Inviting analysis: Why do so many #1 seeds exit early from CWS?

[VolPack22]

That makes a lot of sense to me - the drain on emotions winning both the regular season and tournament SEC championships is likely to be very high. There's evidence that happened to us: We uncharacteristically fell behind by four runs a couple of times in the regionals, and Russell calling in sick with anxiety in the regionals (wonder how many others were anxious, too. Maybe Russell was the canary in the coalmine). And our pitching got hit hard in both the regionals and super. I think you're on to something about the price to be paid for winning both championships before the national tournament. Look how MSt won it all after not caring in the SEC tourney.

Something of note: Ole Miss and Auburn got put out in the 1st round and Arkansas got double dipped in the SECT. All 3 of those teams lost their last series of the regular season also. A&M is the only team that made it to the CWS that won a game in the SECT.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Seeding plays a huge part as does officating add to it #1 Ranking. Looking at the SEC Teams that made it to the CWS.
Auburn & Ole Miss 1 Game in SEC TOURNEY 10 days+ rest
Arkansas 2 games SEC tourney 10 days rest
Texas A&M 4 Games 7 days rest...
We got penalized for winning the SeC tourney

 

[Volprofch05]

Something of note: Ole Miss and Auburn got put out in the 1st round and Arkansas got double dipped in the SECT. All 3 of those teams lost their last series of the regular season also. A&M is the only team that made it to the CWS that won a game in the SECT.

Plus, let's not forget that we had an unusual schedule for the SEC tourney, as amusingly conveyed by CTV:

 

[Titan05]

We are the third consecutive #1 overall seed to be eliminated in the super regionals. That should tell you all you need to know about this tournament. The #1 does not get rewarded like it should. I didn’t really have any issues with the seedings like the basketball tournament seems to have an issue with, but it’s the geographic placements that are the biggest concern for me. Any potential matchup should give the #1 seed the easiest path to the CWS. They should do one of two things:

Option 1:
The #1 seed should get these seeds:
#32, #48, #64

The #16 seed should get:
#31, #47, #63


Option 2:
The #1 seed should get the same three seeds above and then the #2 seed gets the next three seeds listed above and just go down the line until the #16 seed gets #17, #33, and #49. Then they should re-seed for placements in the super regionals based on worst seed going to best seed.

What a nightmare overthink. The current seeding system is just fine.

 

[Sudden Impact]

What a nightmare overthink. The current seeding system is just fine.

The Seeding is a moving target each year for Basketball and Baseball and if football seeded a 16 Team it would Be just as bad.

Their is no standard Criteria in the Seeding, it changes every year. One will say RPI another will say ratings based BPI, conference Championship, last 10 games and so on and so forth. The Criteria changes from year to year so you never know.
My best guess is that it is an Eye test and very subjective.
Take a look at the analysis about vs Top RPI teams.

 

[Tenacjim]

What a nightmare overthink. The current seeding system is just fine.

Exactly. We ended up effectively playing the #17 (best #2) in the Supers instead of #16 (lowest #1 seed). If anybody had a complaint about the seedlings, it was ND. Top 10 RPI they get a 2 seed and they were slated to face the overall #1 seed on the road. And they took care of business….
we should have been able to handle anyone they put in our way. Especially at home.

 

[99gator]

I believe most of the time they do make it to Omaha. They just don’t win the whole thing.

The reason people are making a big deal over this is because usually the difference between the #1 and #11 team in the country is pretty damn small.

However, in this particular year, for the first time in my memory, #1 was believed to be so far and away better than everyone else.

But, it’s still baseball

 

[Bigun]

Exactly. We ended up effectively playing the #17 (best #2) in the Supers instead of #16 (lowest #1 seed). If anybody had a complaint about the seedlings, it was ND. Top 10 RPI they get a 2 seed and they were slated to face the overall #1 seed on the road. And they took care of business….
we should have been able to handle anyone they put in our way. Especially at home.

If they did reseed after Regionals, who would we have been slotted against? UConn maybe?

 

[VolPack22]

What a nightmare overthink. The current seeding system is just fine.

I said nothing about the seeding system itself for baseball. I said that is fine. It’s the geographic placements of teams. Everyone knows the worst team in the tournament was Coppin St. Did we get them?

 

[Bigun]

I said nothing about the seeding system itself for baseball. I said that is fine. It’s the geographic placements of teams. Everyone knows the worst team in the tournament was Coppin St. Did we get them?

Agree. It's hard to talk about geographical place when New Mexico St goes to Corvallis, OR regional and Binghamton, NY goes to Stanford.

 

[Bigun]

In regards to the op, so many things go into these Regionals/Super Regionals.

Notre Dame was a bad matchup for us because they had a veteran team, solid pitching, and good contact hitting to move runners when they needed. They came up with timely hits when needed and we did not.

With all that being said, we led 3-1 in the 7th inning and had 2 strikes on the guy that had hit 1 HR all year. What lost the series was on that Sunday all of the runners we left on base. That had shown up from time to time that back half of the season but we usually overcame it. No excuse to have Stephenson on 2nd base and no out with your 2-3-4 hitters due up and he doesn't even advance a base. That is what the lost the game/series. Drew and Trey having beyond horrible Sundays didn't help. Lipscomb's first 3 at bats he saw 7 pitches and swung at every single one.

Hoping that next year we have better contact hitters. Seemed like this year we had power hitters but when we need to make contact to move guys we couldn't consistently do it.

 

[Tenacjim]

If they did reseed after Regionals, who would we have been slotted against? UConn maybe?

Likely Ole Miss. They were a 3 seed and viewed as one of the last 4 in. Arkansas was fairly low in RPI ahead of the tournament as well. Not sure I would have really wanted to play either of them the way we were playing by Supers….

 

[Tenacjim]

In regards to the op, so many things go into these Regionals/Super Regionals.

Notre Dame was a bad matchup for us because they had a veteran team, solid pitching, and good contact hitting to move runners when they needed. They came up with timely hits when needed and we did not.

With all that being said, we led 3-1 in the 7th inning and had 2 strikes on the guy that had hit 1 HR all year. What lost the series was on that Sunday all of the runners we left on base. That had shown up from time to time that back half of the season but we usually overcame it. No excuse to have Stephenson on 2nd base and no out with your 2-3-4 hitters due up and he doesn't even advance a base. That is what the lost the game/series. Drew and Trey having beyond horrible Sundays didn't help. Lipscomb's first 3 at bats he saw 7 pitches and swung at every single one.

Hoping that next year we have better contact hitters. Seemed like this year we had power hitters but when we need to make contact to move guys we couldn't consistently do it.

Good analysis. ND adjusted and we did not. Sometimes even within an at bat. I don’t remember the guy’s name (the one who was just coming back from a hamstring injury) but Blade made him look foolish on two pitches in Game 1 before he went yard. JB, TL & BB in particular seemed to swing at the same stuff out of the zone over and over again (Multiple ABs and multiple games).

 

[Bigun]

Likely Ole Miss. They were a 3 seed and viewed as one of the last 4 in. Arkansas was fairly low in RPI ahead of the tournament as well. Not sure I would have really wanted to play either of them the way we were playing by Supers….

Very true.

I posted above that these series come down to matchups. Notre Dame is a really good team but we had a 2 run lead in the 7th, which should have been more if we had come through with hits earlier in the game. We didn't lose because of bad seeding.

 

[Bigun]

Good analysis. ND adjusted and we did not. Sometimes even within an at bat. I don’t remember the guy’s name (the one who was just coming back from a hamstring injury) but Blade made him look foolish on two pitches in Game 1 before he went yard. JB, TL & BB in particular seemed to swing at the same stuff out of the zone over and over again (Multiple ABs and multiple games).

This is a controversial take, and much easier to make after losing Sunday....but I think if Gilbert doesn't play Sunday, we win the game. I think he was pressing to hard at the plate and he didn't come through. The previous day he was out and his replacements did some good things.

again, jmo and much easier to make that now......but can't imagine holding him out then if we had lost.....

 

[Bigun]

Good analysis. ND adjusted and we did not. Sometimes even within an at bat. I don’t remember the guy’s name (the one who was just coming back from a hamstring injury) but Blade made him look foolish on two pitches in Game 1 before he went yard. JB, TL & BB in particular seemed to swing at the same stuff out of the zone over and over again (Multiple ABs and multiple games).

Also.....Link Jarrett is a hell of a coach. He will kill it at FSU.

 

[Tenacjim]

This is a controversial take, and much easier to make after losing Sunday....but I think if Gilbert doesn't play Sunday, we win the game. I think he was pressing to hard at the plate and he didn't come through. The previous day he was out and his replacements did some good things.

again, jmo and much easier to make that now......but can't imagine holding him out then if we had lost.....

Yeah, hindsight. He’s our spark plug and we “ride or die” with him. I agree he seemed to be trying too hard to “make something happen”. I think that was somewhat true across the board in Game 1 and Game 3. one of the downsides of not having too much adversity/crunch situations throughout the year.

 

[Tenacjim]

Also.....Link Jarrett is a hell of a coach. He will kill it at FSU.

No doubt. He had a plan and was quick to adjust. Tip of the Cap to him. Wouldn’t want to see him land at an SEC rival for sure!

 

[firedog28]

In baseball you get 27 outs.If your team hits 27 screamer line drives right at someone the other team pitched a perfect game.I your pitcher strikes out 26 and allows a high pop long ball,(such as gave ND a tie in sun. game) you lose.Your team out hit them by a long shot but you lose. So many variables in baseball,it is very hard to pinpoint why you lose sometimes when you are sure you have the better team By the way the HR hit by the guy for ND was his 2nd HR of the year.Hard to predict!

 

[nashvillepanther]

We are the third consecutive #1 overall seed to be eliminated in the super regionals. That should tell you all you need to know about this tournament. The #1 does not get rewarded like it should. I didn’t really have any issues with the seedings like the basketball tournament seems to have an issue with, but it’s the geographic placements that are the biggest concern for me. Any potential matchup should give the #1 seed the easiest path to the CWS. They should do one of two things:

Option 1:
The #1 seed should get these seeds:
#32, #48, #64

The #16 seed should get:
#31, #47, #63


Option 2:
The #1 seed should get the same three seeds above and then the #2 seed gets the next three seeds listed above and just go down the line until the #16 seed gets #17, #33, and #49. Then they should re-seed for placements in the super regionals based on worst seed going to best seed.

Why? This is conceptually backwards to me?

#1 seed should get #32, #48, and #64.
#2 should get #31, #47, and #63.

The #16 should get #17, #33, and #49.

Edit: did not read option 2, oops.

 

[BruisedOrange]

90% of half this game = 45%

So 45% of this game is mental 😜

Just as an aside, the original Yogi Berra quote was "Baseball is 90% half mental."

I'll leave the math to others more qualified.

 

[TennEddie]

Re the OP, it just happens.
Of the 4 top seeds to start the playoffs,
UT,Stanford,Oregon State, and Virginia Tech,
only Stanford made it to Omaha and they
struggled with UConn to win their regional.

 

[djwes]

Some of it is how teams strengths, weaknesses & playing styles match up as well as not making mistakes. ND had a solid game plan and avoided errors and prevented big offensive innings from the Vols.

"60% of the time, it works every time" Brian Fantana

 

[youcancallmeAl]

Exactly. We ended up effectively playing the #17 (best #2) in the Supers instead of #16 (lowest #1 seed). If anybody had a complaint about the seedlings, it was ND. Top 10 RPI they get a 2 seed and they were slated to face the overall #1 seed on the road. And they took care of business….
we should have been able to handle anyone they put in our way. Especially at home.

Right. But we didn't, and the question is why.

 

[nashvillepanther]

Right. But we didn't, and the question is why.

In my opinion, the team peaked during the Ole Miss, Vandy, Florida stretch. They started to show cracks during Alabama/Auburn/Kentucky before reaching another emotional high during the SEC tournament (revenge from last year).

*In my perspective*, the euphoric emotional highs during the year turned into anxiety and tightness during the playoffs.