milohimself
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I decided to compare the preseason and final AP polls from 2005-2009. I only went with the top 10 each way to deal with teams that were at least somewhat consistently in the polls at one point or another, and to avoid aberrations. The ranking is based on a net number of spots lost/gained between preseason and final polls, with any unranked position counted as a "26th spot."
Even though teams on both sides of the list have won BCS titles and bowls, points are awarded/taken away only for over or under-performance respectively. For instance, a team that starts and finishes 22nd nets zero, and the same goes for a team that runs the wire as #1. If you're expected to win the title in the preseason and do so, then nothing is gained or lost here.
I may have messed up math since this isn't proofed, but I feel pretty confident about its accuracy.
Top 10 most overrated teams since 2005:
1. Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners have actually failed to finish ranked above their preseason ranking since '05, but the worst season was last year in which the Sooners were ranked a lofty third and failed to finish the season in the top 25 after losing Sam Bradford for the majority of the season.
2. Florida State Seminoles
The Noles have thrice started the season ranked between 10-20 and failed to finish the season ranked since '05. They did outperform expectations in '08, however, starting outside the top 25 yet finishing 21st.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols actually ended up finishing close to expectations in '06 and '07, but we are all familiar with the disaster that was '05. A #3 preseason ranking turned into an unranked 5-6 finish.
4. Michigan Wolverines
The Vols weren't the only ones with an awful 2005; the Wolverines were ranked right behind at #4 and preseason Big Ten favorites; they went on to lose 3 conference games as well as contests with Notre Dame and Nebraska.
5. California Golden Bears
Like the Sooners, the Bears have been the model of consistent underachievement in recent history. In both '07 and '09, Tedford's Bears were given a preseason ranking of #12 and failed to finish ranked.
6. LSU Tigers
Even though they were the '07 national champs, and regarded as one of the worst NC teams of all-time, they did start the season ranked 2nd. The Tigers got hurt in '08 when they started with a top-10 ranking and finished unranked.
7. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have been a bit all over the map, but was ranked preseason #1 in '08, finished 13th, and ranked 13th preseason in '09 and finished UR.
8. USC Trojans
Though Pete Carroll has been the model of consistency, '09 was an unmitigated disaster in Troy between the Bush scandal. The Trojans still finished #22, however.
9. Auburn Tigers
Though the Tigers saw plenty of success under Tommy Tuberville, they did start as the 10th best team in the country in '08 and finished unranked.
10. Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals got some nice preseason rankings under Petrino; some were turned into nice rankings at seasons end, then there was '07.
Top 10 most underrated teams since 2005:
1. TCU Horned Frogs
Though the Toads did finish '07 unranked after a preseason #22, they have vastly outperformed expectations over other year since '05, including finishing 7th in the nation after being unranked to start '08.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Though they did outdo themselves last year with the national title, they really outdid themselves in '05 and '08 when they parlayed respective unranked and #24 starts into top ten finishes.
3. Boise State Broncos
The Broncos have finished unranked twice in the last five years, but have also finished high three times in that same time span.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats
Surprisingly, in spite of all of Brian Kelly's success with the Bearcats, they have never garnered a preseason top 25 ranking.
5. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks have done a great job outperforming expectations including '05, finishing 12th in the country after being unranked to start the season.
6. Boston College Eagles
They never get any respect, I tell ya! The Eagles have been ranked preseason once since '05, a meager 22nd. They finished 18th that year, and finished 10th in 2007.
7. Utah Utes
The Utes are getting this spot pretty much because they came out of nowhere in 2008 and beat #4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. They are arguably the team in recent history closest to getting a national championship when starting unranked.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions
While most of us traditionally think of Penn State as a somewhat overrated program, they did the exact opposite of Tennessee and Michigan in '05, turning a preseason UR into a #3 ranking to end the season.
9. BYU Cougars
Maybe independence will help these guys out? In spite of two preseason rankings in the last 5 seasons, the Stormin' Mormons have finished ranked top 25 four times.
10. Oregon State Beavers
Alongside Cincinnati, the Beavers are the only other team to never have a preseason ranking, yet finish top 25 multiple times. They have finished respectably in '06, '07 and '08 and came oh-so-close to finishing top 25 last season.
Even though teams on both sides of the list have won BCS titles and bowls, points are awarded/taken away only for over or under-performance respectively. For instance, a team that starts and finishes 22nd nets zero, and the same goes for a team that runs the wire as #1. If you're expected to win the title in the preseason and do so, then nothing is gained or lost here.
I may have messed up math since this isn't proofed, but I feel pretty confident about its accuracy.
Top 10 most overrated teams since 2005:
1. Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners have actually failed to finish ranked above their preseason ranking since '05, but the worst season was last year in which the Sooners were ranked a lofty third and failed to finish the season in the top 25 after losing Sam Bradford for the majority of the season.
2. Florida State Seminoles
The Noles have thrice started the season ranked between 10-20 and failed to finish the season ranked since '05. They did outperform expectations in '08, however, starting outside the top 25 yet finishing 21st.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols actually ended up finishing close to expectations in '06 and '07, but we are all familiar with the disaster that was '05. A #3 preseason ranking turned into an unranked 5-6 finish.
4. Michigan Wolverines
The Vols weren't the only ones with an awful 2005; the Wolverines were ranked right behind at #4 and preseason Big Ten favorites; they went on to lose 3 conference games as well as contests with Notre Dame and Nebraska.
5. California Golden Bears
Like the Sooners, the Bears have been the model of consistent underachievement in recent history. In both '07 and '09, Tedford's Bears were given a preseason ranking of #12 and failed to finish ranked.
6. LSU Tigers
Even though they were the '07 national champs, and regarded as one of the worst NC teams of all-time, they did start the season ranked 2nd. The Tigers got hurt in '08 when they started with a top-10 ranking and finished unranked.
7. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have been a bit all over the map, but was ranked preseason #1 in '08, finished 13th, and ranked 13th preseason in '09 and finished UR.
8. USC Trojans
Though Pete Carroll has been the model of consistency, '09 was an unmitigated disaster in Troy between the Bush scandal. The Trojans still finished #22, however.
9. Auburn Tigers
Though the Tigers saw plenty of success under Tommy Tuberville, they did start as the 10th best team in the country in '08 and finished unranked.
10. Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals got some nice preseason rankings under Petrino; some were turned into nice rankings at seasons end, then there was '07.
Top 10 most underrated teams since 2005:
1. TCU Horned Frogs
Though the Toads did finish '07 unranked after a preseason #22, they have vastly outperformed expectations over other year since '05, including finishing 7th in the nation after being unranked to start '08.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Though they did outdo themselves last year with the national title, they really outdid themselves in '05 and '08 when they parlayed respective unranked and #24 starts into top ten finishes.
3. Boise State Broncos
The Broncos have finished unranked twice in the last five years, but have also finished high three times in that same time span.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats
Surprisingly, in spite of all of Brian Kelly's success with the Bearcats, they have never garnered a preseason top 25 ranking.
5. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks have done a great job outperforming expectations including '05, finishing 12th in the country after being unranked to start the season.
6. Boston College Eagles
They never get any respect, I tell ya! The Eagles have been ranked preseason once since '05, a meager 22nd. They finished 18th that year, and finished 10th in 2007.
7. Utah Utes
The Utes are getting this spot pretty much because they came out of nowhere in 2008 and beat #4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. They are arguably the team in recent history closest to getting a national championship when starting unranked.
8. Penn State Nittany Lions
While most of us traditionally think of Penn State as a somewhat overrated program, they did the exact opposite of Tennessee and Michigan in '05, turning a preseason UR into a #3 ranking to end the season.
9. BYU Cougars
Maybe independence will help these guys out? In spite of two preseason rankings in the last 5 seasons, the Stormin' Mormons have finished ranked top 25 four times.
10. Oregon State Beavers
Alongside Cincinnati, the Beavers are the only other team to never have a preseason ranking, yet finish top 25 multiple times. They have finished respectably in '06, '07 and '08 and came oh-so-close to finishing top 25 last season.
