Good take on our chances of winning a NC again

#26

supersmo18

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#26
Yeah that's the biggest question mark.. The defense can't give up 48 points to teams like Purdue and be taken seriously as NC contender. Defense still wins Championships. Offense sells tickets.
My thought exactly. We’re getting a lot of good defensive recruits but we’re still way behind the 8 ball there, and we don’t know if they can produce until they actually do.
 
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#28

TNnative

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#28
Just looking at the coaches we hired since Fulmer is enough to make you want to throw up. The thing that baffles me the most is this. I have seen some on here state that (at the time) Kiffin was the hottest name on the coaching landscape. I cannot understand how. How can a guy whom never coached a down in CF and was a loser in the NFL the hottest name??? I call BS. Then after hiring one loser the AD turns around and hires another loser.
Thinking back on it? Vols hung onto Fulmer too long as well. As to Kiffin? They should have listened to Al Davis. Had Tennessee hired Patterson, Petersen, or just about any other coach than Kiffin? This would have been a less damaging train wreck, or might have been a success story.Those who think Kiffin was worth hiring needs to move to Oxford.
 
#31

sunnyvol79

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#31
I really like Josh Pate. He does some good analysis. He makes some good points in this video about Arkansas and Tennessee. I think he is spot on about TN.

We are a 9-4 at the very best 10-3 football program right now and that’s the absolute ceiling I do believe at UT. All of us fans on here wouid creme our pants if we won 10 games as long as it’s been now.
 
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#32

sunnyvol79

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#32
I’ve seen some fans predicting we will go 10-2 this season Lmao have they forgotten the Music City Bowl where our defense was straight dominated by a middle tier Big ten team giving up 48 points and our DC Banks was completely lost all game like he was most of the season. Heupel made exactly zero changes on defense and I don’t expect it to be any better than last season plus this fast tempo gimmick offense is hard on the defense they simply cannot rest long enough before going back on the field and that leads to shoot outs. I got us going 7-5 or 8-4
 
#33

BigOrangeTrain

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#33
We are a 9-4 at the very best 10-3 football program right now and that’s the absolute ceiling I do believe at UT. All of us fans on here wouid creme our pants if we won 10 games as long as it’s been now.
That’s right now. TN can absolutely get back on top. Now when that will happen is unknown.
 
#34

BigOrangeTrain

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#34
Thinking back on it? Vols hung onto Fulmer too long as well. As to Kiffin? They should have listened to Al Davis. Had Tennessee hired Patterson, Petersen, or just about any other coach than Kiffin? This would have been a less damaging train wreck, or might have been a success story.Those who think Kiffin was worth hiring needs to move to Oxford.
Agree completely. And the Kiffin thing just baffles me. How could he have been the hot name amongst college coaches in 2008??? Nobody is gonna convince me he was. As far as hanging onto to Fulmer too long? Don’t know if I agree. I mean it’s not like we fell off a cliff. 2005 was bad. 06 and 07 were good then 08 was bad.
 
#36

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#36
Agree completely. And the Kiffin thing just baffles me. How could he have been the hot name amongst college coaches in 2008??? Nobody is gonna convince me he was. As far as hanging onto to Fulmer too long? Don’t know if I agree. I mean it’s not like we fell off a cliff. 2005 was bad. 06 and 07 were good then 08 was bad.
Kiffin was not that at all. So get past it. As to your thoughts on 2005-2008? If you are only going to look at it from a win loss record standpoint? Rather than figuring out why? Well Hell, everytime, we lose one or two games more than you thought we should, you will be just another schmuck screaming "Bring Back Phil." That is almost depressing to think about.
 
#37

BigOrangeTrain

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#37
Kiffin was not that at all. So get past it. As to your thoughts on 2005-2008? If you are only going to look at it from a win loss record standpoint? Rather than figuring out why? Well Hell, everytime, we lose one or two games more than you thought we should, you will be just another schmuck screaming "Bring Back Phil." That is almost depressing to think about.
What other way was there to look at it? You are what your record says you are. The people who scream we held onto Fulmer too long are dumb. Again we didn’t fall off a cliff.
 
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#38

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#38
What other way was there to look at it? You are what your record says you are. The people who scream we held onto Fulmer too long are dumb. Again we didn’t fall off a cliff.
Sorry bro, I am over talking about it. If Fulmer was still in charge, I might go into it. Now that he is out? It just ain't worth the effort.
 
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#39

OrangeTsar

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#39
Agree completely. And the Kiffin thing just baffles me. How could he have been the hot name amongst college coaches in 2008??? Nobody is gonna convince me he was. As far as hanging onto to Fulmer too long? Don’t know if I agree. I mean it’s not like we fell off a cliff. 2005 was bad. 06 and 07 were good then 08 was bad.
Regarding Fulmer…..plot the seasons you mention along with the years that David Cutcliffe was here and you will have all you need to know
 
#40

VOLINVONORE

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#40
My thought exactly. We’re getting a lot of good defensive recruits but we’re still way behind the 8 ball there, and we don’t know if they can produce until they actually do.
Just imagine Tennessee's football records if the Chief had been able to scheme a defense which could have stopped the option and stopped anyone on 3rd down. We had the defensive players, but only once was able to keep other teams from outscoring us in the really big games.
 
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#41

VolArmy74

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#41
It's easier to win a championship now. Alabama has a few they wouldn't have in prior eras. Georgia wouldn't have had a chance after their big loss in the SECCG in prior eras either. If the playoffs expand again, it will be even easier to potentially win. You'll see 2 loss teams with a shot more often.
 
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#43

VFL-82-JP

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#43
It's easier to win a championship now. Alabama has a few they wouldn't have in prior eras. Georgia wouldn't have had a chance after their big loss in the SECCG in prior eras either. If the playoffs expand again, it will be even easier to potentially win. You'll see 2 loss teams with a shot more often.
Your logic is off, brother.

There are roughly 130 teams in FBS. Every year, one of them wins a national championship. The odds are 1 in 130.
There are 14 teams in the SEC. Every year, one of them wins a conference championship. The odds are 1 in 14.

If anything, it is a bit harder to win a championship today than it was in years gone by. For instance, back when there were only 126 teams in FBS, the odds of winning it all were slightly better, at 1 in 126. And before Mizzou and A&M joined the SEC, the odds of winning the conference title were about 12% better, at 1 in 12.

What I think you meant to say was that it is easier to get to the games where a national title can potentially be won. And that is sort of true. Today, 4 teams out of 130 get invited to play for the national crown. Used to be just 2 of 130. Then again, back before the BCS came into being, several teams could "play for a championship" by having a great regular season and winning their bowl game, in hopes of being selected by AP or UPI or Dunkel or NCFA or any of the other polls and systems that proclaim national champs.

So, arguably, it was easier to play for (and win) a national title when four or five teams could all be named the champs. Making it actually harder today.

Here's hoping we're the ones winning them, soon.

Go Vols!
 
#44

VolArmy74

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#44
Your logic is off, brother.

There are roughly 130 teams in FBS. Every year, one of them wins a national championship. The odds are 1 in 130.
There are 14 teams in the SEC. Every year, one of them wins a conference championship. The odds are 1 in 14.

If anything, it is a bit harder to win a championship today than it was in years gone by. For instance, back when there were only 126 teams in FBS, the odds of winning it all were slightly better, at 1 in 126. And before Mizzou and A&M joined the SEC, the odds of winning the conference title were about 12% better, at 1 in 12.

What I think you meant to say was that it is easier to get to the games where a national title can potentially be won. And that is sort of true. Today, 4 teams out of 130 get invited to play for the national crown. Used to be just 2 of 130. Then again, back before the BCS came into being, several teams could "play for a championship" by having a great regular season and winning their bowl game, in hopes of being selected by AP or UPI or Dunkel or NCFA or any of the other polls and systems that proclaim national champs.

So, arguably, it was easier to play for (and win) a national title when four or five teams could all be named the champs. Making it actually harder today.

Here's hoping we're the ones winning them, soon.

Go Vols!
That's not remotely how odds work as each team/program doesn't have an equal chance of winning a title, and those teams in the past didn't "win" the title, they were awarded a title by a selector, basically since the advent of the BCS you win titles. We can eliminate 60+ of your 130 teams off the bat, as non-P5 schools have virtually no shot at winning a national title and there won't likely ever be more than one each year that is given the opportunity if/when the playoffs expand. In a year without expanded playoffs we have had 1 non-P5/Notre Dame school ever get to make the playoff. There are other p5 programs, Vandy, Kansas, Duke, etc that are not in position as a program to ever win a national title in a given year, in reality you can probably eliminate 30+ p5 programs each year before the season begins. Basically each year there are around 20-25 programs capable of winning a title. If 8-10-12 of them are in a national playoff, the odds are much higher for one of those programs to win it In the past, even one regular season loss could derail your entire season. In an expanded playoff, two losses won't eliminate everyone. It's like NCAA basketball, the best team doesn't always win the NCAA championship, it's the team that makes the tournament and gets on a hot streak.
 
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#46

VFL-82-JP

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#46
That's not remotely how odds work as each team/program doesn't have an equal chance of winning a title, and those teams in the past didn't "win" the title, they were awarded a title by a selector, basically since the advent of the BCS you win titles. We can eliminate 60+ of your 130 teams off the bat, as non-P5 schools have virtually no shot at winning a national title and there won't likely ever be more than one each year that is given the opportunity if/when the playoffs expand. In a year without expanded playoffs we have had 1 non-P5/Notre Dame school ever get to make the playoff. There are other p5 programs, Vandy, Kansas, Duke, etc that are not in position as a program to ever win a national title in a given year, in reality you can probably eliminate 30+ p5 programs each year before the season begins. Basically each year there are around 20-25 programs capable of winning a title. If 8-10-12 of them are in a national playoff, the odds are much higher for one of those programs to win it In the past, even one regular season loss could derail your entire season. In an expanded playoff, two losses won't eliminate everyone. It's like NCAA basketball, the best team doesn't always win the NCAA championship, it's the team that makes the tournament and gets on a hot streak.
Still bad logic.

Sure, there are probably only about 25-30 teams in FBS who are realistically capable of competing for a championship.

But that has always been true. Was true 30 years ago (a somewhat different 25 teams, but still roughly the same total number), and true 60 years ago, and true 90 years ago. There have always been haves and have-nots.

We agree on that part.

The error you continue to make is when you say this: " If 8-10-12 of them are in a national playoff, the odds are much higher for one of those programs to win it." Nope. The odds are still for one team, just one, out of the 130 in FBS, to win the championship. If you choose to only consider the 25 or 30 teams with a realistic shot, fine, there is still only 1 team out of the 25 or 30 who can win it all. 1 out of 25 (or 30) today is identical to 1 out of 25 (or 30) at the end of World War II. The key number remains "1".

Go Vols!
 
#47

VolArmy74

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#47
Still bad logic.

Sure, there are probably only about 25-30 teams in FBS who are realistically capable of competing for a championship.

But that has always been true. Was true 30 years ago (a somewhat different 25 teams, but still roughly the same total number), and true 60 years ago, and true 90 years ago. There have always been haves and have-nots.

We agree on that part.

The error you continue to make is when you say this: " If 8-10-12 of them are in a national playoff, the odds are much higher for one of those programs to win it." Nope. The odds are still for one team, just one, out of the 130 in FBS, to win the championship. If you choose to only consider the 25 or 30 teams with a realistic shot, fine, there is still only 1 team out of the 25 or 30 who can win it all. 1 out of 25 (or 30) today is identical to 1 out of 25 (or 30) at the end of World War II. The key number remains "1".

Go Vols!
Only one team can win it. In the past only two teams had an opportunity at the end of the regular season. When the playoffs expand that many more will have a shot. The odds of winning it aren't 1 in 8 for each team in an 8 team playoff. There will still be teams who have a better shot at it.
 
#48

norrislakevol

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#48
We have to improve on the OL and in the secondary to really make noise this year. We are good enough at WR and QB to be a title contender, but holes on the rest of the team prevent us from being one right now. As we are right now 9 - 3 is quite possible. 10 - 2 would be miraculous.

I know it sucks to think this way, but Tennessee is likely to finish with a top 10 class this year and next year as well. The NIL will help us with recruiting as well as in the portal. 2024 is when I think Tennessee will truly be able to shine and challenge Georgia for the East. Patience my friends.
 

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