GAME THREAD: @ South Carolina, Sunday, 2/8, 3 pm EST, ABC

#1,201
#1,201
AllVols3 said:
15-6 isn't a dumpster fire.
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You can’t be that naive. A random record without any context is meaningless. So I’ll give you some; 22.83. That’s the avg margin of defeat. Cool we won all of our games against deadbeat opponents; wait nevermind, we lost by 15 at home to the 12th place team in the league .
 
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#1,203
#1,203
Claude 4.5 Opus analyzing play-by-play scraped from ESPN. To me, this doesn't look all that different in the first half from what we've seen in other games.

Tennessee Lady Vols Substitution Patterns
vs South Carolina

TNSC
Q15-5: 1
4-4: 1
3-3: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 2		2-2: 1
1-1: 2
Q24-4: 2
2-2: 3
1-1: 2		2-2: 1
1-1: 3
Q33-3: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 2		2-2: 2
1-1: 1
Q45-5: 1
4-4: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 2		2-2: 1
1-1: 1
[th colspan=2] South Carolina [/th]

I meant to ask Claude to analyze who Tennessee was substituting and what that suggested, but worded so it read like I was asking about South Carolina. I got this:

Throughout the game, SC used a very tight rotation:
  • Ta'Niya Latson - constantly rotating in/out (appears 9 times)
  • Joyce Edwards and Ayla McDowell - swapping for each other
  • Raven Johnson and Tessa Johnson - primary guards
  • Madina Okot and Alicia Tournebize - frontcourt rotation
They never made a sub larger than 2-2 the entire game. This suggests Dawn Staley was comfortable with her core group and didn't need to experiment - they were rolling.
Click to expand...

Interestingly, Claude picked up on the possible error and asked me if I wanted to also look at Tennessee. I confirmed and got the following. Not sure I'd phrase it exactly this way -- too much emphasis on Kaniya Boyd, for example, but overall, seems plausible.

Here's what the substitution data reveals about Tennessee's game against South Carolina:

The Search for Answers
  • Talaysia Cooper (8 in, 8 out) and Nya Robertson (8 in, 7 out) were constantly being shuffled - far more than any other players. This suggests Caldwell was struggling to find a combination that could handle SC's pressure.
The Kaniya Boyd Experiment Failed Fast
  • Boyd came in 3 times, always when Tennessee was struggling:
    • Q2 at 6:20 (down 7) - stayed 2 minutes
    • Q3 at 8:57 (down 19) - pulled after just 30 seconds
    • Q4 at 7:16 (down 39) - garbage time
The Q3 stint is telling: Boyd came in, Cooper immediately turned it over, SC scored, and Caldwell called timeout and yanked Boyd plus two others. That's a coach seeing a lineup that can't work.

The White Flag - Q4 at 7:16: Down 39, Caldwell made a full 5-5 swap pulling Janiah Barker, Nya Robertson, Lauren Hurst, Mia Pauldo, and Jaida Civil. That's essentially her core group all coming out at once. This is the "game's over" substitution.

The Unusual Move - Starters Back at 5:55: Surprisingly, down 42 with under 6 minutes left, Caldwell brought Barker, Robertson, and others back in. Possible reasons:
  • Wanted them to get more reps against SC's elite defense
  • Didn't want them sitting cold for too long
  • Refused to completely give up
Contrast with Close Games: In tight games (Georgia OT, late Q4 situations), Tennessee goes to all 1-1 subs. Here, they did the opposite - big unit swaps late because there was nothing left to lose.


Bottom Line: The constant shuffling of Cooper and Robertson, the failed Boyd experiments, and the early white flag all suggest Tennessee simply couldn't find anything that worked against South Carolina's defense. The 93-50 final tells the same story the substitutions do - they were overwhelmed.
Click to expand...
 
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#1,204
#1,204
RetroVol said:
Claude 4.5 Opus analyzing play-by-play scraped from ESPN. To me, this doesn't look all that different in the first half from what we've seen in other games.

Tennessee Lady Vols Substitution Patterns
vs South Carolina

TNSC
Q15-5: 1
4-4: 1
3-3: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 2		2-2: 1
1-1: 2
Q24-4: 2
2-2: 3
1-1: 2		2-2: 1
1-1: 3
Q33-3: 3
2-2: 1
1-1: 2		2-2: 2
1-1: 1
Q45-5: 1
4-4: 1
2-2: 1
1-1: 2		2-2: 1
1-1: 1
[th colspan=2] South Carolina [/th]

I meant to ask Claude to analyze who Tennessee was substituting and what that suggested, but worded so it read like I was asking about South Carolina. I got this:



Interestingly, Claude picked up on the possible error and asked me if I wanted to also look at Tennessee. I confirmed and got the following. Not sure I'd phrase it exactly this way -- too much emphasis on Kaniya Boyd, for example, but overall, seems plausible.
Click to expand...
Thank you so much for doing this, it’s so informative. Puts us in danger of actually knowing what we’re talking about. I just realized the subs are listed by quantity, not by the order in which they occurred in the quarter.
 
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#1,205
#1,205
Tennessee Lady Vols Substitution Patterns
vs South Carolina

TNSC
Q15-5: 1 (8:19)
4-4: 1 (6:51)
3-3: 3 (8:50, 3:20, 2:18)
2-2: 1 (2:01)
1-1: 2 (6:27, 6:11)		2-2: 1 (3:20)
1-1: 2 (6:51, 0:51)
Q24-4: 2 (7:19, 6:20)
2-2: 3 (9:09, 4:41, 2:49)
1-1: 2 (7:56, 2:12)		2-2: 1 (7:56)
1-1: 3 (10:00, 6:08, 4:41)
Q33-3: 3 (8:57, 8:27, 3:40)
2-2: 1 (5:48)
1-1: 2 (7:27, 1:41)		2-2: 2 (3:40, 2:27)
1-1: 1 (0:42)
Q45-5: 1 (7:16)
4-4: 1 (5:55)
2-2: 1 (10:00)
1-1: 2 (5:12, 4:54)		2-2: 1 (7:16)
1-1: 1 (4:16)
[th colspan=2] South Carolina [/th]
 
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#1,206
#1,206
AthensVol2007 said:
You can’t be that naive. A random record without any context is meaningless. So I’ll give you some; 22.83. That’s the avg margin of defeat. Cool we won all of our games against deadbeat opponents; wait nevermind, we lost by 15 at home to the 12th place team in the league .
Click to expand...
15-6 is 15-6 , every team plays cupcakes. The last 6 games will define the season, not anything you nor I think.
 
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#1,208
#1,208
1morevol said:
Cooper's lazy passes and bad handles have been a problem her entire career as a Lady Vol. Not a drive and dish player either. In her defense, when she does drive other players usually just stand and watch instead of cutting to the basket to present themselves for a possible pass or to get rebounding position. She does things that make me say "wow" sometimes then follows that with a "what the hell" moment. She can be a stat stuffer or a no show, one never knows. In my opinion, she has much work to do in order to become a significant player in the WNBA.
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A person mentioned this several times about cooper and spearman last year but people were drinking the koolaid they are doing it again and now ppl r complainin… Coop needs to be the 4th best player on this team and spearman needs to be the 8th best player.… NyA should not have been recruited her… just look at the clip on Twitter… everything is a joke for her and immatured
 
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#1,210
#1,210
VolTenn25 said:
We’ve seen her take accountability before. I’m tired of seeing people saying she hasn’t. She has. Publicly a few times this season. Said it starts with her top down.. so everyone can drop that narrative real quick. Clearly those that say she hasn’t haven’t been paying attention. These players are getting paid a hefty sum now. It’s just as much their job to go out & do what their supervisor tells them to do. This fan base is always overblowing things. It’s YEAR 2! she overachieved in yr 1 & everyone was on her side. The first sign of struggle & everyone has their pitchforks out calling for her job. Year. Damn. 2. Chill out guys. If it’s still this bad in year 3 or 4 then maybe a different convo could start to be had.
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On this board (and I am NOT getting into the X cesspool), I don't think many, if any, are calling for CKC's job. I certainly don't want that. What people are asking for is that she shows more adaptability and growth in the job, and so does sooner than later, because she now looks a bit in over her head.
 
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#1,211
#1,211
LVFL78 said:
A person mentioned this several times about cooper and spearman last year but people were drinking the koolaid they are doing it again and now ppl r complainin… Coop needs to be the 4th best player on this team and spearman needs to be the 8th best player.… NyA should not have been recruited her… just look at the clip on Twitter… everything is a joke for her and immatured
Click to expand...
What clip?
 
#1,212
#1,212
madtownvol said:
On this board (and I am NOT getting into the X cesspool), I don't think many, if any, are calling for CKC's job. I certainly don't want that. What people are asking for is that she shows more adaptability and growth in the job, and so does sooner than later, because she now looks a bit in over her head.
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Let’s look at it from the outside & not with vol colored glasses. I’d imagine she does feel a bit in over her head at the moment because I’d bet she’s never been in a situation like this before with players. D2 & mid majors, I’d say, tend to be closer teams because expectations are pretty low for them. She said she never wanted to be anywhere there weren’t expectations. She’s still very young as head coaches go. She’s learning on the job. Who’s to say she isn’t trying to adapt & they aren’t going with her? Maybe it’s too far in to adapt? Idk. We don’t know what’s going on there. Everyone should just let the season play out how it’s going to & overreact then. I think her growth next year will tell us a lot. If her first year was any indication of the type of person she is, it showed she damn sure isn’t a quitter. Coaching 5 days post natal. That’s the type of loyal you want leading your team.
 
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#1,213
#1,213
AllVols3 said:
15-6 is 15-6 , every team plays cupcakes. The last 6 games will define the season, not anything you nor I think.
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No it’s not. You feel the same about a team that loses 6 games by a total of 23 pts and one that loses 6 games by an avg of 23 pts/game? Those 2 teams are same? Anyone who professes to be a LV fan and is accepting of 2 of the 3 worst losses in program history and being completely uncompetitive vs anyone with a pulse is a worse fan than the ones gnashing teeth. You’re accepting mediocrity and throwing your hands up that we can’t be what we once were.
 
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#1,214
#1,214
AthensVol2007 said:
No it’s not. You feel the same about a team that loses 6 games by a total of 23 pts and one that loses 6 games by an avg of 23 pts/game? Those 2 teams are same? Anyone who professes to be a LV fan and is accepting of 2 of the 3 worst losses in program history and being completely uncompetitive vs anyone with a pulse is a worse fan than the ones gnashing teeth. You’re accepting mediocrity and throwing your hands up that we can’t be what we once were.
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It counts the same in the standings , so it really doesnt matter. It's usually easier to come back after getting embarrassed than a close lose. Now we all have to think the same ti be a fan? That has to be the DUMBEST take I've ever heard. You keeo being you and I'll keep being me. Kim needs to bench the effortless 4 and play the 8 girls that will play hard. Set the culture and don't back down , win or lose .
 
#1,216
#1,216
AllVols3 said:
It counts the same in the standings , so it really doesnt matter. It's usually easier to come back after getting embarrassed than a close lose. Now we all have to think the same ti be a fan? That has to be the DUMBEST take I've ever heard. You keeo being you and I'll keep being me. Kim needs to bench the effortless 4 and play the 8 girls that will play hard. Set the culture and don't back down , win or lose .
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what standings? The only standings that matter are in March-April and a team losing by 20+ to NCAAT teams isn’t going far in said tournament.
 
#1,217
#1,217
us fans need to relax… and the media is playing your feelings for ratings and clicks… Coach is going to be justfine… negative fans are just impatient and unrealistic.
 
#1,220
#1,220
AthensVol2007 said:
Dude we just lost by 43 and 30 in a 7 day span, keep clinging to that hope.
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We'd still have the same record if we lost by 1 in both games. A lose is a lose. It seems easier to forget a blowout than 2 q point loses. We played bad in both games, flush it and get back to work. The season rides or dies with Cooper,Barker, Zee, and Nya's effort and body language. If those 4 decide to put forth the effort required to win at this level, we will win some games down the stretch. If they don't, you'll see a repeat of the last 2 games. You can't coach effort, you can punish poor effort, maybe that's the next step. Those 4 hold the fate of this team. They need to step up and lead this team by example, not just scoring, rebounding, and TO's.
 
#1,221
#1,221
AllVols3 said:
We'd still have the same record if we lost by 1 in both games. A lose is a lose. It seems easier to forget a blowout than 2 q point loses. We played bad in both games, flush it and get back to work. The season rides or dies with Cooper,Barker, Zee, and Nya's effort and body language. If those 4 decide to put forth the effort required to win at this level, we will win some games down the stretch. If they don't, you'll see a repeat of the last 2 games. You can't coach effort, you can punish poor effort, maybe that's the next step. Those 4 hold the fate of this team. They need to step up and lead this team by example, not just scoring, rebounding, and TO's.
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They’re not the same but keep thinking that.
 
#1,223
#1,223
AllVols3 said:
Did it count for 2 loses? If not it's the same. Harder for fans,maybe, but 18-22 year old players, it's just the same as losing by 10.
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It doesn’t matter what they count as in the W-L column, it’s a measurement of how close you are to taking the next step and getting to where your competition is and where you want to be; we’re clearly not close to that.
 
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#1,224
#1,224
AthensVol2007 said:
It doesn’t matter what they count as in the W-L column, it’s a measurement of how close you are to taking the next step and getting to where your competition is and where you want to be; we’re clearly not close to that.
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It will matter to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee....
 
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#1,225
#1,225
AthensVol2007 said:
It doesn’t matter what they count as in the W-L column, it’s a measurement of how close you are to taking the next step and getting to where your competition is and where you want to be; we’re clearly not close to that.
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Each game is different. They quit against USCjr, that's why we got blasted. We also quit in the last 15 minutes against UConn. If we play with effort , we can be in every game. If we don't you'll see more 30 point games. No team has a chance with no effort/heart. Ask Vic @ UTjr, he called his team out after their last game too.
 
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