Here's the teams that gave the best defenses a difficult time in 2018

#52
#52
VolsSportsFan said:
Auburn wasn't a Top 30 Defense according to that list.
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The link posted above is yardage, not points. We are debating points scored (21 or more), not yards. Need to be consistent in the analysis.

Also, the best defenses don't give up points. Idc about yards.
 
#55
#55
Going by yards, UT is merely 5 spots behind Auburn. Yet, we gave up about 9 points a game more. No one in their right mind would confuse our defense for Auburn's over the course of the season.

Fwiw the difference probably has something to do with rz efficiency - we gave up TDs a league-worst 67% of the time. Auburn was 2nd in the league at 33%.
 
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#57
#57
Devo182 said:
Talk about skewed parameters leading to skewed results. No Big 12 teams would even be allowed to qualify under these parameters. An ACC or PAC team would have had to play the exact 3 teams in the top 30 from their conference, and then batted .1000. Meanwhile, an SEC team merely had to play 3 out of 7 different teams, greatly increasing the likelihood of eligibility and greatly decreasing their needed "batting average" to meet the parameter. TN, for example, had 5 chances to meet this bare minimum "21 point" barrier and met it 3 times, the highest of all them being 24 points (UK, including a hail mary). I guess we see why 21 points was chosen, had it been 25, we would not have hit it even ONCE.
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Excellent analysis and debunking of the original post.
 
#59
#59
golfballs said:
Espn has a pretty good tool for evaluating offenses. It takes a number of things into consideration included the strength of opposing defenses

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/offEfficiency/tab/efficiency
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Though they've been behind the AS curve and are just ripping off S&P+ and FEI, it sounds like they are using reasonable measures here. Kudos to ESPN for doing something right. Though I still trust Bill Connelly more. He is THE man for deep statistical analysis.
 
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#61
#61
Devo182 said:
You gave that stat yourself as an example of what is considered good, only to say it wasn't that good (notice, not because their scoring offense isn't even top 25, but because of scoring vs top-30 defenses). Only to show what a "good offense" apparently is. Your argument is simply inconsistent and poorly stated.
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Best post in the thread.
 
#63
#63
Vol_from_86 said:
I'm not editing anything because then the list would be compromised. It's a list of teams that scored 21 points or more against 3 Top 30 defenses. Tennessee is one of those teams. I'm not going to dig through all the box scores to figure out how many of those points was scored by the team's offense, even though that would make the list more dependable. That would take too long. The purpose of the study was to get an idea of who does well against good defenses, not to compose an infallible sports article. That's your job. I'm just a casual fan on a message board.
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Well, if your point was to make a case for the best offenses, it's pretty important to use only offensive stats and scores. It wouldn't "compromise" the list to take Tennessee off. It compromises what you claim your point to be if you don't remove Tennessee.

But, as I suspect, your entire point is to get people worked up about Tennessee being on the list, even though they don't meet the criteria you selected. So, in that way, it would "compromise" the list to remove Tennessee, as you wouldn't be getting people to argue over it.
 
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#64
#64
Devo182 said:
Talk about skewed parameters leading to skewed results. No Big 12 teams would even be allowed to qualify under these parameters. An ACC or PAC team would have had to play the exact 3 teams in the top 30 from their conference, and then batted .1000. Meanwhile, an SEC team merely had to play 3 out of 7 different teams, greatly increasing the likelihood of eligibility and greatly decreasing their needed "batting average" to meet the parameter. TN, for example, had 5 chances to meet this bare minimum "21 point" barrier and met it 3 times, the highest of all them being 24 points (UK, including a hail mary). I guess we see why 21 points was chosen, had it been 25, we would not have hit it even ONCE.
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And Georgia Tech has 4, 2 of which were Clemson and Georgia, but almost all of their points in those 2 games were scored against scrubs in garbage time. Clemson and Georgia beat GT like a circus monkey for the parts of the game that mattered.
 
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#65
#65
bamawriter said:
Well, if your point was to make a case for the best offenses, it's pretty important to use only offensive stats and scores. It wouldn't "compromise" the list to take Tennessee off. It compromises what your claim your point to be if you don't remove Tennessee.

But, as I suspect, your entire point is to get people worked up about Tennessee being on the list, even thought they don't meet the criteria you selected. So, in that way, it would "compromise" the list to remove Tennessee, as you wouldn't be getting people to argue over it.
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People aren't arguing with each other, they are just piling on me. You suspect that my entire point is to get people to do that?
 
#67
#67
volfannbama said:
OP had Tennessee listed ason one of the offenses that.accomplished what.ever this thread is about?
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Just trying to get people to look at more than total offense, ypg, or ppg when evaluating offensive coordinator candidates. The ultimate goal is to win a championship. To win a championship you have to go through good defenses. To beat good defenses you have to score against good defenses. I want to know who is doing that in today's game, so I put together a list of the teams who have scored the most points against the best defenses.

People are complicating the whole idea because they see Tennessee on a list and assume that I'm pumping sunshine or whatever. I'm not. Tennessee is just on the list. I haven't drawn any conclusions from the analysis ITT, but I probably should have in the OP so people wouldn't get the wrong idea.

Here's what I think when I see that list of 13 teams: I envy Texas A&M's offense, but I doubt we'd be able to get their OC. We probably should have hired Chip Lindsey. David Yost might be worth a look. Derek Dooley might be worth a look, but how much of their success should be attributed to Lock? Helton did okay against good defenses, wish we hadn't of sucked against Vandy.
 
#69
#69
Vol_from_86 said:
Ole Miss finished the season ranked #9 in total offense, but against good defenses (Alabama, MSU, LSU, and Auburn) they were out scored 173-42. That's 10.5 points per game. So are we suppose to think Ole Miss had a "good" offense simply because they were ranked in the top 10?

Statistics can be deceiving. To me, a good offense is one that does well against good defenses. In 2018, there are 13 teams that scored at least 21 points on 3 separate occasions against a Top 30 defense. Those teams are as follows:

Texas A&M (4)
Georgia Tech (4)
Auburn (4)
Virginia Tech (3)
Alabama (3)
Ohio State (3)
Boise State (3)
Stanford (3)
Georgia (3)
Missouri (3)
Penn State (3)
Tennessee (3)
Utah State (3)

Nothing earth shattering here, I know. Just thought I'd share what I found. TIFWIW.
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Too many flaws in OP analysis. Just use fei offensive rankings. It factors in everything, including opponent defensive strength.

FEI 2018
 

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#70
#70
Vol_from_86 said:
Just trying to get people to look at more than total offense, ypg, or ppg when evaluating offensive coordinator candidates. The ultimate goal is to win a championship. To win a championship you have to go through good defenses. To beat good defenses you have to score against good defenses. I want to know who is doing that in today's game, so I put together a list of the teams who have scored the most points against the best defenses.

People are complicating the whole idea because they see Tennessee on a list and assume that I'm pumping sunshine or whatever. I'm not. Tennessee is just on the list. I haven't drawn any conclusions from the analysis ITT, but I probably should have in the OP so people wouldn't get the wrong idea.

Here's what I think when I see that list of 13 teams: I envy Texas A&M's offense, but I doubt we'd be able to get their OC. We probably should have hired Chip Lindsey. David Yost might be worth a look. Derek Dooley might be worth a look, but how much of their success should be attributed to Lock? Helton did okay against good defenses, wish we hadn't of sucked against Vandy.
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If anyone googles "David Yost" be sure to include "football" in your search term or you'll get the wrong guy lol
 
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#72
#72
37620VOL said:
FEI 2017
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Was thinking of FEI as well, though I think he's trying to do a more narrow analysis of only how well you do vs top defenses. FEI already excludes d2 opponents, but unfortunately there's no tool to narrow it down further to exclude garbage and mediocre d1 opponents. Think you'd have to run a similar analysis and exclude those yourself.
 
#74
#74
37620VOL said:
Too many flaws in OP analysis. Just use fei offensive rankings. It factors in everything, including opponent defensive strength.

FEI 2018
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There are more than a few flaws in my analysis. It doesn't take into consideration defensive touchdowns, special teams touchdowns, and points off short fields. For example an offense shouldn't get credit for 3 points if the defense forced a turnover, offense goes backwards, and the team kicks a field goal. But the indexes on ESPN and the one you attached doesn't provide what I was looking for either. I was specifically looking for who has had the most success against the best defenses, so I decided to only look at games involving the best defenses. As others have pointed out ITT, that isn't fair to Big 12 offenses or teams like UCF because they don't play against top defenses.... but I'm specifically looking for teams who have had success against top defenses.

Maybe when I've got more time I'll dig a little deeper.
 
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