Give More Carries to Hardesty and Creer

#51
#51
kptvol said:
Fair enough. Utimately, I have to think that at this point, with things the way they are in the Vol program that Phil isn't basing his decisions on seniority or for some weird quest to break a record one of his own players already holds. I know you probably haven't suggested that, but plenty have. I'd have to think that running back isn't the most difficult position in the world to evaluate. If Hardesty and Creer were tearing it up in practice, I believe Phil would recognize their superiority and they'd be playing way more. Phil knows his job is less secure than it's ever been. He wants to play the best player the most. Right now he thinks that is Arian Foster.
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Yea, I am not getting ballistic with this argument as in the past. It is a close call either way, I think some injuries early in his career put Hardesty behind and Arian took the reigns and hasn't done anything to lose those reigns in Fulmer's eyes.
 
#52
#52
allvol123 said:
Yea, I am not getting ballistic with this argument as in the past. It is a close call either way, I think some injuries early in his career put Hardesty behind and Arian took the reigns and hasn't done anything to lose those reigns in Fulmer's eyes.
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One of the people you mentioned in this post will be elsewhere next season, likely two. Hardesty will get his chance.
 
#53
#53
allvol123 said:
YPC is important. I don't think Hardesty has ever averaged 10 carries per game in a season, not sure due to what games he was healthy enough to be considered for playing time. I am not confident that gives a good gauge of what his YPC would be if he were a starter getting 20+ carries a game.
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For most backs, and this is generally speaking, the YPC tends to drop off some when they become the primary back. They don't have the advantage of coming in fresh against a tired defense and they are usually the back that is gameplanned to stop. That is how it works about 85-90% of the time.
 
#54
#54
kptvol said:
One of the people you mentioned in this post will be elsewhere next season, likely two. Hardesty will get his chance.
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I hope Hardesty stays healthy the remainder of his time here. I would like to see him get a few chances as the 20+ carry a game back.
 
#55
#55
vols kick balls said:
For most backs, and this is generally speaking, the YPC tends to drop off some when they become the primary back. They don't have the advantage of coming in fresh against a tired defense and they are usually the back that is gameplanned to stop. That is how it works about 85-90% of the time.
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Yea but YPC can really be buoyed by a couple of 20 yard runs or a 40+ yard run. Getting the ball less times obviously lowers your chances of getting these types of runs.
 
#56
#56
allvol123 said:
I hope Hardesty stays healthy the remainder of his time here. I would like to see him get a few chances as the 20+ carry a game back.
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He actually had that chance in 2006 and blew it, but I think he still wasn't 100% recovered from the knee injury.
 
#57
#57
allvol123 said:
Yea but YPC can really be buoyed by a couple of 20 yard runs or a 40+ yard run. Getting the ball less times obviously lowers you chances of getting these types of runs.
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But it also greatly increases your chances of getting carries on third and short, which very rarely yield more than a yard.
 
#58
#58
kptvol said:
But it also greatly increases your chances of getting carries on third and short, which very rarely yield more than a yard.
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But like you say in reference to Creer, the YPC is much truer given a larger sample. There is also the idea of backs getting into a rhythym which is hard to do with 10 scattered carries throughout a game.
 
#59
#59
allvol123 said:
Yea but YPC can really be buoyed by a couple of 20 yard runs or a 40+ yard run. Getting the ball less times obviously lowers your chances of getting these types of runs.
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It works both ways though. Getting a long run with few carries makes your YPC ridiculous. YPC really is the most helpful with backs that get a good dose of carries a game.

The buoyed YPC is an argument of yours that I would like further explanation on. I'm not exactly sure what you are getting at but I think I might have an idea. Would like some clarification though before I comment on it.
 
#60
#60
vols kick balls said:
It works both ways though. Getting a long run with few carries makes your YPC ridiculous. YPC really is the most helpful with backs that get a good dose of carries a game.

The buoyed YPC is an argument of yours that I would like further explanation on. I'm not exactly sure what you are getting at but I think I might have an idea. Would like some clarification though before I comment on it.
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True. I think Foster is the only one getting even close to this, this year. I believe he is at 13 carries per game.

Buoyed because more chances equals a greater chance at getting a long run. True there are more chances of getting stuffed but a back most likely is going to get stuffed or very small or minimal yardage on 1 out of 4 runs anyway.
 
#61
#61
allvol123 said:
True. I think Foster is the only one getting even close to this, this year. I believe he is at 13 carries per game.

Buoyed because more chances equals a greater chance at getting a long run. True there are more chances of getting stuffed but a back most likely is going to get stuffed or very small or minimal yardage on 1 out of 4 runs anyway.
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It could theoretically work that way, but typically (and I mean almost always) ypc goes down as the number of carries goes up.
 
#63
#63
kptvol said:
It could theoretically work that way, but typically (and I mean almost always) ypc goes down as the number of carries goes up.
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I would bet you have to hit a range before than happens though. I mean if you are graphing it, I don't know that you see it going down from carries 1-3 for example. It probably does have a point(or a range) on the graph where the YPC would go down, but I don't know where that point would be.
 
#65
#65
The RB discussion aside, UT couldn't run the ball against NIU when UT had good play from the QB position. Granted, teams are going to play to stop the run and force UT to pass, it doesn't bode well for the future.
 
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