Is the economy sound, or not?

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
The stock market has recovered well. A China trade deal would likely push it even higher.

But today car loan delinquencies are at record levels.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/business/delinquent-car-loans/index.html

The article explains that there are more car loans now than before, so that explains some of it. On the other hand, that is in part because banks are lending again to higher risk customers. We have seen that movie before!

So is the economy good, bad, ugly? I think it is mostly just uneven. The middle and the top are doing better. The top of the top, in particular, is benefiting enormously. The lower middle class and the poor, however, continue to take a beating it seems.
 
#3
#3
lawgator1 said:
The stock market has recovered well. A China trade deal would likely push it even higher.

But today car loan delinquencies are at record levels.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/business/delinquent-car-loans/index.html

The article explains that there are more car loans now than before, so that explains some of it. On the other hand, that is in part because banks are lending again to higher risk customers. We have seen that movie before!

So is the economy good, bad, ugly? I think it is mostly just uneven. The middle and the top are doing better. The top of the top, in particular, is benefiting enormously. The lower middle class and the poor, however, continue to take a beating it seems.
Click to expand...
Looking for another cloud on a sunny day, LG?
 
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#5
#5
From the article:

the rate of delinquency is not at record levels; it's the number --- there are more loans out there now than ever before.

the amount borrowed is higher (higher payments).
 
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#6
#6
lawgator1 said:
The stock market has recovered well. A China trade deal would likely push it even higher.

But today car loan delinquencies are at record levels.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/business/delinquent-car-loans/index.html

The article explains that there are more car loans now than before, so that explains some of it. On the other hand, that is in part because banks are lending again to higher risk customers. We have seen that movie before!

So is the economy good, bad, ugly? I think it is mostly just uneven. The middle and the top are doing better. The top of the top, in particular, is benefiting enormously. The lower middle class and the poor, however, continue to take a beating it seems.
Click to expand...

The question on this is whether or not such behavior is being actively encouraged as it was under Clinton and Bush 43 with the housing market. At the moment, there is no Federal loan program for vehicles that I'm aware of. So, financial institutions are taking this risk on themselves. Plus, car companies (Ford in particular) aren't doing themselves any favors by having historically high prices on some models of vehicles.

I'd tend to think the car market is set for another correction much like the real estate market did. However, I don't think it'll be as bad as the collapse back then.
 
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#9
#9
I think this article does a better job of painting the actual issue. My biggest take always: credit scores are higher and the percentage of debt owed by people with good credit is higher then in the past. Also to note, the number of credit inquiries is at an all time low bc refinancing is at an all time low. Those are very good things.

Now if a a car “bubble” does exist it would be one tenth the problem of the last housing bubble. Not great but major financial institutions aren’t going to crumble bc of it.


A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
 
#10
#10
volfanhill said:
I think this article does a better job of painting the actual issue. My biggest take always: credit scores are higher and the percentage of debt owed by people with good credit is higher then in the past. Also to note, the number of credit inquiries is at an all time low bc refinancing is at an all time low. Those are very good things.

Now if a a car “bubble” does exist it would be one tenth the problem of the last housing bubble. Not great but major financial institutions aren’t going to crumble bc of it.


A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
Click to expand...
Refi’s are low because rates are up.
 
#11
#11
volfanhill said:
I think this article does a better job of painting the actual issue. My biggest take always: credit scores are higher and the percentage of debt owed by people with good credit is higher then in the past. Also to note, the number of credit inquiries is at an all time low bc refinancing is at an all time low. Those are very good things.

Now if a a car “bubble” does exist it would be one tenth the problem of the last housing bubble. Not great but major financial institutions aren’t going to crumble bc of it.


A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
Click to expand...

The price of vehicles have become ridiculous.. People financing 35k for a car or 50k for a truck.. I can see this being a substantial bubble.
 
#12
#12
DancingOutlaw said:
Refi’s are low because rates are up.
Click to expand...
That is very true. But many time when people are struggling they refi their home to consolidate debt. Stupid I know. However, this isn’t the first time in our history that rates have increased, but it is the lowest amount of refi’s ever according to the article I linked.
 
#13
#13
volfanhill said:
I think this article does a better job of painting the actual issue. My biggest take always: credit scores are higher and the percentage of debt owed by people with good credit is higher then in the past. Also to note, the number of credit inquiries is at an all time low bc refinancing is at an all time low. Those are very good things.

Now if a a car “bubble” does exist it would be one tenth the problem of the last housing bubble. Not great but major financial institutions aren’t going to crumble bc of it.


A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
Click to expand...
90 days behind! Heck, I've been paying mine every month. I'm skipping the next couple and going to the beach!
 
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#17
#17
Stew Cook said:
The price of vehicles have become ridiculous.. People financing 35k for a car or 50k for a truck.. I can see this being a substantial bubble.
Click to expand...

I am not saying it won’t be problematic, however it’s not nearly as big of a danger as the housing bubble. Major financial institutions will not be nearly as crippled as they were for the housing bubble. Their exposure is far far less. People losing cars and homes is never good. Major financial institutions going belly up sends you into a economic abyss.
 
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#18
#18
lawgator1 said:
The stock market has recovered well. A China trade deal would likely push it even higher.

But today car loan delinquencies are at record levels.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/business/delinquent-car-loans/index.html

The article explains that there are more car loans now than before, so that explains some of it. On the other hand, that is in part because banks are lending again to higher risk customers. We have seen that movie before!

So is the economy good, bad, ugly? I think it is mostly just uneven. The middle and the top are doing better. The top of the top, in particular, is benefiting enormously. The lower middle class and the poor, however, continue to take a beating it seems.
Click to expand...
Tell us LG, who is higher risk customers?
 
#19
#19
lawgator1 said:
The stock market has recovered well. A China trade deal would likely push it even higher.

But today car loan delinquencies are at record levels.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/13/business/delinquent-car-loans/index.html

The article explains that there are more car loans now than before, so that explains some of it. On the other hand, that is in part because banks are lending again to higher risk customers. We have seen that movie before!

So is the economy good, bad, ugly? I think it is mostly just uneven. The middle and the top are doing better. The top of the top, in particular, is benefiting enormously. The lower middle class and the poor, however, continue to take a beating it seems.
Click to expand...

So now you’re an economist? Unemployment at record lows and the labor participation rate has increased exponentially under Trump, not to mention lower gasoline prices and a huge surge n manufacturing jobs that your boy Obama said we’re never coming back. The economic outlook is good despite the repeated obstruction from your party, Mueller report is a huge nothing burger as I’ve maintained all along and Trump will be re-elected. Take my advice counselor, take a deep breath and relax, we survived eight years of a subpar economy under Hussein and now allmost all of his job killing regulations have been overturned which is evident when you look at the numbers. It looks Trump has a magic wand after all. 👍
 
#20
#20
Obsessed said:
Thanks to the federal regulations...
Click to expand...
Ya know.. I like the safety features and gadgets and all, but I prefer used vehicles. It's nice to have an idea of the reliability and long-term maintenance cost. Plus, vehicle repair is a form of exercise for me, if not virtual yoga.

I'm not really blaming anyone, just that poor decisions all around contribute to this problem.
 
#21
#21
FLVOL69 said:
So now you’re an economist? Unemployment at record lows and the labor participation rate has increased exponentially under Trump, not to mention lower gasoline prices and a huge surge n manufacturing jobs that your boy Obama said we’re never coming back. The economic outlook is good despite the repeated obstruction from your party, Mueller report is a huge nothing burger as I’ve maintained all along and Trump will be re-elected. Take my advice counselor, take a deep breath and relax, we survived eight years of a subpar economy under Hussein and now allmost all of his job killing regulations have been overturned which is evident when you look at the numbers. It looks Trump has a magic wand after all. 👍
Click to expand...

@lawgator1 is all kinds of talented.
 
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#22
#22
volinbham said:
Historic low unemployment, wage growth after a decade of stagnant wages, GDP at 3%, strong earnings, low inflation,...

The economy is good
Click to expand...

Feel like giving a prediction or your projection? I will not argue with your opinion because this is right up your alley.
 
#23
#23
FLVOL69 said:
So now you’re an economist? Unemployment at record lows and the labor participation rate has increased exponentially under Trump, not to mention lower gasoline prices and a huge surge n manufacturing jobs that your boy Obama said we’re never coming back. The economic outlook is good despite the repeated obstruction from your party, Mueller report is a huge nothing burger as I’ve maintained all along and Trump will be re-elected. Take my advice counselor, take a deep breath and relax, we survived eight years of a subpar economy under Hussein and now allmost all of his job killing regulations have been overturned which is evident when you look at the numbers. It looks Trump has a magic wand after all. 👍
Click to expand...


Well, doesn't this in part depend on whether you are taking a global look at it, versus whether you are looking at it from ground level? If the latter, "how the economy is doing" is dependent entirely on where you are in it.
 
#24
#24
lawgator1 said:
Well, doesn't this in part depend on whether you are taking a global look at it, versus whether you are looking at it from ground level? If the latter, "how the economy is doing" is dependent entirely on where you are in it.
Click to expand...
Or if you are hoping for something bad for America because , muh Trump!
 
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