I'm not sure it would be a LOT different in Wins and Losses than our current situation.
The big difference would be in our chances of getting to Atlanta. They'd be much worse.
Here's how I figured it. I just randomly grabbed one of the West teams' schedules (Auburn). I kept our current OOC games, because we're still Tennessee and would still look for the Battle at Bristol and in-state FBS charity games (Tn Tech) as we do today. Then I plugged those OOC games into what was Auburn's schedule, with all their SEC games unchanged. Then I made one other shift: I moved Bama to the 3rd Week in October, and shifted all the other games back a week to accomodate it.
Here's how it came out:
Sep 1 - Appy State (W)
Sep 10 - Va Tech, Battle at Bristol (W)
Sep 17 - A&M (W)
Sep 24 - LSU (push--could go either way)
Oct 1 - Ohio (W)
Oct 8 - Miss St (W)
Oct 15 - Bama (push--could go either way)
Oct 22 - Bye
Oct 29 - Arkansas (W)
Nov 5 - Ole Miss (push--could go either way)
Nov 12 - Vandy (W)
Nov 19 - Georgia (push--could go either way)
Nov 26 - Tennessee Tech (W)
So that's 8 wins and 4 challenges. Just like today, with the Florida-UGa-A&M-Bama gauntlet.
The good news: those 4 tough games are spread out much better, following Auburn's SEC slate. One is Sep (LSU), one in Oct (Bama), one in early Nov (Ole Miss), and one in late Nov (Georgia).
It's actually a somewhat easier schedule, in the spacing of the hard games. Except that Miss St and Arkansas are tougher than Kentucky and Mizzou (we still get Vandy, because Auburn plays them this year, heh).
So if we go 3-1 in our current Gauntlet, we go to Atlanta (esp. if that one loss is against Bama or A&M). But if we go 3-1 in those four games following Auburn's schedule, there's a good chance Bama or LSU beat us to the SEC CG.
The tolerances for error are just smaller in the West.
That's the big difference.
But we would still be hoping for a 10-2 or 11-1 outcome, either way.
Interesting question, PharmD, thanks for it!
Go Vols!
