I'm a curious sort of fellow...

[StrangeVol]

You might gather that from my nickname on here, but I've always had this little voice in the back of my mind that asks "what if" or "why." It's a curse I guess but I enjoy indulging my little voice every now and then, especially when things bug me a lot.

Getting swept by Arkansas was bad enough, and let me say right here that Arkansas is a really good to maybe a great team, and I just couldn't get over how bad they made us look, especially on Saturday.

So my little voice asked, "so what caused that?" I hesitated only briefly before digging deep into the season stats for both teams and came up with a partial explanation that you may find useful in quieting your own little voice, assuming you have one.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, suffice to say I finally picked three stats that I think will tell us what we need to understand about them and us as well. If you look at OBP (On Base Percentage), slg% (slugging percentage or how often a batter gets a multi-base hit), and bb (base on balls), the differences are pretty dramatic.

First, let's just look at how many bases on balls (excluding hbp, or hit by pitch) each team has so far this season. From our top 8 players we drew 149 walks. Arkansas drew 180. So it looks like one team is more selective at what they swing at than the other. How many times did you see us swing at balls clearly out of the strike zone during the series? How many times did you see Arkansas go after pitches that were obviously out of the zone? My theory is that Arkansas has excellent "plate discipline" and we expand the strike zone too often.

Second, I compared our slg% to theirs. We have two guys with slg% over .500 and one more that is within spitting distance. In contrast, Arkansas has six guys over .500 and one more within the aforementioned spitting distance. Those guys hit the ball hard. Us, not so much.

Finally, I looked at OBP to see where we stood relative to the Hawgs. They have four guys that have OBPs greater than .400, and three more that are within spitting distance. We have one guy over .400 and one more that is close, maybe two if you stretch pretty hard. Judging from this stat alone you can easily see that offensively Arkansas is a great deal better than we are.

It is now clear to me why we were beaten so soundly. They are just a better ball club. Also, it's my belief that if it wasn't for our excellent pitching all three games could have easily looked like the Saturday game. But, take heart, we are getting better. They have an established very well coached program, and we are the Phoenix, slowly rising from the ashes.

So, having written all this I feel better. Having read it, I hope you do, too.

 

[Halph66]

Good stuff OP. I said a few weeks back we are a much improved baseball team. We have stuff to work on and probably a few Jimmy & Joe's to add, but the program is in good hands. The coaches are coaching and recruiting well. And the players are fun to watch. When you look at the picture overall. Opportune hitting is really the major need. Fielding is very sound, evidenced by the low number of errors and highly ranked. And pitching is a little inconsistent, but still one of the best in the country. The future is bright.

Arkansas is a very good baseball team. I like the way Casey Opitz (catcher) plays the game. He has a good mix of talent and cockiness. GBO!

 

[cwbytruckers]

Ok question about recruiting. Are we or do we have guys coming in that can swing the bat for power? I've never followed the recruiting side of baseball. I'm more of a season starts lets see what we got. So how is recruiting looking for next season?

 

[cardvolfan]

You might gather that from my nickname on here, but I've always had this little voice in the back of my mind that asks "what if" or "why." It's a curse I guess but I enjoy indulging my little voice every now and then, especially when things bug me a lot.

Getting swept by Arkansas was bad enough, and let me say right here that Arkansas is a really good to maybe a great team, and I just couldn't get over how bad they made us look, especially on Saturday.

So my little voice asked, "so what caused that?" I hesitated only briefly before digging deep into the season stats for both teams and came up with a partial explanation that you may find useful in quieting your own little voice, assuming you have one.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, suffice to say I finally picked three stats that I think will tell us what we need to understand about them and us as well. If you look at OBP (On Base Percentage), slg% (slugging percentage or how often a batter gets a multi-base hit), and bb (base on balls), the differences are pretty dramatic.

First, let's just look at how many bases on balls (excluding hbp, or hit by pitch) each team has so far this season. From our top 8 players we drew 149 walks. Arkansas drew 180. So it looks like one team is more selective at what they swing at than the other. How many times did you see us swing at balls clearly out of the strike zone during the series? How many times did you see Arkansas go after pitches that were obviously out of the zone? My theory is that Arkansas has excellent "plate discipline" and we expand the strike zone too often.

Second, I compared our slg% to theirs. We have two guys with slg% over .500 and one more that is within spitting distance. In contrast, Arkansas has six guys over .500 and one more within the aforementioned spitting distance. Those guys hit the ball hard. Us, not so much.

Finally, I looked at OBP to see where we stood relative to the Hawgs. They have four guys that have OBPs greater than .400, and three more that are within spitting distance. We have one guy over .400 and one more that is close, maybe two if you stretch pretty hard. Judging from this stat alone you can easily see that offensively Arkansas is a great deal better than we are.

It is now clear to me why we were beaten so soundly. They are just a better ball club. Also, it's my belief that if it wasn't for our excellent pitching all three games could have easily looked like the Saturday game. But, take heart, we are getting better. They have an established very well coached program, and we are the Phoenix, slowly rising from the ashes.

So, having written all this I feel better. Having read it, I hope you do, too.

Good stuff, and it all goes back to advanced metrics. If you become more disciplined and selective at the plate, you are generally going to walk more, but when you do swing at pitches in the zone, you are going to make better, harder contact, exactly what Arkansas does. That hard contact, and barreling a higher percentage of balls results in some pretty discernible differences in slugging percentage and therefore, runs scored, etc. So, walk rate goes up, strike outs go down, hard contact ensues, and you become a juggernaut offensively. Combine that with solid pitching and defense, aggressively smart base running, and you become a very, very good team.

 

[RollerVol]

good stuff SV...just wondering...did the wholesale lineup change for the second game help any...I mean, we did lose the first game, but only by a 11-9 score...the second game was a total blowout...see you're not the only strange one with the little voice in their head...

GO BIG ORANGE!

 

[DonDiego]

You might gather that from my nickname on here, but I've always had this little voice in the back of my mind that asks "what if" or "why." It's a curse I guess but I enjoy indulging my little voice every now and then, especially when things bug me a lot.

Getting swept by Arkansas was bad enough, and let me say right here that Arkansas is a really good to maybe a great team, and I just couldn't get over how bad they made us look, especially on Saturday.

So my little voice asked, "so what caused that?" I hesitated only briefly before digging deep into the season stats for both teams and came up with a partial explanation that you may find useful in quieting your own little voice, assuming you have one.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, suffice to say I finally picked three stats that I think will tell us what we need to understand about them and us as well. If you look at OBP (On Base Percentage), slg% (slugging percentage or how often a batter gets a multi-base hit), and bb (base on balls), the differences are pretty dramatic.

First, let's just look at how many bases on balls (excluding hbp, or hit by pitch) each team has so far this season. From our top 8 players we drew 149 walks. Arkansas drew 180. So it looks like one team is more selective at what they swing at than the other. How many times did you see us swing at balls clearly out of the strike zone during the series? How many times did you see Arkansas go after pitches that were obviously out of the zone? My theory is that Arkansas has excellent "plate discipline" and we expand the strike zone too often.

Second, I compared our slg% to theirs. We have two guys with slg% over .500 and one more that is within spitting distance. In contrast, Arkansas has six guys over .500 and one more within the aforementioned spitting distance. Those guys hit the ball hard. Us, not so much.

Finally, I looked at OBP to see where we stood relative to the Hawgs. They have four guys that have OBPs greater than .400, and three more that are within spitting distance. We have one guy over .400 and one more that is close, maybe two if you stretch pretty hard. Judging from this stat alone you can easily see that offensively Arkansas is a great deal better than we are.

It is now clear to me why we were beaten so soundly. They are just a better ball club. Also, it's my belief that if it wasn't for our excellent pitching all three games could have easily looked like the Saturday game. But, take heart, we are getting better. They have an established very well coached program, and we are the Phoenix, slowly rising from the ashes.

So, having written all this I feel better. Having read it, I hope you do, too.

That's good analysis and writing.

 

[txbo]

We're only one game off of pace for where we need to be. We are at home this week. Win the series and we're one game off. Sweep and we're talking about hosting a regional again.

 

[StrangeVol]

We're only one game off of pace for where we need to be. We are at home this week. Win the series and we're one game off. Sweep and we're talking about hosting a regional again.

For what it's worth, I'm gonna look forward at Mizzou and try to see what insight the metrics might offer. If I have a "eureka moment" I may email CTV!

Nahhhh prolly not

 

[StrangeVol]

That's good analysis and writing.

Thanks for the comment man...I enjoy writing and every now and then I write something that isn't too bad.

Good stuff, and it all goes back to advanced metrics. If you become more disciplined and selective at the plate, you are generally going to walk more, but when you do swing at pitches in the zone, you are going to make better, harder contact, exactly what Arkansas does. That hard contact, and barreling a higher percentage of balls results in some pretty discernible differences in slugging percentage and therefore, runs scored, etc. So, walk rate goes up, strike outs go down, hard contact ensues, and you become a juggernaut offensively. Combine that with solid pitching and defense, aggressively smart base running, and you become a very, very good team.

Our thinking is identical regarding the result of exercising good plate discipline. When I was coaching, I used to tell my softball girls they'd have to walk home if they did either one of two things. First, if you swing at a pitch outside the strike zone, you're hoofin' it home. Second, if you swing like you're not sure you should swing, get out your walkin' shoes.

At bat, either one is a mortal sin in my book.

 

[Roustabout]

You might gather that from my nickname on here, but I've always had this little voice in the back of my mind that asks "what if" or "why." It's a curse I guess but I enjoy indulging my little voice every now and then, especially when things bug me a lot.

Getting swept by Arkansas was bad enough, and let me say right here that Arkansas is a really good to maybe a great team, and I just couldn't get over how bad they made us look, especially on Saturday.

So my little voice asked, "so what caused that?" I hesitated only briefly before digging deep into the season stats for both teams and came up with a partial explanation that you may find useful in quieting your own little voice, assuming you have one.

Without getting too deep in the weeds, suffice to say I finally picked three stats that I think will tell us what we need to understand about them and us as well. If you look at OBP (On Base Percentage), slg% (slugging percentage or how often a batter gets a multi-base hit), and bb (base on balls), the differences are pretty dramatic.

First, let's just look at how many bases on balls (excluding hbp, or hit by pitch) each team has so far this season. From our top 8 players we drew 149 walks. Arkansas drew 180. So it looks like one team is more selective at what they swing at than the other. How many times did you see us swing at balls clearly out of the strike zone during the series? How many times did you see Arkansas go after pitches that were obviously out of the zone? My theory is that Arkansas has excellent "plate discipline" and we expand the strike zone too often.

Second, I compared our slg% to theirs. We have two guys with slg% over .500 and one more that is within spitting distance. In contrast, Arkansas has six guys over .500 and one more within the aforementioned spitting distance. Those guys hit the ball hard. Us, not so much.

Finally, I looked at OBP to see where we stood relative to the Hawgs. They have four guys that have OBPs greater than .400, and three more that are within spitting distance. We have one guy over .400 and one more that is close, maybe two if you stretch pretty hard. Judging from this stat alone you can easily see that offensively Arkansas is a great deal better than we are.

It is now clear to me why we were beaten so soundly. They are just a better ball club. Also, it's my belief that if it wasn't for our excellent pitching all three games could have easily looked like the Saturday game. But, take heart, we are getting better. They have an established very well coached program, and we are the Phoenix, slowly rising from the ashes.

So, having written all this I feel better. Having read it, I hope you do, too.

UT at the plate looks like a bunch of skinny high school kids.