Go Away Ida!

#1
InfiniteVol

InfiniteVol

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#1
Tropical Storm Ida making landfall in Louisiana next week as a major hurricane. Projected to impact our area middle of next week. I'm afraid of crappy (hopefully not unplayable) conditions for our game. Hoping for the best, but who knows in these crazy times.
 
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#3
#3
Planned to come on shore Sun. Night on the anniversary of Katrina. High 2/low 3 (just consider it major status). Luckily the new city construction has been stress tested. It's still a little far in the future to see the future yet tho. It will be cutting it close.
 
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#4
#4
Kind of a nerd fact but a buddy of mine who just retired from the Army Corp of Engineers was telling me they discovered the mud about 5 feet down is the perfect type to build all the new levees with. That is great because they had to pretty much rebuild 192 miles of levees and 99 miles of flood-walls at a cost of about 15 billion dollars.
 
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#5
#5
Last year was a great stress test. The new levees work, but you never underestimate mother nature, eapecially with the storms getting stronger and more numerous. everything in tropical storm science is still a little cutting edge. The National Hurricane center is getting very, very good at calling these things tho, and the people who live there know what they are looking at for the most part.
 
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#9
#9
It's more like cyclic climate change. The oceans are one way in which the Earth takes care of heat. Notice I said climate change, not global warming. Climate change is periodic, global warming has been with us since we crawled out of the trees and stood upright.

The problem we've had with climate change is we only have a 150 yrs of data for modeling. It can still be a little sketch in the predictive department until more data is collected. National Hurricane Center is one of the best in the world at this point... but obviously, these are dynamic events.
 
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#11
#11
Looking at the forecast for Knoxville with Ida factored in. At 7 pm, Thursday 2 Sept, 78 degrees with 4 mph wind from the NNE. 24% chance of showers. Looks like rain and storms winding down after three days of significant rain. I guess the football question would be, does anyone who watches practice have insight on our running game? I would think with Milton and Hooker being run QBs and some strong running backs and better that last year OL, playing in the rain or wet field would go in our favor. I have taken a watch and learn attitude towards the defense. Hoping they can a) stop a slant and b) prevent the long ball and long run. Go Vols!
 
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#12
#12
GoodlettsvilleVol said:
Why don't we position some of those blowhard Alabama/Georgia fans on the coast.

That would produce so much hot air it would create a high pressure system that would drive that storm off elsewhere.

Just a thought.
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Put on Tinder there’s a family reunion in LA and they’ll all show up.
 
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#14
#14
It's too soon to be making claims like that, we don't know it's personality yet. Will it do well at night for instance? There is a warm patch of water in the Gulf which will probably ignite it as it goes over it. Look for a very impressive storm tomorrow evening, and then we know more.
 
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#15
#15
IluvdoubleD's said:
It's too soon to be making claims like that, we don't know it's personality yet. Will it do well at night for instance? There is a warm patch of water in the Gulf which will probably ignite it as it goes over it. Look for a very impressive storm tomorrow evening, and then we know more.
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It's not too early to be making claims if you are in the NOLA area. His fear is that the NWS is underputting this one to date since they oversold Henri too much last weekend.

Either way, should not impact the playing of our game Thursday
 
#17
#17
BigOrangeMojo said:
Next door neighbor is meteorologist for FedEx. He thinks it will likely be at least a Cat 4 at some point this weekend (stronger than what NWS is predicting). Should be out of our area well before Thursday.
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That's a badass job. I have a supply chain degree from UT, wonder if I could add meteorology on top and do something like that?
 
#18
#18
ButchPlz said:
That's a badass job. I have a supply chain degree from UT, wonder if I could add meteorology on top and do something like that?
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I actually know 2 of the meteorologists at FedEx - obviously, that's a huge job for that Company given the logistics involved. They have a decent sized team that monitors global weather.
 
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#19
#19
IluvdoubleD's said:
Stick to the National Hurricane Center. They will change forecasts as needed. Several times a day. If you don't want to live with Hurricanes get out of NOLA.
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While true, they stuck with their forecast last weekend with Henri until the very last moment although every piece of data said they were overselling.
 
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#20
#20
What happened with henri was an anomaly and that's why we say these situations are "dynamic". You have to know your local geography in many cases. The JETSTREAM has been sitting waaaaayyyyyyyyy up high in canada and refusing to come down. This is probably due to a very ghostly like summer ridge that has been setting up over the lower states and gulf area last couple of years. That JETSTREAM is trying to sink back down, it's having a tough go of it, but if you look at a nation wide weather map, up in the Wisconsin area you can see it rn. Weather is not linear, its what's called causality in physics. It means "a" doesn't equal "b", it sometimes equals "e".
 
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#21
#21
When you talk about the people of the gulf, you are talking about generations, that have seen generations of storms. They generally know which areas are going to go under at this point. Generally, they will get out, and generally, folks know how to prep for a cat 3 storm and what it can do. You know what's scary? the clean up in this heat. That could get bad.
 
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#22
#22
IluvdoubleD's said:
When you talk about the people of the gulf, you are talking about generations, that have seen generations of storms. They generally know which areas are going to go under at this point. Generally, they will get out, and generally, folks know how to prep for a cat 3 storm and what it can do. You know what's scary? the clean up in this heat. That could get bad.
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They do but NOLA is a weird case given its geography, demographics, and relative lack of highways in and out of the city. The difference in a storm that peaks as a Cat 2 (which was projection this morning) and a Cat 4 is voluntary evacuations versus a mandatory evacuation of a 1MM person plus Metro area.

Did note that in their most recent release, they upgraded projected peak winds to Cat 3 from Cat 2.

I'm just a little jaded since at this point (60-72 hr point), Michael was supposed to be a marginal Cat 1 hurricane in 2018 and I was down in the area at that time.
 
#24
#24
Yeah, they just hit the red button on that area with manditory, but my guess is folks in those areas were already doing that. Watch the st charles lake area. Those people refuse to leave, and they have been defying the odds for years.
 
#25
#25
87&91ALUM said:
Looking at the forecast for Knoxville with Ida factored in. At 7 pm, Thursday 2 Sept, 78 degrees with 4 mph wind from the NNE. 24% chance of showers. Looks like rain and storms winding down after three days of significant rain. I guess the football question would be, does anyone who watches practice have insight on our running game? I would think with Milton and Hooker being run QBs and some strong running backs and better that last year OL, playing in the rain or wet field would go in our favor. I have taken a watch and learn attitude towards the defense. Hoping they can a) stop a slant and b) prevent the long ball and long run. Go Vols!
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Its still Bowling Green, if they cant beat them in any weather, then Heuple isnt the guy
 
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