best WR's (that means one SINGULAR wide receiver) in the nation.

Offense = one of the best in the nation.

I will say it's pretty crazy to outright scoff at the idea that our WR core as a whole is "nowhere near" one of the best in the nation. What does nowhere near mean? Like not top five or top ten? Outside of who like Bama and the other blue chip ridden juggernaut teams we have quite a bit of talent in that room. Just largely unproven. Still, outside of Tillman we have a former five star, six four stars and the rest very high three stars. It's top 25 TALENT at worst.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

You're impatient for us to return to what we used to be, I get that, but the reality is Florida and LSU both still have significantly more talented rosters than we do. No amount of wishing or ultimatum setting will change that. If we beat everyone but those 4 teams we will have a strong indicator that we have a coach who can beat teams of equal or lesser talent which is way better than we have been. We will simply have to acquire more talent and keep building the program, not start over. We are 80-81 overall since we fired Fulmer the first time, good for 68th in FBS. Establishing ourselves consistently as no worse than the 3rd best team in the east is a necessary step forward, not backward.

No they don't. You know that blue chip ratio thing right? We sit right on the cut line for that thing and are one elite class from getting there.

Last year in the team talent composite we were 19th while Florida and LSU were 7th and 5th respectively. Thays hardly that significant. They've had a lot of turnover. New coaches. We have more talent, more experience, more continuity and when the new composite comes out we will likely be higher and they will be lower.

And look, if Ole Miss and Arkansas can win games like that in year 2 with Kiffin and Pittman there is absolutely no reason we should settle for less.

Ya know where Arkansas and Ole Miss were in the talent composite? 27th and 28th. During our stretch of crap football we haven't had a roster that bad.

The composite didn't exist prior to 2015, so I'm not sure about the Dooley era, but I know for sure his classes were in the top 20 so I doubt you'd find one of his rosters being close to 27th or 28th.

Here's our talent ranking since 2015.

2015 12th
2016 14th
2017 12th
2018 15th
2019 16th
2020 15th
2021 19th

Ole Miss was 29th in 2020 when in Kiffins first year they went aaaall the way to the wire against Bama.

The talent disparity is a garbage excuse. We've seen countless less talented teams perform far better than we have and Heupel doesn't get an excuse this year. Go beat some actual good teams that aren't KY.

 

[orangemadam]

8-4 is absolute minimum for the program this year.

Much more favorable schedule, more experience, NCAA investigation shadow dimming.

7-5 is not progress for this staff regardless of the % referenced above. If measuring this season only, then compare the percentages of the 2-deep roster, ours is very competitive (other than Ala and GA).

 

[sjt18]

UT should beat UF this year. We all know that's been the case in previous years and the Vols still found a way to lose. But this UT team should beat that UF team.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

UT should beat UF this year. We all know that's been the case in previous years and the Vols still found a way to lose. But this UT team should beat that UF team.

Yeah time for us to go into that game. Play our faces off, execute and don't do anything stupid. No more fluke bs. Win a game you're favored to win. Win a toss up game at home.

Rewatched the 2016 Florida game the other week. We still did everything possible to lose that game. There were like five awful drops. Dobbs was throwing into triple coverage. Looked like they had never practiced before. Luckily we decided to actually play well for a half.

 

[sjt18]

Yeah time for us to go into that game. Play our faces off, execute and don't do anything stupid. No more fluke bs. Win a game you're favored to win. Win a toss up game at home.

Rewatched the 2016 Florida game the other week. We still did everything possible to lose that game. There were like five awful drops. Dobbs was throwing into triple coverage. Looked like they had never practiced before. Luckily we decided to actually play well for a half.

Jones' complete mismanagement of the game other game was maddening.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

No they don't. You know that blue chip ratio thing right? We sit right on the cut line for that thing and are one elite class from getting there.

Last year in the team talent composite we were 19th while Florida and LSU were 7th and 5th respectively. Thays hardly that significant. They've had a lot of turnover. New coaches. We have more talent, more experience, more continuity and when the new composite comes out we will likely be higher and they will be lower.

And look, if Ole Miss and Arkansas can win games like that in year 2 with Kiffin and Pittman there is absolutely no reason we should settle for less.

Ya know where Arkansas and Ole Miss were in the talent composite? 27th and 28th. During our stretch of crap football we haven't had a roster that bad.

The composite didn't exist prior to 2015, so I'm not sure about the Dooley era, but I know for sure his classes were in the top 20 so I doubt you'd find one of his rosters being close to 27th or 28th.

Here's our talent ranking since 2015.

2015 12th
2016 14th
2017 12th
2018 15th
2019 16th
2020 15th
2021 19th

Ole Miss was 29th in 2020 when in Kiffins first year they went aaaall the way to the wire against Bama.

The talent disparity is a garbage excuse. We've seen countless less talented teams perform far better than we have and Heupel doesn't get an excuse this year. Go beat some actual good teams that aren't KY.

This is hilarious, in one breath you argue that the talent composite ranking disparity between 5th and 19th is insignificant, and in the next breath you argue that 28th or 29th is way worse than 19th. I get it though, you won't settle for less than Heupel turning water into wine and stone into bread. Hopefully, this fall is a veritable wedding at Cana for you guys though because if we go 8-4 as described and start clamoring to hit the reset button on coaching yet again, I'll start to finally believe we are destined to remain in a football purgatory of our own making indefinitely.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

This is hilarious, in one breath you argue that the talent composite ranking disparity between 5th and 19th is insignificant, and in the next breath you argue that 28th or 29th is way worse than 19th. I get it though, you won't settle for less than Heupel turning water into wine and stone into bread. Hopefully, this fall is a veritable wedding at Cana for you guys though because if we go 8-4 as described and start clamoring to hit the reset button on coaching yet again, I'll start to finally believe we are destined to remain in a football purgatory of our own making indefinitely.

Uhh no

I'm saying if they can compete and beat good teams eith the 27th and 28th ranked rosters we have no excuses.

And I'm fine with 8-4. But if it's 8-4 without a win over Florida (unless we beat Bama or UGA) its going to make it very difficult to ever compete for an SEC title.

Think about how detrimental a loss to them would be. Right now we are ahead of them. We are expected to be better. Competing for second in the east. We lose to them this year and we speed up their rebuild tremendously. They get a win in packed Neyland against a nationally ranked Tennessee on national TV. Their recruiting and confidence all skyrocket. Then we have to go to Gainesville in 2023. If Heupel can't beat Napier in Knoxville in Napiers first year is he beating them in 2023? No. So we go into 2024. Florida is probably rolling and they've beaten us and been ahead of us in the east standings for two years. Do we beat them in 24 with Nico? Maybe. But that's after we spotted them two W's confidence, and guaranteed great recruiting classes.

I'm also not saying we should fire Heupel in that event. But I question the ceiling with him if he can't beat Florida this year. We already have two automatic losses on the schedule. If we add a third then that puts so much pressure on every other game and flirting dangerously with mediocrity.

Beating Florida is absolutely huge.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

This list re-emphasizes the stark reality.... Beating Florida, Georgia & Alabama in the same season and then winning the SEC title game will require Tennessee being the best team in the nation.