In case you haven't noticed, we're on the move -2022 Rankings-

#29

reaperkyle

Orange Blooded
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#29
Lol another star gazer… trust your eyes and go watch film of our commits or shut up crying my goodness we got some kids coming that actually fit our scheme and are good players I could care less about a star ranking…

No offense, but statistically speaking, maybe you should.

College players get drafted based on their ability and performance in college, yes? So.....

Last 4 years combined:
***** 84/126 were drafted. 67%
**** 269/1096 were drafted. 25%
*** 409/5461 were drafted. 7%
** or unranked 115/5600 were drafted. 2%

There's a lot of 3* players in the NFL for one reason: There's 5x more of them than 4 and 5*'s put together.

Everyone has their own favorite underachieving 5* and overachieving 3* that they like to throw out, but the facts are the facts. Every time we get a 4* recruit, he has 3.5x more probability to develop into a NFL caliber player than a 3*. Every time we get a 5* recruit, he has 10x more probability of developing into a NFL caliber player than a 3*. That's why I get excited when I see a higher ranked player commit to us, and that's why every SEC or National Championship team in the modern era has had more 4 and 5*'s in their two deep than 3*'s.

I'm sure our coaches would prefer more certainty with higher ranked guys, but Tennessee just can't pull the higher ranked players on a consistent basis right now. They are recruiting who they think we have a chance with. Some consistent success on the field can and will change that IMO, because Tennessee continues to show out when recruits get on campus.

I love Coach Heupel and really believe he can get us to where we are competing for Championships again, but to have a consistent shot at the big boys, we need a higher talent level. Embrace the facts and let us enjoy gazing.

I do think there's a good chance this staff adds 3-5 higher ranked guys (4* or above) in this recruiting cycle, as well as a few highly ranked transfers.
 
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#30

VolArmy74

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#30
I hate to say this - but you guys always saying star gazing is overrated, well the correlation between numbers of four and five star talent and the top teams (usually in the CFP) - Ohio State, Clemmer, Bammer, UGA, etc etc is very close. Said differently, when we were good, we were loaded with 4 and 5s.
There is no explaining this away with “coach em up and judge the film yourself etc”
It’s just reality. You take a team loaded with 4s and 5s and they will usually beat down a team with 3s.
See what’s gonna happen to Cincinnati for example.
The correlation between certain coaches with high level talent and high end of season rankings is close. There are many others who have loaded rosters who suck. USC, LSU, FSU, Miami, Tennessee, Florida often, Auburn, Texas, etc etc. There are plenty of schools in the top 20 talent composite in the nation that didn't finish in the top 20, many are on the coaching merry-go-round.
 
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#33

Birdie

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#33
I see nothing that warrants optimism in recruiting. Only three 4* recruits. We trail USC, UK, AR, and MO. AL and UGA have 6X more 4-5* recruits. That's not 6 more but 6X more. No way we will compete with those programs unless recruiting improves dramatically. Heupel has to do better. Hopefully, he will.
If recruiting is getting better with some nice prospects on the line to improve it even more and you want Heupel to do better going forward then how do you seen no reason for optimism?

Investigation killed any chance for a great class and we've sucked for a long time. Yes... Heupel will need to do better going forward but the recruiting is improving right now.
 
#34

Birdie

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#34
UF will finish strong like they ALWAYS do! They wont stay at 76. I wouldnt be surprised to see them crack the top 15-20.
Haha no.. their coach literally said this would not happen and the world has changed with early signing period. They'll be fortunate to crack the top 30
 
#35

Mtnvol80

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#35
The correlation between certain coaches with high level talent and high end of season rankings is close. There are many others who have loaded rosters who suck. USC, LSU, FSU, Miami, Tennessee, Florida often, Auburn, Texas, etc etc. There are plenty of schools in the top 20 talent composite in the nation that didn't finish in the top 20, many are on the coaching merry-go-round.
Partly true. You have the top 5 in recruiting then it's a pretty big step down. It's no coincidence that everyone was getting sick of alabama, Clemson, Ohio state and Oklahoma in the playoffs which also happened to be the top teams in recruiting. There's going to be outliers
 
#37

Samthebam

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#37
No offense, but statistically speaking, maybe you should.

College players get drafted based on their ability and performance in college, yes? So.....

Last 4 years combined:
***** 84/126 were drafted. 67%
**** 269/1096 were drafted. 25%
*** 409/5461 were drafted. 7%
** or unranked 115/5600 were drafted. 2%

There's a lot of 3* players in the NFL for one reason: There's 5x more of them than 4 and 5*'s put together.

Everyone has their own favorite underachieving 5* and overachieving 3* that they like to throw out, but the facts are the facts. Every time we get a 4* recruit, he has 3.5x more probability to develop into a NFL caliber player than a 3*. Every time we get a 5* recruit, he has 10x more probability of developing into a NFL caliber player than a 3*. That's why I get exited when I see a higher ranked player commit to us, and that's why every SEC or National Championship team in the modern era has had more 4 and 5*'s in their two deep than 3*'s.

I'm sure our coaches would prefer more certainty with higher ranked guys, but Tennessee just can't pull the higher ranked players on a consistent basis right now. They are recruiting who they think we have a chance with. Some consistent success on the field can and will change that IMO, because Tennessee continues to show out when recruits get on campus.

I love Coach Heupel and really believe he can get us to where we are competing for Championships again, but to have a consistent shot at the big boys, we need a higher talent level. Embrace the facts and let us enjoy gazing.

That said, I do think there's a good chance Tennessee adds 3-5 higher ranked guys (4* or above) in this recruiting cycle, as well as a few highly ranked transfers.
Fair and balanced post.
Fact is we’d all be happier with more higher ranked guys than we currently have.
But also a fact that Heupel has won more with less thus far, and if the winning continues, we should be able to recruit higher rated players in the future.
 
#38

Birdie

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#38
I hate to say this - but you guys always saying star gazing is overrated, well the correlation between numbers of four and five star talent and the top teams (usually in the CFP) - Ohio State, Clemmer, Bammer, UGA, etc etc is very close. Said differently, when we were good, we were loaded with 4 and 5s.
There is no explaining this away with “coach em up and judge the film yourself etc”
It’s just reality. You take a team loaded with 4s and 5s and they will usually beat down a team with 3s.
See what’s gonna happen to Cincinnati for example.
Yes.. it's called statistics and the law of averages. TN was never gonna have a top 10 class this year with this investigation stuff. We may end up with a too 17-20 class and some really good portal players that don't count in that average though. That doesn't win a Natty, you are correct. But with good coaching it beats the little 4 again. Win 8-9 next year and recruiting improves.

Not fair judge class ranking against Huep this year given an external factor he can't control.
 
#39

J C Higgins

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Joined
Sep 13, 2017
Messages
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573
#39
I hate to say this - but you guys always saying star gazing is overrated, well the correlation between numbers of four and five star talent and the top teams (usually in the CFP) - Ohio State, Clemmer, Bammer, UGA, etc etc is very close. Said differently, when we were good, we were loaded with 4 and 5s.
There is no explaining this away with “coach em up and judge the film yourself etc”
It’s just reality. You take a team loaded with 4s and 5s and they will usually beat down a team with 3s.
See what’s gonna happen to Cincinnati for example.
Definitely a correlation. That's the reason I don't automatically say a coach with a great record is great if he or she has that kind of player talent with which to work.

And yes, Fullmer enjoyed that luxury. IMO neither Fulmer nor Chavis were great coaches. They just surfed a wave of player talent.

On the other hand Heupel produced far more than expected considering what he had to work with. Great offensive coach .
 
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#43

OrangeDog

From the Marketplace of Progressive West Tennessee
Joined
Jun 23, 2009
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#43
There are many ways to evaluate recruiting by the teams that are winning, as well as the hottest newest coaches.
One thing that we have to consider is what comes first: the Chicken or the Egg? Winning or recruiting?
I know that is an over simplification that also fits with: "the rich get richer."
With the new rules ($$$) a lot of this has changed and RICH means even more now than just polls at the end of the year. We are plowing new ground with recruiting and everyone is learning what works and what doesn't.
KEEPING those 5* guys is also changing. Teams/Coaches/Alumni are thinking outside the box. Ask me in 5 years and I'll explain everything (just like Covid). Then we can all say I TOLD YOU SO! because we're so d@m smart. I think really hard, but not always really good and I can take criticism and rebuttal. ................ Thoughts?...please be gentle.
 
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#47
Joined
Mar 4, 2010
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#47
If recruiting is getting better with some nice prospects on the line to improve it even more and you want Heupel to do better going forward then how do you seen no reason for optimism?

Investigation killed any chance for a great class and we've sucked for a long time. Yes... Heupel will need to do better going forward but the recruiting is improving right now.
To add to this. Heupel and staff were hired less than a year ago. UTs recruiting staff were canned. UTs has already self imposed recruiting restrictions, plus negative recruiting against UT. Lots of hills to climb for this staff
 
#49

TNnative

Well known pain in the azz
Joined
Oct 21, 2012
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#49
Great News! When I see this I get that same confidence I felt going into a game with this staff after they got settled in on Hooker as the starter. You know what I mean? That little tinge of confidence that you never had with Pruitt, Botch, etc... they apparently did some great recruiting but never could quite manage the big picture. I hope things really are different this time around.
The difference will be development. Recruiting is extremely important. But if the players are not properly utilized and properly coached up? They will hit the transfer portal faster than you can replace them. As to the confidence you are speaking of? Well some had that with Pruitt and Butch for awhile. Until the cracks started showing in how they did things. Hopefully, they do things right so that confidence gets greater rather than eroding.
 
#50

GUNTERSVOL

VOL FROM BIRTH
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Dec 30, 2017
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#50
No offense, but statistically speaking, maybe you should.

College players get drafted based on their ability and performance in college, yes? So.....

Last 4 years combined:
***** 84/126 were drafted. 67%
**** 269/1096 were drafted. 25%
*** 409/5461 were drafted. 7%
** or unranked 115/5600 were drafted. 2%

There's a lot of 3* players in the NFL for one reason: There's 5x more of them than 4 and 5*'s put together.

Everyone has their own favorite underachieving 5* and overachieving 3* that they like to throw out, but the facts are the facts. Every time we get a 4* recruit, he has 3.5x more probability to develop into a NFL caliber player than a 3*. Every time we get a 5* recruit, he has 10x more probability of developing into a NFL caliber player than a 3*. That's why I get excited when I see a higher ranked player commit to us, and that's why every SEC or National Championship team in the modern era has had more 4 and 5*'s in their two deep than 3*'s.

I'm sure our coaches would prefer more certainty with higher ranked guys, but Tennessee just can't pull the higher ranked players on a consistent basis right now. They are recruiting who they think we have a chance with. Some consistent success on the field can and will change that IMO, because Tennessee continues to show out when recruits get on campus.

I love Coach Heupel and really believe he can get us to where we are competing for Championships again, but to have a consistent shot at the big boys, we need a higher talent level. Embrace the facts and let us enjoy gazing.

I do think there's a good chance this staff adds 3-5 higher ranked guys (4* or above) in this recruiting cycle, as well as a few highly ranked transfers.

ON THE OTHER HAND, it is not like any staff is out there blindly fishing in the vast 3 star pool. Just like 5's and 4's are pools of PROBABILITY as you have displayed, there are tiers within those categories and especially tiers within the 3 star category. Though it would be hard to ever quantify, I wonder what the success rate of 3 stars receiving committable P5 offers is. They are not using dart boards when approaching these guys. I would imagine it would be lower than the 4 star percentage, but certainly not the 7% number in your analysis. The 409 success stories from the 3 star pool does support loyal fans taking exception to the discouraging posts on signing day and before they get on the practice field. For sure, a good number of these guys are late bloomers athletically, some have been behind older players of similar talent on the depth charts, some at very unsuccessful programs where analysis could be hard to perform.

You can make statistics say what you want them to say. For example your analysis shows that there are 4 times more 3 stars drafted than 5 stars. It is somewhat disingenuous to count the three star guys that hit the radar simply because they went to camp somewhere or had a supportive coach throw their name in the hat. There are success rates within each pool and trying to pick winners on signing day is just not an intelligent approach.
 

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