Has The Game Really Changed THAT Much? (For Statistic Lovers)

[rocytop2624]

I would suspect some coaches are stuck in the 2000's and the coaches that have adapted and took advantage of the rule changes are on top. We are still trying to play 3 yards and a cloud of dust or run,,,,run.... 3rd & 9+ then pass.
These type of teams are dragging down the O averages of the teams that evolved and are on top.

I have heard Pruitt say at halftime a bunch that we need more explosive plays.

 

[casual-observer]

Cold water committee...

Great post and effort. But three data points are not enough to determine “change”. Was 2012 a low year? Was 2000 a high year?

Only by looking at all of the data points in between can we determine trends.

 

[Jackcrevol]

So, I just sat here and watched Alabama completely dominate Ohio State, and I thought to myself, "Man, the kind of offenses we are seeing these days is incredible." And it's true. Seeing Mac Jones throw 5 TDs is absolutely bizarre. And to see how Saban has gone from tough nose D to pass happy offense is a true shift, and it speaks to his flexibility.

So, I wondered to myself, "Has the game really changed?" "Has the SEC changed that much?" "How has the game changed the past 20 years since Fulmer was coach?" And I picked 3 points. The year 2000 (the furthest I could go back), 2012 (a midpoint), and 2020.

Total Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 363 yards/game
2012 - 401 yards/game
2020 - 411 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 13.2% increase

That wasn't really a huge increase to me, since I thought "Well, the hurry up offense is making us run more plays, right?"

Offensive Plays Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 68.6 plays/game
2012 - 67.9 plays/game
2020 - 69.5 plays/game
Change from 2012 to 2020 = 2.3% increase

That really stumped me, because I thought offenses had changed and blown up so much in the SEC. It went from a run heavy league, to a passing league, right?

Rush Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 140.5 yards/game
2012 - 166 yards/game
2020 - 152 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 8.1% increase

So, it seems like the biggest change in the run offense was between 2000 and 2012, but even in 2020, we are still running for more yards per game than we were in 2020, though not as much as 2012. Does that mean we are handing the ball off less?

Rushing Attempts Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 35/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 35.5/game
Change from 2020 to 2000 = Attempting 0.5 attempts more in 2020 than in 2000.

So, then, the question is, what about passing? Because we have seen a lot more passing in recent years, surely those numbers are different, right?

Total Passing Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 223 yards/game
2012 - 233.9 yards/game
2020 - 258 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 - 15.6% Increase in Passing offense

Total Passing Attempts Per Game In the SEC:
2000- 32.6/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 33.5/game
Change from 2000-2020: 0.9 more passing attempts per game

So, let me sum it up then.

In 2020, each SEC team averaged about 50 more yards than they did in 2000 (I know Mizzou and A&M weren't in in 2000). We are running about 1.5 more plays per game than we did in 2000. We are running the ball as often and for as many yards as we did in 2000, give or take a few yards a game. We are throwing the ball just as many times per game, and we are doing it for only about 35 more yards a game more than 2000. To me, that's not a huge difference offensively.

But look at the defensive numbers.


Total Defense Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 336 yards allowed/game
2012 - 363 yards allowed/game (Thank you, Sal Sunseri, we were BY FAR the worst by 50 yards a game)
2020 - 415 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Defenses are allowing 23.5% more yardage per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Rushing Defense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 128.75 yards allowed/game
2012 - 140 yards allowed/game
2020 - 153.5 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 19.2% more rushing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Passing Defense Per Game In the SEC:
2000 - 190.25 yards allowed/game
2012 - 221 yards allowed/game
2020 - 261 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 37.1% more passing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

So, have SEC defenses just gotten worse over the years? What is happening?

Total Defense changed 8% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 14% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Rushing Defense changed 8.7% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 9.6% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Passing Defense changed 16% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 18% from 2012 to 2020.

What is my hypothesis?

Targeting changed the game.

I picked 2000 because that was far back as I could get stats. I picked the year 2012 because that was the last year before targeting was introduced as a rule calling for ejection. And you can see the change.

It is simply not fact that offense has changed. It hasn't. On average, teams are still running just as many plays for as many yards. We are still running and throwing the ball with the same number of attempts and efficiency as at any time in the past 20 years. While we may be finding new ways to do that, we are ending up with the same results we always have.

But defense is no longer the same. It has become nearly impossible to play pass defense anymore due to targeting. Again, between the time targeting became a rule in 2013, defenses have increased the yards they allowed through the air by 18%, and that's with teams attempting only 0.9 more attempts per game then they did in 2012.

But, I say all of that to say this. We say very frequently that "the game has passed them by," when according to the numbers, the game that we play is the very same game we have played for 20 years. Spread or Pro-Style, Hurry Up or traditional, the numbers say we are still landing in the same spots historically.

The difference between the teams that do well and the teams that don't are the teams that can win where the weakness is. Offense doesn't ever have to worry about targeting. That's why you so often see huge offenses. There is nothing special to exploit anymore on an offense. There is no liability there.

But every single defensive player on every single snap and hit has to be mindful of not just hitting, but how they hit. And that automatically gives a tactical advantage to the offense.

Therefore, as simple as it sounds, I think the key to success in today's game is this:

Stop the explosive play on defense, and cause the explosive play on offense.

While targeting has made this infinitely harder for defenses, it is essential to do. But "the explosive play" which I define as anything more than 10 yards is key to championship winning teams.

Consider last year. Football Outsiders assigned a value of "Explosive Drive Rate" to teams. They based this on the percentage of drives that averaged at least 10 yards per play.

In 2019, the top 4 teams in Explosive Drive Rates? LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson. Sound familiar? Those were the exact 4 teams that made the playoffs.

The explosive play is what has changed in the SEC. And the explosive play is the result not of a change of offense, but a change in defense, caused by the onset of the Targeting Rule.

Why will Pruitt not win here? Because Pruitt does not value the explosive play.

LSU last year had an Explosive Drive Rate of 0.356, the highest in CFB. Ours? 0.152, which was good for 47th in the nation. But keep in mind, that was last year with Jauan and Marquez. I do not have the Explosive Drive Rate for 2020 yet. I am positive it is much worse.

Until we have a QB that we have confidence in his ability to throw the ball downfield, as well as Wide Receivers that are able to turn short/medium passes into longer gains, we will continue to be middle of the pack. Success in today's game is NOT about dominant defensive lines. Nor is it about power running backs. Nor is it about Time of Possession. It's not even about turnovers anymore. While it is true that getting sacks and pressure on a QB, or turnovers, or having a good run game is nice, it is not what wins games and championships anymore. It is the ability to throw downfield, and the ability to create space for "explosive plays," AND your ability to stop them. The Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Buffalo Bills even, what do they have in common? They all have QBs that are not afraid to throw the ball downfield, and they all have wide receivers that are not only great at making the catch, but making the "first" guy miss and getting in space. They are all experts at the explosive play.

Anyways, I am sorry for the long post, hopefully you stats nerds like me enjoyed. I enjoyed doing the research. I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions.

Go Big Orange til the day I die.

-TNHopeful505

didnt read. but it has changed. money has given more power to conferences who now wield all the chips. The NCAA is just a fly buzzing about.

however schollie limitations limit ability to flip a roster. smaller schools who try to compete or big schools in geographically talent poor regions have trouble getting off the mat.

I think CFB is making a huge mistake with transfer rule. And, it will show as many are apathetic to its already predictable and stale outcomes.

I have considered paying for EPL. And will focus more on Titans. That is not me giving up, its just to say i have other interests.

 

[midtnvol2]

So, I just sat here and watched Alabama completely dominate Ohio State, and I thought to myself, "Man, the kind of offenses we are seeing these days is incredible." And it's true. Seeing Mac Jones throw 5 TDs is absolutely bizarre. And to see how Saban has gone from tough nose D to pass happy offense is a true shift, and it speaks to his flexibility.

So, I wondered to myself, "Has the game really changed?" "Has the SEC changed that much?" "How has the game changed the past 20 years since Fulmer was coach?" And I picked 3 points. The year 2000 (the furthest I could go back), 2012 (a midpoint), and 2020.

Total Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 363 yards/game
2012 - 401 yards/game
2020 - 411 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 13.2% increase

That wasn't really a huge increase to me, since I thought "Well, the hurry up offense is making us run more plays, right?"

Offensive Plays Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 68.6 plays/game
2012 - 67.9 plays/game
2020 - 69.5 plays/game
Change from 2012 to 2020 = 2.3% increase

That really stumped me, because I thought offenses had changed and blown up so much in the SEC. It went from a run heavy league, to a passing league, right?

Rush Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 140.5 yards/game
2012 - 166 yards/game
2020 - 152 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 8.1% increase

So, it seems like the biggest change in the run offense was between 2000 and 2012, but even in 2020, we are still running for more yards per game than we were in 2020, though not as much as 2012. Does that mean we are handing the ball off less?

Rushing Attempts Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 35/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 35.5/game
Change from 2020 to 2000 = Attempting 0.5 attempts more in 2020 than in 2000.

So, then, the question is, what about passing? Because we have seen a lot more passing in recent years, surely those numbers are different, right?

Total Passing Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 223 yards/game
2012 - 233.9 yards/game
2020 - 258 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 - 15.6% Increase in Passing offense

Total Passing Attempts Per Game In the SEC:
2000- 32.6/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 33.5/game
Change from 2000-2020: 0.9 more passing attempts per game

So, let me sum it up then.

In 2020, each SEC team averaged about 50 more yards than they did in 2000 (I know Mizzou and A&M weren't in in 2000). We are running about 1.5 more plays per game than we did in 2000. We are running the ball as often and for as many yards as we did in 2000, give or take a few yards a game. We are throwing the ball just as many times per game, and we are doing it for only about 35 more yards a game more than 2000. To me, that's not a huge difference offensively.

But look at the defensive numbers.


Total Defense Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 336 yards allowed/game
2012 - 363 yards allowed/game (Thank you, Sal Sunseri, we were BY FAR the worst by 50 yards a game)
2020 - 415 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Defenses are allowing 23.5% more yardage per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Rushing Defense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 128.75 yards allowed/game
2012 - 140 yards allowed/game
2020 - 153.5 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 19.2% more rushing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Passing Defense Per Game In the SEC:
2000 - 190.25 yards allowed/game
2012 - 221 yards allowed/game
2020 - 261 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 37.1% more passing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

So, have SEC defenses just gotten worse over the years? What is happening?

Total Defense changed 8% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 14% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Rushing Defense changed 8.7% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 9.6% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Passing Defense changed 16% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 18% from 2012 to 2020.

What is my hypothesis?

Targeting changed the game.

I picked 2000 because that was far back as I could get stats. I picked the year 2012 because that was the last year before targeting was introduced as a rule calling for ejection. And you can see the change.

It is simply not fact that offense has changed. It hasn't. On average, teams are still running just as many plays for as many yards. We are still running and throwing the ball with the same number of attempts and efficiency as at any time in the past 20 years. While we may be finding new ways to do that, we are ending up with the same results we always have.

But defense is no longer the same. It has become nearly impossible to play pass defense anymore due to targeting. Again, between the time targeting became a rule in 2013, defenses have increased the yards they allowed through the air by 18%, and that's with teams attempting only 0.9 more attempts per game then they did in 2012.

But, I say all of that to say this. We say very frequently that "the game has passed them by," when according to the numbers, the game that we play is the very same game we have played for 20 years. Spread or Pro-Style, Hurry Up or traditional, the numbers say we are still landing in the same spots historically.

The difference between the teams that do well and the teams that don't are the teams that can win where the weakness is. Offense doesn't ever have to worry about targeting. That's why you so often see huge offenses. There is nothing special to exploit anymore on an offense. There is no liability there.

But every single defensive player on every single snap and hit has to be mindful of not just hitting, but how they hit. And that automatically gives a tactical advantage to the offense.

Therefore, as simple as it sounds, I think the key to success in today's game is this:

Stop the explosive play on defense, and cause the explosive play on offense.

While targeting has made this infinitely harder for defenses, it is essential to do. But "the explosive play" which I define as anything more than 10 yards is key to championship winning teams.

Consider last year. Football Outsiders assigned a value of "Explosive Drive Rate" to teams. They based this on the percentage of drives that averaged at least 10 yards per play.

In 2019, the top 4 teams in Explosive Drive Rates? LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson. Sound familiar? Those were the exact 4 teams that made the playoffs.

The explosive play is what has changed in the SEC. And the explosive play is the result not of a change of offense, but a change in defense, caused by the onset of the Targeting Rule.

Why will Pruitt not win here? Because Pruitt does not value the explosive play.

LSU last year had an Explosive Drive Rate of 0.356, the highest in CFB. Ours? 0.152, which was good for 47th in the nation. But keep in mind, that was last year with Jauan and Marquez. I do not have the Explosive Drive Rate for 2020 yet. I am positive it is much worse.

Until we have a QB that we have confidence in his ability to throw the ball downfield, as well as Wide Receivers that are able to turn short/medium passes into longer gains, we will continue to be middle of the pack. Success in today's game is NOT about dominant defensive lines. Nor is it about power running backs. Nor is it about Time of Possession. It's not even about turnovers anymore. While it is true that getting sacks and pressure on a QB, or turnovers, or having a good run game is nice, it is not what wins games and championships anymore. It is the ability to throw downfield, and the ability to create space for "explosive plays," AND your ability to stop them. The Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Buffalo Bills even, what do they have in common? They all have QBs that are not afraid to throw the ball downfield, and they all have wide receivers that are not only great at making the catch, but making the "first" guy miss and getting in space. They are all experts at the explosive play.

Anyways, I am sorry for the long post, hopefully you stats nerds like me enjoyed. I enjoyed doing the research. I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions.

Go Big Orange til the day I die.

-TNHopeful505

You could have saved yourself hours of typing by simply stating “ college football has followed the NFL with rule changes that now benefit the offense to create more scoring.” Defensive secondary can’t sniff a WR without it being a penalty.

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

Absolutely. Finding loopholes in the rules is a way to use them to your advantage and offset that they keep you down. Perfect example was Vrabel running out the clock on Belichick last year in the playoffs. Used his own trick against him and really hurt him with the rules. Hurry up's have been used really well, but I think aside from wearing out the defense and occasional offside draw and the substitution confusion, they have not drastically changed the game. Just my opinion. Again it all is about "what can set up the big play?"

I agree with that and your research bears it out that the game hasn't changed drastically in 20 years im terms of output, just how they are going about to get it.

Think my point helps explain why you don't see a drastic increase in number of plays run mainly.

My biggest gripe on Pruitts recruiting and why I think it is drastically overrated is the fact that he isn't bringing in ANY of these explosive playmakers you alluded to earlier.

Eric Gray has been the only player that really fits that category and RB is easier to scheme against defensively IMO.

The old adage goes...adapt or die.

Well, Pruitt and the Vols are learning it the hard way.

 

[Firebirdparts]

True. It's clearly not played all that differently. "Drastic" is very very far away from what we actually have. Scores are a bit higher.

 

[McDad]

I greatly appreciate your work here, OP. Nice contribution to the board. To some, maybe to the people who matter, offense and scoring points is exciting. I find the drama of the game to be most intriguing. When a team is scoring on 80% of possessions, the uncertainty is removed. The game becomes a high scoring bore. For example, last night, once Bama goes up by one TD the game is out of reach and the drama is removed.
I wish they would balance out the rules which would balance the game. It will never happen but prohibiting any offensive player from moving once set would help. Or, maybe the defense should be allowed 12 players.

 

[rikberry31]

So, I just sat here and watched Alabama completely dominate Ohio State, and I thought to myself, "Man, the kind of offenses we are seeing these days is incredible." And it's true. Seeing Mac Jones throw 5 TDs is absolutely bizarre. And to see how Saban has gone from tough nose D to pass happy offense is a true shift, and it speaks to his flexibility.

So, I wondered to myself, "Has the game really changed?" "Has the SEC changed that much?" "How has the game changed the past 20 years since Fulmer was coach?" And I picked 3 points. The year 2000 (the furthest I could go back), 2012 (a midpoint), and 2020.

Total Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 363 yards/game
2012 - 401 yards/game
2020 - 411 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 13.2% increase

That wasn't really a huge increase to me, since I thought "Well, the hurry up offense is making us run more plays, right?"

Offensive Plays Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 68.6 plays/game
2012 - 67.9 plays/game
2020 - 69.5 plays/game
Change from 2012 to 2020 = 2.3% increase

That really stumped me, because I thought offenses had changed and blown up so much in the SEC. It went from a run heavy league, to a passing league, right?

Rush Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 140.5 yards/game
2012 - 166 yards/game
2020 - 152 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 8.1% increase

So, it seems like the biggest change in the run offense was between 2000 and 2012, but even in 2020, we are still running for more yards per game than we were in 2020, though not as much as 2012. Does that mean we are handing the ball off less?

Rushing Attempts Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 35/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 35.5/game
Change from 2020 to 2000 = Attempting 0.5 attempts more in 2020 than in 2000.

So, then, the question is, what about passing? Because we have seen a lot more passing in recent years, surely those numbers are different, right?

Total Passing Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 223 yards/game
2012 - 233.9 yards/game
2020 - 258 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 - 15.6% Increase in Passing offense

Total Passing Attempts Per Game In the SEC:
2000- 32.6/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 33.5/game
Change from 2000-2020: 0.9 more passing attempts per game

So, let me sum it up then.

In 2020, each SEC team averaged about 50 more yards than they did in 2000 (I know Mizzou and A&M weren't in in 2000). We are running about 1.5 more plays per game than we did in 2000. We are running the ball as often and for as many yards as we did in 2000, give or take a few yards a game. We are throwing the ball just as many times per game, and we are doing it for only about 35 more yards a game more than 2000. To me, that's not a huge difference offensively.

But look at the defensive numbers.


Total Defense Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 336 yards allowed/game
2012 - 363 yards allowed/game (Thank you, Sal Sunseri, we were BY FAR the worst by 50 yards a game)
2020 - 415 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Defenses are allowing 23.5% more yardage per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Rushing Defense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 128.75 yards allowed/game
2012 - 140 yards allowed/game
2020 - 153.5 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 19.2% more rushing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Passing Defense Per Game In the SEC:
2000 - 190.25 yards allowed/game
2012 - 221 yards allowed/game
2020 - 261 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 37.1% more passing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

So, have SEC defenses just gotten worse over the years? What is happening?

Total Defense changed 8% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 14% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Rushing Defense changed 8.7% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 9.6% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Passing Defense changed 16% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 18% from 2012 to 2020.

What is my hypothesis?

Targeting changed the game.

I picked 2000 because that was far back as I could get stats. I picked the year 2012 because that was the last year before targeting was introduced as a rule calling for ejection. And you can see the change.

It is simply not fact that offense has changed. It hasn't. On average, teams are still running just as many plays for as many yards. We are still running and throwing the ball with the same number of attempts and efficiency as at any time in the past 20 years. While we may be finding new ways to do that, we are ending up with the same results we always have.

But defense is no longer the same. It has become nearly impossible to play pass defense anymore due to targeting. Again, between the time targeting became a rule in 2013, defenses have increased the yards they allowed through the air by 18%, and that's with teams attempting only 0.9 more attempts per game then they did in 2012.

But, I say all of that to say this. We say very frequently that "the game has passed them by," when according to the numbers, the game that we play is the very same game we have played for 20 years. Spread or Pro-Style, Hurry Up or traditional, the numbers say we are still landing in the same spots historically.

The difference between the teams that do well and the teams that don't are the teams that can win where the weakness is. Offense doesn't ever have to worry about targeting. That's why you so often see huge offenses. There is nothing special to exploit anymore on an offense. There is no liability there.

But every single defensive player on every single snap and hit has to be mindful of not just hitting, but how they hit. And that automatically gives a tactical advantage to the offense.

Therefore, as simple as it sounds, I think the key to success in today's game is this:

Stop the explosive play on defense, and cause the explosive play on offense.

While targeting has made this infinitely harder for defenses, it is essential to do. But "the explosive play" which I define as anything more than 10 yards is key to championship winning teams.

Consider last year. Football Outsiders assigned a value of "Explosive Drive Rate" to teams. They based this on the percentage of drives that averaged at least 10 yards per play.

In 2019, the top 4 teams in Explosive Drive Rates? LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson. Sound familiar? Those were the exact 4 teams that made the playoffs.

The explosive play is what has changed in the SEC. And the explosive play is the result not of a change of offense, but a change in defense, caused by the onset of the Targeting Rule.

Why will Pruitt not win here? Because Pruitt does not value the explosive play.

LSU last year had an Explosive Drive Rate of 0.356, the highest in CFB. Ours? 0.152, which was good for 47th in the nation. But keep in mind, that was last year with Jauan and Marquez. I do not have the Explosive Drive Rate for 2020 yet. I am positive it is much worse.

Until we have a QB that we have confidence in his ability to throw the ball downfield, as well as Wide Receivers that are able to turn short/medium passes into longer gains, we will continue to be middle of the pack. Success in today's game is NOT about dominant defensive lines. Nor is it about power running backs. Nor is it about Time of Possession. It's not even about turnovers anymore. While it is true that getting sacks and pressure on a QB, or turnovers, or having a good run game is nice, it is not what wins games and championships anymore. It is the ability to throw downfield, and the ability to create space for "explosive plays," AND your ability to stop them. The Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Buffalo Bills even, what do they have in common? They all have QBs that are not afraid to throw the ball downfield, and they all have wide receivers that are not only great at making the catch, but making the "first" guy miss and getting in space. They are all experts at the explosive play.

Anyways, I am sorry for the long post, hopefully you stats nerds like me enjoyed. I enjoyed doing the research. I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions.

Go Big Orange til the day I die.

-TNHopeful505

I agree all the game is much more in favor of the offense in today's. Targeting is one but another major advantage for the offense is that the o-line men can be 3 yards down field on an RPO. It basically lets the lineman straight up run block on a passing play.

 

[VolArmy74]

There were also major changes to kickoff rules. Meaning teams on average start with much better field position than prior times. That leaves fewer yards to gain on offense before scoring. The offensive output increase skews higher at that point.

 

[Carp]

50 extra yards on average per game is pretty significant. Going by the rankings in 2020, 411 ypg and 363 ypg is roughly the difference between the 50th ranked offense and the 91st ranked offense. You're putting a ton of weight into targeting, when in reality the yards per play have gone up nearly 13%. That's reflective of the style of play, and perhaps better athletes.

The offenses are certainly much better now than they were 20 years ago.

 

[VolPack22]

NCAA went from around 10-15 teams averaging 35+ points/game to around 20-25 teams. Those extra 50 yards/game may not seem like a lot but that could mean the difference in scoring an additional 3-7 points/game per team.

 

[JoAllan]

For 1 you should have included points per game......that’s probably the biggest metric for determining a good offense.........and probably even a bad or good defense.

Also these things a very fluid over the years. You went back 20 years.......that’s probably long enough the the fluidity to circle back around.

“If” you want to be good in the SEC right now......for the most part you need a good O......no matter how you want to slice it.

Average NC winning game score for the past 7 seasons = 41 points

Average NC winning game score for the 7 seasons prior to those (above) = 31 points.

Pretty big difference looking at 7 years to 7 years vs simply 20 years ago.

 

[OrangeTsar]

You're right. People love a great defense, but they wont buy a ticket to see it. But a great offense will put butts in the seats.

I for one would still pay big bucks to sit in the stands and watch a defense that hold opponents to 10 points game or less. As long as we are scoring 11 or more and winning most of them

 

[sechamp2012]

I for one would still pay big bucks to sit in the stands and watch a defense that hold opponents to 10 points game or less. As long as we are scoring 11 or more and winning most of them

You & I would pay as long as it is our team and we win in a boring game. ESPN , CBS, FOX & NBC etc..do not pay millions to satisfy one fan base per game. They want eyes on the game. The fanatic & drive by viewers = $$$$$ TV contracts , commercial $$$$$
ergo the Offense slanted rules. Governed by the $$$$$ makers IMO.

 

[OrangeTsar]

You & I would pay as long as it is our team and we win in a boring game. ESPN , CBS, FOX & NBC etc..do not pay millions to satisfy one fan base per game. They want eyes on the game. The fanatic & drive by viewers = $$$$$ TV contracts , commercial $$$$$
ergo the Offense slanted rules. Governed by the $$$$$ makers IMO.

I hear ya, but to me, the perfect football game is a 9 to 6 mudbath during a downpour where the game winning field goal is kicked from 45 yards out as time expires.
Plus, low scoring boredom never stopped soccer (Fußball) from becoming and remaining the most popular team Sport on the Planet. When scores are infrequent, that makes them that much more enjoyable when they do occur

 

[BDVol]

Here a stat, we suck
Offense sucks
Defense SUCKS
Coaching staff SUCKS SUCKS
Administration SUCKS SUCKS SUCKS

 

[Volintheswamp]

"Targeting" has totally neutered defenses which now stresses the importance of offenses capable of exploiting this.

 

[J C Higgins]

So, I just sat here and watched Alabama completely dominate Ohio State, and I thought to myself, "Man, the kind of offenses we are seeing these days is incredible." And it's true. Seeing Mac Jones throw 5 TDs is absolutely bizarre. And to see how Saban has gone from tough nose D to pass happy offense is a true shift, and it speaks to his flexibility.

So, I wondered to myself, "Has the game really changed?" "Has the SEC changed that much?" "How has the game changed the past 20 years since Fulmer was coach?" And I picked 3 points. The year 2000 (the furthest I could go back), 2012 (a midpoint), and 2020.

Total Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 363 yards/game
2012 - 401 yards/game
2020 - 411 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 13.2% increase

That wasn't really a huge increase to me, since I thought "Well, the hurry up offense is making us run more plays, right?"

Offensive Plays Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 68.6 plays/game
2012 - 67.9 plays/game
2020 - 69.5 plays/game
Change from 2012 to 2020 = 2.3% increase

That really stumped me, because I thought offenses had changed and blown up so much in the SEC. It went from a run heavy league, to a passing league, right?

Rush Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 140.5 yards/game
2012 - 166 yards/game
2020 - 152 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 = 8.1% increase

So, it seems like the biggest change in the run offense was between 2000 and 2012, but even in 2020, we are still running for more yards per game than we were in 2020, though not as much as 2012. Does that mean we are handing the ball off less?

Rushing Attempts Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 35/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 35.5/game
Change from 2020 to 2000 = Attempting 0.5 attempts more in 2020 than in 2000.

So, then, the question is, what about passing? Because we have seen a lot more passing in recent years, surely those numbers are different, right?

Total Passing Offense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 223 yards/game
2012 - 233.9 yards/game
2020 - 258 yards/game
Change from 2000 to 2020 - 15.6% Increase in Passing offense

Total Passing Attempts Per Game In the SEC:
2000- 32.6/game
2012 - 33/game
2020 - 33.5/game
Change from 2000-2020: 0.9 more passing attempts per game

So, let me sum it up then.

In 2020, each SEC team averaged about 50 more yards than they did in 2000 (I know Mizzou and A&M weren't in in 2000). We are running about 1.5 more plays per game than we did in 2000. We are running the ball as often and for as many yards as we did in 2000, give or take a few yards a game. We are throwing the ball just as many times per game, and we are doing it for only about 35 more yards a game more than 2000. To me, that's not a huge difference offensively.

But look at the defensive numbers.


Total Defense Per Game In The SEC:
2000 - 336 yards allowed/game
2012 - 363 yards allowed/game (Thank you, Sal Sunseri, we were BY FAR the worst by 50 yards a game)
2020 - 415 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Defenses are allowing 23.5% more yardage per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Rushing Defense Per Game in the SEC:
2000 - 128.75 yards allowed/game
2012 - 140 yards allowed/game
2020 - 153.5 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 19.2% more rushing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

Total Passing Defense Per Game In the SEC:
2000 - 190.25 yards allowed/game
2012 - 221 yards allowed/game
2020 - 261 yards allowed/game
Change from 2000 to 2020: Teams are allowing 37.1% more passing yards per game in 2020 than they did 20 years ago.

So, have SEC defenses just gotten worse over the years? What is happening?

Total Defense changed 8% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 14% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Rushing Defense changed 8.7% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 9.6% from 2012 to 2020.
Total Passing Defense changed 16% from 2000 to 2012. It has changed 18% from 2012 to 2020.

What is my hypothesis?

Targeting changed the game.

I picked 2000 because that was far back as I could get stats. I picked the year 2012 because that was the last year before targeting was introduced as a rule calling for ejection. And you can see the change.

It is simply not fact that offense has changed. It hasn't. On average, teams are still running just as many plays for as many yards. We are still running and throwing the ball with the same number of attempts and efficiency as at any time in the past 20 years. While we may be finding new ways to do that, we are ending up with the same results we always have.

But defense is no longer the same. It has become nearly impossible to play pass defense anymore due to targeting. Again, between the time targeting became a rule in 2013, defenses have increased the yards they allowed through the air by 18%, and that's with teams attempting only 0.9 more attempts per game then they did in 2012.

But, I say all of that to say this. We say very frequently that "the game has passed them by," when according to the numbers, the game that we play is the very same game we have played for 20 years. Spread or Pro-Style, Hurry Up or traditional, the numbers say we are still landing in the same spots historically.

The difference between the teams that do well and the teams that don't are the teams that can win where the weakness is. Offense doesn't ever have to worry about targeting. That's why you so often see huge offenses. There is nothing special to exploit anymore on an offense. There is no liability there.

But every single defensive player on every single snap and hit has to be mindful of not just hitting, but how they hit. And that automatically gives a tactical advantage to the offense.

Therefore, as simple as it sounds, I think the key to success in today's game is this:

Stop the explosive play on defense, and cause the explosive play on offense.

While targeting has made this infinitely harder for defenses, it is essential to do. But "the explosive play" which I define as anything more than 10 yards is key to championship winning teams.

Consider last year. Football Outsiders assigned a value of "Explosive Drive Rate" to teams. They based this on the percentage of drives that averaged at least 10 yards per play.

In 2019, the top 4 teams in Explosive Drive Rates? LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson. Sound familiar? Those were the exact 4 teams that made the playoffs.

The explosive play is what has changed in the SEC. And the explosive play is the result not of a change of offense, but a change in defense, caused by the onset of the Targeting Rule.

Why will Pruitt not win here? Because Pruitt does not value the explosive play.

LSU last year had an Explosive Drive Rate of 0.356, the highest in CFB. Ours? 0.152, which was good for 47th in the nation. But keep in mind, that was last year with Jauan and Marquez. I do not have the Explosive Drive Rate for 2020 yet. I am positive it is much worse.

Until we have a QB that we have confidence in his ability to throw the ball downfield, as well as Wide Receivers that are able to turn short/medium passes into longer gains, we will continue to be middle of the pack. Success in today's game is NOT about dominant defensive lines. Nor is it about power running backs. Nor is it about Time of Possession. It's not even about turnovers anymore. While it is true that getting sacks and pressure on a QB, or turnovers, or having a good run game is nice, it is not what wins games and championships anymore. It is the ability to throw downfield, and the ability to create space for "explosive plays," AND your ability to stop them. The Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Buffalo Bills even, what do they have in common? They all have QBs that are not afraid to throw the ball downfield, and they all have wide receivers that are not only great at making the catch, but making the "first" guy miss and getting in space. They are all experts at the explosive play.

Anyways, I am sorry for the long post, hopefully you stats nerds like me enjoyed. I enjoyed doing the research. I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions.

Go Big Orange til the day I die.

-TNHopeful505

From an old guy.....JMO.....changing the rules to allow offensive linemen to extend their arms (what amounts to legal holding) changed the game for the worse in my opinion. And the newer rules about QB protection etc. have tilted the game even more in favor of the offense.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Just as many folks love good defense as offense. Heck Saban is a defensive coach at heart, the game is still won at the LOS. If you don't have he LOS you aren't going to win. Bama still runs the rock with big backs and have balance. By balance I mean if you play the pass the will run it at you, play the run they will pass it on you. Defensively they were young but they got tougher as the year went. They pretty much stifled OSU. Many of these spread teams have weak running games and small guys at the LOS, this will not win in the SEC. It's hard to stop everything as bama has it. Also a thing to watch as it is already happening, teams that go small and fast on defense to stop these passing games and now teams like the Titans and Bama's get the big power backs and say okay deal with this. The good thing about football the more things change they stay the same. BALANCE and a great LOS always wins. Power backs are coming back, let these small corners get theirs. Tennessee needs to stop with the scat backs, you need to be big and fast. POWER BACK U, not scat back U!

 

[sechamp2012]

One rule I understand to a point then it loses me. Like if you hit or tap a QB helmet , penalty. If you facemask ,penalty on D. If a D lineman pushes up on O line helmet , penalty. All favoring the O. For example if Derrick Henry goes around the end and stiff arms someone to facemask and about takes his head off, it's great play. I really thought these penalties were to protect the players but maybe their there to increase scoring to make the games fan friendly. Nobody but the winner likes a 6 to 3 game.
This is just one part of the rules that favors the O, you can get into pick plays etc... that are hardly ever called except for the blue bloods.
We need to get our blue blood status back..

 

[chattavol420]

Yet our ad specifically let it be k own he was looking for a defense first/old school coach. Wow. My god our leaders are freaking idiots. Again...the fans need to have a organized boycott. We can expect change until we use the power we have.

 

[feathersax]

You could have saved yourself hours of typing by simply stating “ college football has followed the NFL with rule changes that now benefit the offense to create more scoring.” Defensive secondary can’t sniff a WR without it being a penalty.

Wussification. As Jack Lambert said many years ago: "Put a dress on 'em."

 

[TNHopeful505]

I agree with that and your research bears it out that the game hasn't changed drastically in 20 years im terms of output, just how they are going about to get it.

Think my point helps explain why you don't see a drastic increase in number of plays run mainly.

My biggest gripe on Pruitts recruiting and why I think it is drastically overrated is the fact that he isn't bringing in ANY of these explosive playmakers you alluded to earlier.

Eric Gray has been the only player that really fits that category and RB is easier to scheme against defensively IMO.

The old adage goes...adapt or die.

Well, Pruitt and the Vols are learning it the hard way.

I would say Hyatt is a high caliber playmaker as well.

 

[TNHopeful505]

But let's ask the question. Was targeting a bad idea? Should it go away? The point was players health and the long term effects of concussions and brain injuries.

But we could argue...where are the protections for boxers? Where are the protections for UFC fighters? Where are the protections for rugby players? Why hasn't martial arts been banned?

They may or may not have headgear, and even with, they are deliberately delivering blows to the head. Why do we not advocate protection for them?

We could argue that boxers know what they're getting into and there assume the risks. Could we not do the same with football players? Or any athlete?

Again I am not trying to say I am for or against. I am asking the question though. Even if we have targeting on a high school or college level, should it go away when athletes sign million dollar contracts and are given insurance?

Thoughts? I would love to know what players think about it.

 

[TNHopeful505]

But let's ask the question. Was targeting a bad idea? Should it go away? The point was players health and the long term effects of concussions and brain injuries.

But we could argue...where are the protections for boxers? Where are the protections for UFC fighters? Where are the protections for rugby players? Why hasn't martial arts been banned?

They may or may not have headgear, and even with, they are deliberately delivering blows to the head. Why do we not advocate protection for them?

We could argue that boxers know what they're getting into and there assume the risks. Could we not do the same with football players? Or any athlete?

Again I am not trying to say I am for or against. I am asking the question though. Even if we have targeting on a high school or college level, should it go away when athletes sign million dollar contracts and are given insurance?

Thoughts? I would love to know what players think about it.

@David Ubben , do a piece on what players think about the targeting rule and would they be better players without it and would they still play knowing the risks. I'll renew my subscription just to read it. Ask defensive backs and linemen specifically. Get on it. Chop chop.