Is KC really a first round pick?

[TNBV]

I see what you are saying, but my question would be this - If a player like KC leaves and gets drafted late 1st round (20-25), would that be a smarter move than staying and improving your stock to be top 10 pick?
I'm referring to the financial risk of waiting a year to get a potential top 10 NBA contract.

I guess the real money question is do you think you can sign a big second contract. If you do then going pro at 19 gets one more year under the "real" money contract. So even though you may make a little more by increasing your draft status, you are putting off your 2nd contract by another year, which if you become an NBA starter would be much more than even a 6th pick.

 

[b_gann]

I know the NBA often drafts on potential rather than production, but does Kennedy Chandler really project as a first round pick? His shooting and court awareness don’t seem to be strengths at the moment. Is the NBA as willing to spend a first round pick on 6’0” player that hasn’t really accomplished anything and may take years to develop? This is not meant to be a criticism because he’s a very good player, especially for a freshman.

If Springer and Keon still went 1st, I'll say yes

 

[VolunteerCeltic]

I say let him go, the NBA isn't for the faint of heart for those who are not prepared for it. KC has athletic ability for sure, has some high level skills but his biggest problem is between the ears. Makes poor decisions and his confidence seems to be shot. If he came here to be one and done, then let him go. Out best PG is coming off the bench at this time.

 

[VolGee4]

I see what you are saying, but my question would be this - If a player like KC leaves and gets drafted late 1st round (20-25), would that be a smarter move than staying and improving your stock to be top 10 pick?
I'm referring to the financial risk of waiting a year to get a potential top 10 NBA contract.

I don’t think KC will ever be a top 10 pick based on his size. So your analysis is the difference in money between maybe 10-17 and 20-25. The money is not that much to risk it if he gets a first round guarantee. A 6 figure NIL deal could change that analysis a bit.

 

[savannahfan]

If his grades are good enough (and I have no idea) I think he will needs one more year and will be expected to take one more year to mature in the eyes of the evaluators of the NBA. If not and someone makes the commitment to him, who would it be? What team has the luxury of having a project at the guard position?

 

[Vols8086]

If his grades are good enough (and I have no idea) I think he will needs one more year and will be expected to take one more year to mature in the eyes of the evaluators of the NBA. If not and someone makes the commitment to him, who would it be? What team has the luxury of having a project at the guard position?

The NBA drafts on potential and upside. Most of your first round picks are projects in that sense.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Yes, NBA teams will see the offensive system currently being run at UT is not utilizing his skillset properly. KC will be a good P-n-R PG at the next level. A team that needs a PG and runs a lot of P-n-R looks will take a chance on him somewhere in the mid to late first round.

(With Tyus Jones being a free agent this year, the Memphis Grizzlies might take KC with one of their 3 first round picks since they run a lot of P-n-R with Ja Morant and Tyus Jones. Given that Ja will be getting max money soon, the Grizz will need to find/develop a cheap backup for Ja)

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

If his grades are good enough (and I have no idea) I think he will needs one more year and will be expected to take one more year to mature in the eyes of the evaluators of the NBA. If not and someone makes the commitment to him, who would it be? What team has the luxury of having a project at the guard position?

The NBA team about 120 miles west of you makes a ton of sense for KC.....They will need a cheap backup for Ja since Tyus Jones is likely gone after this season. They run a lot of Pick N Roll, which is better suited for KC's game. KC is close with Ja Morant. KC would get to develop at his own pace without being thrown into the fray. The Grizzlies have 3 picks in the later part of the first round.

 

[K-town Vol Fan]

Each of them are making over 2 million dollars this year and are guaranteed 8-10 million more through their rookie contract. They are getting paid massively to polish their game. Why on Earth would they have needed to stay here and do that? The earlier you leave, the faster you get to the second contract.

Some people can't separate their fandom from reality. They can't accept that they are more emotionally invested in UT than the actual players, who are trying to play a sport for a career. See it every day on here.

KC is gone, as he should be.

 

[DERELICK_MY_VOLS]

Ready no gone yes.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

It doesn't hurt that many see this as an overall weak draft class, so it helps him with getting drafted in the 1st. I'm not going to shut the door entirely on him returning, but I think he'd really have to muck it up on the court the next few weeks to make that scenario a reality.

I'd much prefer he figure out what he is doing wrong, fix it, and lead us to an Elite 8 and leave than have this season be yet another disappointment and then have him return with yet another "next year will be our year" mentality.

Let's go on a nice run here and send him off in style.

 

[LibertyVol]

It seems our fans have a very unrealistic idea of what playing in college does for a future pro. Saying someone who is a first rounder should stay to "develop their game" shows an absolute misconception as to what makes a player a better pro. If you take twins (identical talent and skills) and put one in college and the other in the NBA G league or a bench player practicing everyday with pros, I guarantee you the pro one will be much more NBA ready. Staying in college works if you think hard work can overcome what the pros already think about your potential (i.e. prove them wrong about your ability to guard elite talent). It does not make someone with elite talent more ready for the NBA than the NBA could do in that same year.

What you are saying makes good sense. I might take it a step further and say it might make sense to leave if you get drafted at all.

 

[GrayWaterCanine]

i wish he would stay one more year and develop in Knoxville.

He is more likely to transfer than play in Knoxville if he does not go to the NBA. He made a serious mistake in his college choice.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I see what you are saying, but my question would be this - If a player like KC leaves and gets drafted late 1st round (20-25), would that be a smarter move than staying and improving your stock to be top 10 pick?
I'm referring to the financial risk of waiting a year to get a potential top 10 NBA contract.

Let's say KC goes 20 this year. Over the next 3 years, he will make $7MM (2.2, 2.3, 2.5). If he goes back to school and gets drafted 10, he will make $7.5MM the next 3 years (0, 3.6M, 3.9M). He will be one year closer to his second contract. He will learn more about running a NBA offense being on a NBA team than being on a college team.

For him to get into the Top 10 as a sophmore, he would have to have usage that no Barnes player has had since Kevin Durant. He would absolutely have to ball out in Y2 to make up for the lost year of "potential" in the NBA's eyes. Considering the offensive issues, ZZ taking minutes away, and UT's offense not being run by most pro teams, it really makes no sense from a financial perspective to come back to school if you have a guarantee in the Top 20.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Let's say KC goes 20 this year. Over the next 3 years, he will make $7MM (2.2, 2.3, 2.5). If he goes back to school and gets drafted 10, he will make $7.5MM the next 3 years (0, 3.6M, 3.9M). He will be one year closer to his second contract. He will learn more about running a NBA offense being on a NBA team than being on a college team.

For him to get into the Top 10 as a sophmore, he would have to have usage that no Barnes player has had since Kevin Durant. He would absolutely have to ball out in Y2 to make up for the lost year of "potential" in the NBA's eyes. Considering the offensive issues, ZZ taking minutes away, and UT's offense not being run by most pro teams, it really makes no sense from a financial perspective to come back to school if you have a guarantee in the Top 20.

What about pick 26 like most recent mock had him going? What would you say is break even point where he should consider returning, 2nd round?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

What about pick 26 like most recent mock had him going? What would you say is break even point where he should consider returning, 2nd round?

If he doesn't get a first round guarantee, I'd consider coming back. The goal in the NBA $$$ wise is to get to the 2nd contract. As someone who is a little smaller and probably won't "Wow" with athleticism, I don't see how he would go from 26 to Top 10. For him to make up that difference, he'd have to absolutely kill it next year. I don't see him making that Ja Morant type leap between his freshman and soph. years to justify moving up 15-20 spots since he doesn't have that type of athleticism.

Other factors: Who is giving you the guarantee? Let's say, its Phoenix or Utah. That might be a good spot since Chris Paul/Mike Conley is probably close to retirement in 3 years and you have multiple good players around you already. If its Memphis, he likely would never get any significant playing time to justify a huge second contract unless Ja Morant is hurt.

I don't see him getting the usage (Especially with ZZ in the fold) to shoot up the draft boards if he comes back. This isn't a dig on Barnes's offense but its far different than what he would run in the NBA.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

If he doesn't get a first round guarantee, I'd consider coming back. The goal in the NBA $$$ wise is to get to the 2nd contract. As someone who is a little smaller and probably won't "Wow" with athleticism, I don't see how he would go from 26 to Top 10. For him to make up that difference, he'd have to absolutely kill it next year. I don't see him making that Ja Morant type leap between his freshman and soph. years to justify moving up 15-20 spots since he doesn't have that type of athleticism.

Other factors: Who is giving you the guarantee? Let's say, its Phoenix or Utah. That might be a good spot since Chris Paul/Mike Conley is probably close to retirement in 3 years and you have multiple good players around you already. If its Memphis, he likely would never get any significant playing time to justify a huge second contract unless Ja Morant is hurt.

I don't see him getting the usage (Especially with ZZ in the fold) to shoot up the draft boards if he comes back. This isn't a dig on Barnes's offense but its far different than what he would run in the NBA.

Makes total sense and appreciate the response, will be interesting to watch play out as there really seems to be a wide contrast in what folks think about him.

 

[The Dog]

Makes total sense and appreciate the response, will be interesting to watch play out as there really seems to be a wide contrast in what folks think about him.

Are you already counting your money ? Because that $1000 bet is looking like a stone cold 🔒, right now. You took over the 15th pick, correct ?

 

[LeannaVol]

If he doesn't get a first round guarantee, I'd consider coming back. The goal in the NBA $$$ wise is to get to the 2nd contract. As someone who is a little smaller and probably won't "Wow" with athleticism, I don't see how he would go from 26 to Top 10. For him to make up that difference, he'd have to absolutely kill it next year. I don't see him making that Ja Morant type leap between his freshman and soph. years to justify moving up 15-20 spots since he doesn't have that type of athleticism.

Other factors: Who is giving you the guarantee? Let's say, its Phoenix or Utah. That might be a good spot since Chris Paul/Mike Conley is probably close to retirement in 3 years and you have multiple good players around you already. If its Memphis, he likely would never get any significant playing time to justify a huge second contract unless Ja Morant is hurt.

I don't see him getting the usage (Especially with ZZ in the fold) to shoot up the draft boards if he comes back. This isn't a dig on Barnes's offense but its far different than what he would run in the NBA.

The other consideration is he could continue to under perform relative to his high school accolades and fall completely out of the draft. JJJ would have probably been drafted after his freshman or sophomore season. Now, it seems unlikely unless he is able to show a more consistent 3 point shot. BTW I am not taking a shot at JJJ. He remains one of my favorite players for all he does.

 

[ShowSomePride]

Also a really weak PG class this year it seems. Might not be the case next year.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Are you already counting your money ? Because that $1000 bet is looking like a stone cold 🔒, right now. You took over the 15th pick, correct ?

Yea, over 15 iirc…not counting anything, a solid stretch of games or NCAAT run and he will make a move

 

[The Dog]

Yea, over 15 iirc…not counting anything, a solid stretch of games or NCAAT run and he will make a move

Come on bTo, you always remember correctly

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Come on bTo, you always remember correctly

Can’t remember if 15 he won/I won or push

 

[The Dog]

Can’t remember if 15 he won/I won or push

Well, I think, if he is 16th or later, you win, but you know how my short term memory is

 

[hUTch2002]

No doubt he probably will but I’ve seen plenty of players stay for another year if they were not lottery too. The NIL money might make players stay for another year to get a better draft grade im tired of ppl on this board assuming because he was a 5 star he is suppose to be perfect at this level in his first year it’s ridiculous

Fair point on the NIL money for players that are late first to second round projections.