Here is why I think Vols beat Ole Miss

#1

OldVolMan

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#1
Flipdaddy has a valid post about his belief Ole Miss wins, so this is to counter that post.
We are going against a great QB but our QB is not too shabby, have you noticed.

These are just my thoughts.
1. Home Crowd; it will be loud and crazy in Neyland.
2. Coaching staff; I honestly think we have a better coaching staff.
3. Disclipine growth; Vols only have two penalties each last two games.
4. Pressure; Kiff will feel the pressure to win much more than JH. His ego not wanting Vols beat him.
5. Team Confidence; coaches have this team playing beyond their natural ability, injuries. They play on faith and confidence.
5. Coaches desire; they know what this game means to Vol fans, and will want to give them this win.
They want to be loved by the fans and this is an opportunity, they will work night and day to get ready for this game.
So, expect some very creative new plays and wrinkles to be pulled out.
 
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#3

WesternNCVol

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#3
I think we win this in a shootout barring something crazy or the injury bug.

The fans are making a huge deal over this game due to LK. None of the players played for him. The coaching staff certainly don’t fear him.

The atmosphere will likely be the most electric we’ve seen in a while.

My understanding is they can’t stop the run well. Turns out we run very well.

I feel good about this one.
 
#8

1world1love

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#8
I am not 100% convinced that we have the depth to keep up with them, but they did play a close game this weekend that was most likely physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausting. If anything, this is what I think gives us the most advantage. They have to carry that on the road in a place like Neyland Stadium, while we had a fairly stress free day where the outcome was never really in doubt.
 
#9

sjt18

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#9
I am not 100% convinced that we have the depth to keep up with them,
Really? Tell us how deep Ole Miss is compared to UT. I'm not blaming you. UT being thin is a narrative Hubbs and Price have pushed into the consciousness of UT fans... but take an honest look at Ole Miss as the measuring stick rather than UGA or Bama which they're likely doing. If UT is thin... then so is Ole Miss and so is UK.

UT just had to go to its #3 star. Guy had played sparingly.... supposedly UT was thin in the secondary, right? Turnage responded with 14 tackles and 2 TFL's vs USCe.... and he's still the 3rd best option at star. UT has played 3 deep in their front 4. They have 5 guys currently healthy who have given them good minutes at ILB.

UT has played 5 deep at RB. They've chosen to go primarily with 4 WR's but guys like Keyton, Merrill, and Calloway have a lot of talent.

OL is the one group where UT appears to have only 7 guys that are really ready right now to give them quality minutes.
 
#11
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#11
Flipdaddy has a valid post about his belief Ole Miss wins, so this is to counter that post.
We are going against a great QB but our QB is not too shabby, have you noticed.
These are just my thoughts.
1. Home Crowd; it will be loud and crazy in Neyland.
2. Coaching staff; I honestly think we have a better coaching staff.
3. Disclipine growth; Vols only have two penalties each last two games.
4. Pressure; I think Kiff will feel the pressure to win much more than JH.
5. Team Confidence; coaches have this team playing beyond their natural ability, injuries. They play on faith and confidence.
5. Coaches desire; they know what this game means to Vol fans, and will want to give them this win.
They want to be loved by the fans and this is an opportunity, they will work night and day to get ready for this game.
So, expect some very creative new plays and wrinkles to be pulled out.
Let me shorten this for you... We gonna win cause we a bunch of BAMF that's gonna WTFA! And what you said! 😂
 
#13

1world1love

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#13
Really? Tell us how deep Ole Miss is compared to UT. I'm not blaming you. UT being thin is a narrative Hubbs and Price have pushed into the consciousness of UT fans... but take an honest look at Ole Miss as the measuring stick rather than UGA or Bama which they're likely doing. If UT is thin... then so is Ole Miss and so is UK.

UT just had to go to its #3 star. Guy had played sparingly.... supposedly UT was thin in the secondary, right? Turnage responded with 14 tackles and 2 TFL's vs USCe.... and he's still the 3rd best option at star. UT has played 3 deep in their front 4. They have 5 guys currently healthy who have given them good minutes at ILB.

UT has played 5 deep at RB. They've chosen to go primarily with 4 WR's but guys like Keyton, Merrill, and Calloway have a lot of talent.

OL is the one group where UT appears to have only 7 guys that are really ready right now to give them quality minutes.

I am not comparing like for like, necessarily. I have no idea how their o-line stacks up against our d-line as far as depth goes, for instance. I also am not sure about their injuries. But we have not played a team that runs the tempo that they do. I assume we practice against it every week, but that is different to a real game for four quarters. And they may be as thin as us. I really do not know. But again, even if they are thin, they are still going to run the same tempo, and we know what that does to defenses.

That is why I said I am not 100% convinced. I may be 99% convinced, but our defense has not had to deal with tempo for 4 quarters at this point.

The flip side is that our offense will also wear their defense out. And their defense may be more suspect than ours. And you may be right. They may be as thin as us and they may be as likely to drop like flies on Saturday as we are. Also, us not having to travel is essentially having an extra day to heal up.

I would love to beat Ole Miss though, so I hope you are right.
 
#14

rocketskates

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#14
Heupel should pull out all the stops. Zero pressure for him in this game IMO. This win is a gravy game. We are already set up to go bowling which many talking heads thought wouldn’t happen at the beginning of the year. He’s already exceeding expectations.
 
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#17

sjt18

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#17
I am not comparing like for like, necessarily. I have no idea how their o-line stacks up against our d-line as far as depth goes, for instance. I also am not sure about their injuries. But we have not played a team that runs the tempo that they do. I assume we practice against it every week, but that is different to a real game for four quarters. And they may be as thin as us. I really do not know. But again, even if they are thin, they are still going to run the same tempo, and we know what that does to defenses.
Would it help to know that UT is deeper than they are on D and are better statistically?

The problem you have is you have to compare.

That is why I said I am not 100% convinced. I may be 99% convinced, but our defense has not had to deal with tempo for 4 quarters at this point.
Theirs hasn't either... and UT runs faster than they do.

The flip side is that our offense will also wear their defense out. And their defense may be more suspect than ours. And you may be right. They may be as thin as us and they may be as likely to drop like flies on Saturday as we are. Also, us not having to travel is essentially having an extra day to heal up.

I would love to beat Ole Miss though, so I hope you are right.
I'm not predicting a win. I'm not even trying to bust your chops personally. You're just falling into something that's been far too common this year. The idea that UT is "thin" has become imbedded in the fan psyche. Hubbs and Price in particular have pushed that idea and everyone else just kind of latched on in group think. No one ever asked, "Thin compared to who?". Thin compared to Bama, UGA, UF, and even TAM? Yes. Thin or untalented compared to Ole Miss, UK, and the rest? I need someone to prove that rather than just say it.

Not that long ago... UT was supposedly not as talented of deep as MU. That one I DID know. Yes. They had a 3 deep and several guys who had played. But they have significant talent holes because of Odom. USCe is a more talented team and especially on D but their O is bad from schemes to QB.
 
#19

sjt18

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#19
Ole Miss gave up 350 rushing yards to Arkansas. Thats why I think we're going to win. We should be able to run the ball.
Like most teams, the QB run gave them fits. I believe UT will be the 2nd team they've played with a true running QB. Assuming Small and Evans play, UT's 1/2 is better than Arkansas'.
 
#21

1world1love

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#21
Would it help to know that UT is deeper than they are on D and are better statistically?

The problem you have is you have to compare.
Maybe, but our D doesn't play their D. Our D plays their O and so on and so forth. I get that we are statistically better on D, but I am not sure the competition has been similar. Honestly, I haven't looked at it and don't care enough to.

Theirs hasn't either... and UT runs faster than they do.
Which is why I said that the flip side is that our O would wear them out too.


I'm not predicting a win. I'm not even trying to bust your chops personally. You're just falling into something that's been far too common this year. The idea that UT is "thin" has become imbedded in the fan psyche. Hubbs and Price in particular have pushed that idea and everyone else just kind of latched on in group think. No one ever asked, "Thin compared to who?". Thin compared to Bama, UGA, UF, and even TAM? Yes. Thin or untalented compared to Ole Miss, UK, and the rest? I need someone to prove that rather than just say it.
Fair enough, and no worries. You know I don't get worked up about being wrong. I think the "thin" issue has more to do with the unknowns more than reality. We just aren't entirely sure what kind of depth we may or may not have. Take Turnage as an example. I had no idea how he would play when forced into action. He looked great. We still don't know if that will be consistent. One game is not enough data. But he did look good so no reason to believe that he isn't capable. The same goes with the O-line. They looked suspect earlier, and especially the 2s and 3s. Some of those guys are playing a lot better. Still, the second half of the SC game showed some potential depth issues. There were more mistakes once we started subbing more and the level dropped off, and it did appear that the O-line and D-line groups got sluggish. Maybe to be expected, but still.

Also, for the record, I never said we were untalented compared to anybody. I actually like the talent level right now with the first team. I think we could improve here and there, but overall, I think we are on par with a lot of teams in the SEC and better than quite a few. With regards to Ole Miss, I think we match up with them pretty well at the skill positions. I just don't know enough about their O-line though.

I'll reiterate though, that the factor that seems important here to me is that Ole Miss played a tough game to the wire, while we coasted along. This sets up to be a great opportunity to get a win against a ranked opponent.
 
#22

DC_Vol

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#22
I don’t think it’s incorrect to say we lack quality depth in some places.

The most obvious to me is offensive line and quarterback (yes, 2nd string is a liability right now).

It also looks like our defense up front is tired in the second half. That’s a big concern for me with Ole Miss. If we don’t have a comfortable lead, they cannot afford to slow down the game in the second half, which is what I looks like JH likes to do.
 
#23

LTVol

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#23
Really? Tell us how deep Ole Miss is compared to UT. I'm not blaming you. UT being thin is a narrative Hubbs and Price have pushed into the consciousness of UT fans... but take an honest look at Ole Miss as the measuring stick rather than UGA or Bama which they're likely doing. If UT is thin... then so is Ole Miss and so is UK.

UT just had to go to its #3 star. Guy had played sparingly.... supposedly UT was thin in the secondary, right? Turnage responded with 14 tackles and 2 TFL's vs USCe.... and he's still the 3rd best option at star. UT has played 3 deep in their front 4. They have 5 guys currently healthy who have given them good minutes at ILB.

UT has played 5 deep at RB. They've chosen to go primarily with 4 WR's but guys like Keyton, Merrill, and Calloway have a lot of talent.

OL is the one group where UT appears to have only 7 guys that are really ready right now to give them quality minutes.
Neither Ole Miss or KY is limited to just 71 scholarship players, and neither lost 30 players to the transfer portal. E have played 5 deep at RB, but currently #s 1 & 2 are both injured (status for Sat Not known), and one of the 5 is a walk on. Our most talented LB is out for the season. Our best center is still qluestionable, and DL is dealing with multiple injuries. I don't know how anyone can question that we are thin in terms of depth. I still think we have a chance to beat Ole Miss, but that's based on the hope that we get some of the dinged up guys back on the field by Sat (Evans and/or Small, Elijah Simmons, Theo Jackson, etc.)
Lack of depth will become more of a problem as the season wears on.
 
#24

sjt18

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#24
Maybe, but our D doesn't play their D. Our D plays their O and so on and so forth. I get that we are statistically better on D, but I am not sure the competition has been similar. Honestly, I haven't looked at it and don't care enough to.
Similar enough when you account for how completely Bama dominated them. UT's OOC schedule was better than theirs. UT competed with UF until mistakes caught up with the Vols. Ole Miss was dominated from the start by Bama... who UF was able to push. Arkansas is a good team. They played neck and neck. MU and USCe aren't as good... but UT did blow them out.

Of course UT's D doesn't play theirs. But the O's are very similar in production and capabilities... even style in a lot of ways. So if you have two roughly equal O's a one D is better than the other....

Fair enough, and no worries. You know I don't get worked up about being wrong.
No offence intended. I really like the banter. I've been wrong plenty but try to be informed even in error... try to look at as many angles as possible. If I were approaching Ole Miss as a DC then I'm worried about as much about Corral breaking the pocket as I am about him throwing. Drummond is a good WR. Sanders may have a day... but I'm not as worried about him. He doesn't seem to reliably get open. Mingo is out... and was their 2nd best WR if not #1.

Sanders and Drummond combined for just 4 catches vs Ark... both had long TD's on blown coverages. Sanders had another deep ball for 59. Drummond, their #1 guy, had one more catch for 11 yds. Corral only had 287 yds in a game like that. Both O's just flat ran over the opposing D running the ball.

If UT has a strength on D... it is probably defending the run.

I think the "thin" issue has more to do with the unknowns more than reality. We just aren't entirely sure what kind of depth we may or may not have. Take Turnage as an example. I had no idea how he would play when forced into action. He looked great. We still don't know if that will be consistent. One game is not enough data. But he did look good so no reason to believe that he isn't capable. The same goes with the O-line. They looked suspect earlier, and especially the 2s and 3s. Some of those guys are playing a lot better. Still, the second half of the SC game showed some potential depth issues. There were more mistakes once we started subbing more and the level dropped off, and it did appear that the O-line and D-line groups got sluggish. Maybe to be expected, but still.
IMO it goes back to all the "lost players". That became a narrative for the UT media. It didn't matter who has been developed or who was brought in who has helped... UT must be thin because they lost X players. Again... not many seemed to take the time to look at what UT still had instead of focusing on what they lost.

Now this could play into Heupel's favor. They set the bar pretty low. According to 247's team talent composite, UT has more talent than UK or Ole Miss. That's whole team talent according to their rankings. So it really shouldn't be all that surprising when a guy like Turnage kind of "shows up" after being coached up for about 10 weeks now.

Also, for the record, I never said we were untalented compared to anybody. I actually like the talent level right now with the first team. I think we could improve here and there, but overall, I think we are on par with a lot of teams in the SEC and better than quite a few. With regards to Ole Miss, I think we match up with them pretty well at the skill positions. I just don't know enough about their O-line though.
They're similar across the board on O. QB's are close but Corral is a little better. I think UT has a fairly significant advantage at RB if everyone is healthy. Neither OL is dominant but both coaches scheme in a way that takes pressure off the OL. Heupel even mentioned that today. Both teams throw quick passes wide to help open run lanes and to force teams away from loading the box.

I'll reiterate though, that the factor that seems important here to me is that Ole Miss played a tough game to the wire, while we coasted along. This sets up to be a great opportunity to get a win against a ranked opponent.
It is a good opportunity. I think the teams are close and similar in a lot of ways. I think a full Neyland makes a pretty big difference since they depend on communication and snap cadence as much as UT does. Getting or not getting Ealy back could be a big deal for them.[/quote]
 
#25

SN-A-C Orange

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#25
UT Defense > Ole Miss Defense
UT Offense ? Ole Miss Offense (This one is hard to gauge statistically.) @LWSVOL what do you say ... I am sure you have watched everyone of their games. :^)))))))
UT QB < Ole Miss QB (At first blush.)
UT Crowd is the 'extra man' that makes it hard to hear the signals.
Take care of the ball and .... The first team to 50 wins this game!
 

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