Interesting Coach Barnes tourney stat...

#26

esarmstrong

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#26
https://www.boydsbets.com/bracket-tips-by-seed/

According to this site there is a 47.3% chance for 2 seeds to make the Elite 8. It's definitely not a guarantee. They usually have to face the number 3 seed which is usually a top 12-16 team, plus I feel like there are always those random good 7 seeds that get hot.

There is a 22.2% chance for 2 seed to make it to the Final 4 and just a 4.1% for them to win a title.

1 Seed has a 69.6% chance to make the Elite 8 and a 40.4% chance to make it to the Final 4. The best chance to win the title at 14.8%. Getting the 1 seed would be huge!
I guess it's all a matter of the eye of the beholder, but those look like damn good odds to me. Almost even odds to get to the elite 8, without consideration given as to a specific draw. Only a one seed has the greater chance because of the huge difference between playing no better than a four seed in the sweet 16 round.

It confirms that coach Barnes reached the furthest level of probable success both times he was a two seed at Texas.
 
#27

Stoked

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#27
I guess it's all a matter of the eye of the beholder, but those look like damn good odds to me. Almost even odds to get to the elite 8, without consideration given as to a specific draw. Only a one seed has the greater chance because of the huge difference between playing no better than a four seed in the sweet 16 round.

It confirms that coach Barnes reached the furthest level of probable success both times he was a two seed at Texas.
Yeah but he was 3/3 in making the Elite 8 as a 2 seed or better. It's been a while since I've taken Stats so if my math is wrong someone correct me please...

There is a 69.6% chances to make the Elite 8 as a 1 and 47.3% chance to make it as a 2.

47.3/100 x 47.3/100 x 69.6/100 = 155,715.38/1,000,000 which means he had a 15.57% chance of going 3/3 at making the Elite 8. Those are not good odds at all.

His 2006 team should have made the Final 4 as well but they lost to LSU that was lead by Big Baby Davis and Tyrus Thomas. That game went to OT and LaMarcus Aldridge is what cost him the game. He was the best player on the team and played 44 min and went 2-14 fg only scoring 4 points. This would be like Grant only scoring 4 points in one game. There is no way we win.

His 2008 Elite 8 team got curbed stomped by Derrick Rose led Memphis. Not much you can say about that. They were the much better team \.
 
#28

Stoked

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#28
Just for a reference point UT has only been a #2 seed twice. Both times failed to make it to the Elite 8. Once losing in 2nd round to #7 seed Wichita State and the other time losing to #3 Seed Louisville. Pearl was loved here but he was way worse in the tourney. His Elite 8 run we were a #6 seed and he had a lucky draw facing the #11 seed and then the #14 seed in the 2nd round who had upset the #3 seed in the first round. Not to take away from that amazing run, but we were lucky we didn't have to face the #3 seed Georgetown who had Greg Monroe. I think we would have beat them but they would have been harder to beat than Ohio. The tourney is all about matchups, getting hot, and getting some lucky draws though so that's apart of it.
 
#29

bleedingTNorange

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#29
Just for a reference point UT has only been a #2 seed twice. Both times failed to make it to the Elite 8. Once losing in 2nd round to #7 seed Wichita State and the other time losing to #3 Seed Louisville. Pearl was loved here but he was way worse in the tourney. His Elite 8 run we were a #6 seed and he had a lucky draw facing the #11 seed and then the #14 seed in the 2nd round who had upset the #3 seed in the first round. Not to take away from that amazing run, but we were lucky we didn't have to face the #3 seed Georgetown who had Greg Monroe. I think we would have beat them but they would have been harder to beat than Ohio. The tourney is all about matchups, getting hot, and getting some lucky draws though so that's apart of it.
Now you’ve done it Storked
 
#30
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#30
When Coach Barnes has a 2 Seed or better he has made it to at least the Elite 8. He only has had the 1 Seed once while at Texas, and that was his Final 4 year. He has had the 2 Seed twice and made it to the Elite 8 both times. Coach Barnes has a bad reputation with early tourney exits, but it's with teams that aren't a 2 Seed or better, which we should be barring a loss to Mississippi State.

Diving deeper into Coach Barnes Final 4 team.

-Short bench: If you thought we had a short bench, his Final 4 team had an even weaker one. They relied heavily on guards TJ Ford and Brandon Mouton, their best two players and leading scorers. As crazy as this sounds, Bone might be better than Ford. He has turned the ball over less and has had about the same amount of assist and points. Mouton and Admiral are both similar in their roles with their team. Again, Admiral is better than Mouton imo. This team went about 7-8 deep.

-Length: This team was short. Starting lineup was 6'0, 6'5, 6'3, 6'8, 6'8. Their best post player was James Thomas who was 6'8 and averaged 11 ppg and 11 rpg. They had no one close to as good as Grant in the post.

Our team is better than his Final Four team imo. The Texas team got hot at the right time in the Tourney and Mouten caught fire. They faced some tough teams too. UConn led by Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor, then Michigan State, then eventually ran into Melo and got beat. They had only lost 5 games in the regular season and then lost the very 1st game in the Big 12 tournament to Texas Tech, right before their Final 4 run. They had a very similar record and ranking to us. I feel like either 1 or 2 of Admiral, Bowden, or Turner is going to catch fire like Mouton did and help Grant out with the scoring load. With the help of at least 2 of those 3 guys I think we could make a special run. We need Bone to be our TJ Ford and Alexander to block some shots and get some boards to fill the James Thomas role. I know we have some fans that are down on this team, but this team has the pieces to make a nice run if they truly want it.
its more about the teams they play, not the teams he had in the past. the game has changed since TJ Ford and teams are bigger, faster, and stronger. i get what your saying about his Tourney stats but his lineup sizes have no correlation to each other. 2 seed or better allows for easier schedule, regardless of lineup size.

the only way TN makes the final four is if Grant Williams can stay out of foul trouble. if barnes gets Grant to stay out of foul trouble and draw fouls on the other team, TN can go the distance.
 
#31

Stoked

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#31
its more about the teams they play, not the teams he had in the past. the game has changed since TJ Ford and teams are bigger, faster, and stronger. i get what your saying about his Tourney stats but his lineup sizes have no correlation to each other. 2 seed or better allows for easier schedule, regardless of lineup size.

the only way TN makes the final four is if Grant Williams can stay out of foul trouble. if barnes gets Grant to stay out of foul trouble and draw fouls on the other team, TN can go the distance.
Did you ever watch Emeka Okafor play in college, or just UConn in general in the early 2000's. I get what you're saying, but there's a narrative that Barnes loses early in the tourney, which isn't true when he's a 2 seed or higher (which we'll be). Was just trying to bring some stats to back it up, and I also wanted to point out the two teams similarities. Also a lot of people say we are too small of a team, so I wanted to point that out as well. Basketball was much more post oriented then and he had some small post players.
 
#32

esarmstrong

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#32
Just for a reference point UT has only been a #2 seed twice. Both times failed to make it to the Elite 8. Once losing in 2nd round to #7 seed Wichita State and the other time losing to #3 Seed Louisville. Pearl was loved here but he was way worse in the tourney. His Elite 8 run we were a #6 seed and he had a lucky draw facing the #11 seed and then the #14 seed in the 2nd round who had upset the #3 seed in the first round. Not to take away from that amazing run, but we were lucky we didn't have to face the #3 seed Georgetown who had Greg Monroe. I think we would have beat them but they would have been harder to beat than Ohio. The tourney is all about matchups, getting hot, and getting some lucky draws though so that's apart of it.
Two (2) specific instances bad seeding and bad matchups. The first of Tennessee being seeded too high and Wichita State too low (in the first instance) and Louisville being seeded way too low (in the second instance). There were many people predicting we would lose that game to Wichita State in the second round. We were the underdog against Louisville in the second case and sure enough, they beat us easily.
 
#33

esarmstrong

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#33
Yeah but he was 3/3 in making the Elite 8 as a 2 seed or better. It's been a while since I've taken Stats so if my math is wrong someone correct me please...

There is a 69.6% chances to make the Elite 8 as a 1 and 47.3% chance to make it as a 2.

47.3/100 x 47.3/100 x 69.6/100 = 155,715.38/1,000,000 which means he had a 15.57% chance of going 3/3 at making the Elite 8. Those are not good odds at all.

His 2006 team should have made the Final 4 as well but they lost to LSU that was lead by Big Baby Davis and Tyrus Thomas. That game went to OT and LaMarcus Aldridge is what cost him the game. He was the best player on the team and played 44 min and went 2-14 fg only scoring 4 points. This would be like Grant only scoring 4 points in one game. There is no way we win.

His 2008 Elite 8 team got curbed stomped by Derrick Rose led Memphis. Not much you can say about that. They were the much better team \.
I don't want to turn this into a statistics course, but what is being said in the highlighted sentence seems to be in total contradiction to the sentence just above it. Your math doesn't appear to take into account the decidedly higher probability of a 2 seed beating a 15 seed in the first game and still high probability beating 7/10 seed in a second game. It's only when you get to a potential matchup with a 3 seed in the third game that "the cheese becomes more binding".

EDIT: I see what you are saying now. The odds at doing the same thing three times vs. just once. My bad. I was not talking about the same thing you were talking about.:oops:

Looking at it as a statistical probability problem, seems that one could argue that coach Barnes is due to "lay an egg" as a 2 seed. Hope not.

Of course, these stats are general stats based upon the entire population of 2 seeds throughout the history of the tournament. Extraordinary coaches and extraordinary match-ups can bring about considerable variance from the norm.
 
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#34

VolGee4

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#34
Really?? No way, not me. Getting bounced at the round of 8 would be a huge letdown in my opinion. You gotta remember, with a 1 or 2, you shouldn't really even play a competitive game until the sweet 16.
Huh? If you are a 2 seed against a 1 seed in the Elite Eight, you are the underdog.
 
#35

VolAmerican

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#35
I'm disappointed that they didn't win the SEC this year, but I can't be down on a team that went 27-4. I'm glad we are even able to have this conversation, and hope these guys come out on fire in this tournament. If we can win the SEC tournament we should be a 1 seed again.
 
#36

Vols All Day

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#36
its more about the teams they play, not the teams he had in the past. the game has changed since TJ Ford and teams are bigger, faster, and stronger. i get what your saying about his Tourney stats but his lineup sizes have no correlation to each other. 2 seed or better allows for easier schedule, regardless of lineup size.

the only way TN makes the final four is if Grant Williams can stay out of foul trouble. if barnes gets Grant to stay out of foul trouble and draw fouls on the other team, TN can go the distance.
Guards win the tournament, not post players. Bone is the key to the Vols making a long run.
 
#39

volgrad500

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#39
Huh? If you are a 2 seed against a 1 seed in the Elite Eight, you are the underdog.
Not sure what your confusion is. I said if you are a 1 or 2 you shouldn't play a competitive game until the sweet 16. Your round of 64 and 32 games are essentially games you should definitely win.
 
#40

Stoked

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#40
Not sure what your confusion is. I said if you are a 1 or 2 you shouldn't play a competitive game until the sweet 16. Your round of 64 and 32 games are essentially games you should definitely win.
Idk the 7/10 seeds and 8/9 seeds usually give 1 and 2 seeds some trouble at times. It’s possible the 7/8 seed is a top 25 calibar team. Ole Miss, Louisville, Washington, UCF, Wofford, Baylor, Syracuse, Cincy, Iowa State, Iowa, and VCU are all 7-9 seeds in most bracketoglies. Those are teams you should win against, but would also be competitive and potential upsets. I wouldn’t want to run into Wofford, Syracuse, Iowa State, or Louisville (again) and have them as our 2nd round matchup.
 
#41

volgrad500

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#41
Idk the 7/10 seeds and 8/9 seeds usually give 1 and 2 seeds some trouble at times. It’s possible the 7/8 seed is a top 25 calibar team. Ole Miss, Louisville, Washington, UCF, Wofford, Baylor, Syracuse, Cincy, Iowa State, Iowa, and VCU are all 7-9 seeds in most bracketoglies. Those are teams you should win against, but would also be competitive and potential upsets. I wouldn’t want to run into Wofford, Syracuse, Iowa State, or Louisville (again) and have them as our 2nd round matchup.
Fair enough. Any given team on any given night, especially in the tournament. But look at it this way- if you are a 1 or 2, and you don't make it out of the first weekend, isn't that a major disappointment? If you are presumably ranked no worse than 8th, and possibly as high as 1, and you lose to a team not ranked in the top 30?
 
#42

Vols All Day

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#42
I have to go with Turner.

His shots need to start falling again.
I hope Turner can get it going, but we can win big games without him. Also, we can win without him hitting threes, as long as he does not jack up bad shots and mess up the flow of the offense (those bad 3’s lead to easy fastbreak buckets for the other team). However, we cannot win big without Bone. There is a reason Bone plays the most minutes on the team.
 
#43

Stoked

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#43
Fair enough. Any given team on any given night, especially in the tournament. But look at it this way- if you are a 1 or 2, and you don't make it out of the first weekend, isn't that a major disappointment? If you are presumably ranked no worse than 8th, and possibly as high as 1, and you lose to a team not ranked in the top 30?
Yeah that would be a disappointment to me tbh.
 
#44

VolGee4

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#44
Not sure what your confusion is. I said if you are a 1 or 2 you shouldn't play a competitive game until the sweet 16. Your round of 64 and 32 games are essentially games you should definitely win.
In the first part of that post, you stated, “getting bounced in the round of 8 would be a huge letdown.” It was in response to Bruin saying that Memphis was a 1 seed when they beat Barnes and Texas. If you are the 2 seed in the Elite Eight and you play the 1 seed, you are the underdog.

I really have no issue if this team eventually lost in the EE. Of course I want to go further, but making a FF is difficult.
 
#45

The Dog

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#45
Idk the 7/10 seeds and 8/9 seeds usually give 1 and 2 seeds some trouble at times. It’s possible the 7/8 seed is a top 25 calibar team. Ole Miss, Louisville, Washington, UCF, Wofford, Baylor, Syracuse, Cincy, Iowa State, Iowa, and VCU are all 7-9 seeds in most bracketoglies. Those are teams you should win against, but would also be competitive and potential upsets. I wouldn’t want to run into Wofford, Syracuse, Iowa State, or Louisville (again) and have them as our 2nd round matchup.
Syracuse and that zone can be scary. Still, if we can get Grant the ball around the foul line 3 out of 4 times on offense, I think he will make the right decision and we could blow them out, this year. I've watched them a few times this year and they couldn't score in a whore house with a pocket full of hundred dollar bills.
 

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