Houston Vol
My 2nd son is a Longhorn
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2009
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Following UT's last disheartening loss (Auburn), I posted a series of threads entitled "Is Kiffin Failing? - How to Tell," in which I proposed:
1) Kiffin was hired not as a short term fix, but to build a foundation for success at the highest level.
2) That foundation is completely based on recruiting.
3) Average the star ratings (not the class rankings) from Rivals and Scout by year and you will note that, for the last 6-7 years, 3 schools consistently rank among or above the top tier in average recruit star rating. These schools are USC, Florida and Texas.
4) The Kiffin/Orgeron plan is to recruit to the level achieved by these programs.
5) Looking at the on-field success of these 3 schools, I concluded that if you have differentiating talent (talent notably better than everybody but USC/Tex/Fla) then other factors such as coaching and player development fall out of the equation. You win big regardless because talent will carry the day. NOTE: If you have that level of talent you probably are a good enough program to hire good coaches too, so probably a moot point.
6) So the bottom line was - Check to see if we are recruiting to the level of these schools. If we are, start talking trash and booking tickets to BCS bowl games.
I finished by noting that tentative 2010 numbers showed Tennessee's class was not yet up to par. Updated numbers below show little change since the Auburn game:
USC 3.90
Texas 3.90
Florida 3.81
UT 3.57
Our recruiting gurus would rightly point out that this is still subject to change as UT has lots of 4-star prospects on the line.
Some readers enjoyed this somewhat simplistic analysis, while others could not accept ignoring gameday coaching and player development. I thought my argument was strengthened by recalling those Florida St and Miami teams of the past that were so stocked with talent.
So being my analytical self, I armed myself with more data:
1) I went further back in time on the recruiting rankings. Rivals and Scout only go back to 2002, but I found Superprep and Lemming class ratings from 1992-2001.
2) Instead of limiting myself to the recent Texas/USC/Florida recruiting dominance, I looked through the entire 1992-2008 period for teams that landed ~ top 5 classes.
3) I used 4 trusted computer rankings (averaged) to compare these classes to subsequent on-field results.
4) The method I used was to compare the SO/JR/SR classes to the final ranking in the computer polls. I threw out the frosh since they don't typically have a major impact and the redshirt seniors are fewer in numbers these days and your best players never make it that far. So, for example, the 2008 on-field results are compared to the 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes.
RESULTS:
Using the classes of 1992-2009, I can look at on-field results for 1995-2009. In that 15 year period, I find 50 teams that meet my criteria for differentiating talent. This typically means everybody on campus was part of a top 5 class. Of these 50 teams,
- 49/50 finished the year in the top 20
- 21/50 finished the year in the top 5
The only team with top talent that has ever not been one of the top 20 teams in the country is the 2006 Miami Hurricanes. This was the infamous Miami team that brawled onfield with Florida International and got Larry Coker fired.
I had to broaden the aperature a bit to do this analysis. Not many teams have had a run of recruiting success like USC, Florida and Texas have had over the last few years. But the results are clear.
Coaching smoaching. You recruit like crazy and you win. Just watch out for Florida International. :mega_shok:
1) Kiffin was hired not as a short term fix, but to build a foundation for success at the highest level.
2) That foundation is completely based on recruiting.
3) Average the star ratings (not the class rankings) from Rivals and Scout by year and you will note that, for the last 6-7 years, 3 schools consistently rank among or above the top tier in average recruit star rating. These schools are USC, Florida and Texas.
4) The Kiffin/Orgeron plan is to recruit to the level achieved by these programs.
5) Looking at the on-field success of these 3 schools, I concluded that if you have differentiating talent (talent notably better than everybody but USC/Tex/Fla) then other factors such as coaching and player development fall out of the equation. You win big regardless because talent will carry the day. NOTE: If you have that level of talent you probably are a good enough program to hire good coaches too, so probably a moot point.
6) So the bottom line was - Check to see if we are recruiting to the level of these schools. If we are, start talking trash and booking tickets to BCS bowl games.
I finished by noting that tentative 2010 numbers showed Tennessee's class was not yet up to par. Updated numbers below show little change since the Auburn game:
USC 3.90
Texas 3.90
Florida 3.81
UT 3.57
Our recruiting gurus would rightly point out that this is still subject to change as UT has lots of 4-star prospects on the line.
Some readers enjoyed this somewhat simplistic analysis, while others could not accept ignoring gameday coaching and player development. I thought my argument was strengthened by recalling those Florida St and Miami teams of the past that were so stocked with talent.
So being my analytical self, I armed myself with more data:
1) I went further back in time on the recruiting rankings. Rivals and Scout only go back to 2002, but I found Superprep and Lemming class ratings from 1992-2001.
2) Instead of limiting myself to the recent Texas/USC/Florida recruiting dominance, I looked through the entire 1992-2008 period for teams that landed ~ top 5 classes.
3) I used 4 trusted computer rankings (averaged) to compare these classes to subsequent on-field results.
4) The method I used was to compare the SO/JR/SR classes to the final ranking in the computer polls. I threw out the frosh since they don't typically have a major impact and the redshirt seniors are fewer in numbers these days and your best players never make it that far. So, for example, the 2008 on-field results are compared to the 2005, 2006, and 2007 classes.
RESULTS:
Using the classes of 1992-2009, I can look at on-field results for 1995-2009. In that 15 year period, I find 50 teams that meet my criteria for differentiating talent. This typically means everybody on campus was part of a top 5 class. Of these 50 teams,
- 49/50 finished the year in the top 20
- 21/50 finished the year in the top 5
The only team with top talent that has ever not been one of the top 20 teams in the country is the 2006 Miami Hurricanes. This was the infamous Miami team that brawled onfield with Florida International and got Larry Coker fired.
I had to broaden the aperature a bit to do this analysis. Not many teams have had a run of recruiting success like USC, Florida and Texas have had over the last few years. But the results are clear.
Coaching smoaching. You recruit like crazy and you win. Just watch out for Florida International. :mega_shok:
