Game Thread: Lady Vols v NC State, Away, Wed., 4PM, ESPN2, Tues Nov 4th

[Volfan2012]

I understand the system is based on Theoretical Analytics. It's just that I have not seen the system be completely successful at this level when applied to real life games with real life players. There are just too many variables. That's why it's come and gone as a style over the last 40 years.

The Immediate question is at what point, if any, do you stop happily giving up easy twos when it becomes apparent they're not being offset by generating more points turnovers in a particular game. Also at what point do you tweek the subbing that the system necessitates when it's keeping your best players off the floor at crucial moments. It's a legit discussion.

I just can't see the point of going all out with all five players. You have to have one back to try to prevent the layup. The total sellout is where we get burned cause all the top teams have a point guard and usually a two guard that can avoid the trap so they leave their big girl down by the basket not even involved with getting the ball up.

 

[Coach Jumper]

I just can't see the point of going all out with all five players. You have to have one back to try to prevent the layup. The total sellout is where we get burned cause all the top teams have a point guard and usually a two guard that can avoid the trap so they leave their big girl down by the basket not even involved with getting the ball up.

THIS /\

At this level most of the BH'ers can throw the ball the length of the court accurately, so

THIS /|

 

[RespectAPA]

Seeing a couple few easy shots and concluding that we shouldn't press is like seeing a pick 6 in a football game and concluding that we shouldn't pass, as a general principle.

When talking about what we should do, you can't take the negativ and ignore the positiv, tempting as that may be.

 

[glv98]

Seeing a couple few easy shots and concluding that we shouldn't press is like seeing a pick 6 in a football game and concluding that we shouldn't pass, as a general principle.

When talking about what we should do, you can't take the negativ and ignore the positiv, tempting as that may be.

But it's not a once in a while big play that's hurting us. I see it more as constantly being picked at with successful short passes over the middle leading to scoring drives. At what point if any do you adjust that defense? If the negatives are clearly outweighing the positives and that situation is not likely to change within the game, is it giving up to make the adjustment or do you ignore the needed adjustment in favor of devotion to the system?

I just can't see the point of going all out with all five players. You have to have one back to try to prevent the layup. The total sellout is where we get burned cause all the top teams have a point guard and usually a two guard that can avoid the trap so they leave their big girl down by the basket not even involved with getting the ball up.

We generally have someone back. The problem is any time you're trapping, by definition two of our players guarding one of theirs, we're at a numbers disadvantage. No matter who's back for us we're on the wrong end of the numbers once the pass beats the trap. No amount of talent, speed or experience within the system is ever going to allow one or both of the trapping players to beat that pass up the floor. That's the built in disadvantage.

The answer of course is to never let the long pass get around the trap and up the floor, at least not more often then it creates a turnover . But that's turning out to be much easier said than done. Math not mathing against the best teams. Thats always been the experiment and it’s interesting to watch it play out.

 

[volbabyvol]

I agree with everything except Zee. She is our best "big'.

[I don't think Wolfenberger's limitation are going away (a 5th year senior is who she is. She is not suddenly going to get stronger or develop better hands in the paint).

If Zee had a game on par with her better, last season performances, the LVs likely win this game.

The staff has to stick with Zee and hope that she finds her groove sooner than later.

No Spearman is NOT our best big, all she does is take bad shots and turn the ball over as a senior i would rather live with a freshman making those mistakes to learn from.
Spearman doesn't understand if my shot is not falling crash the boards be a presence on defense to effect the game. She gave up 2 out of bounds plays for easy points or foul.

Most of those easy layups when State big was left alone in the press guess who was guarding her?


Latham should of got more minutes than Spearman
Wolf was in foul trouble all game never got a chance to get in a flow.

 

[VolBall09]

No Spearman is NOT our best big, all she does is take bad shots and turn the ball over as a senior i would rather live with a freshman making those mistakes to learn from.
Spearman doesn't understand if my shot is not falling crash the boards be a presence on defense to effect the game. She gave up 2 out of bounds plays for easy points or foul.

Most of those easy layups when State big was left alone in the press guess who was guarding her?


Latham should of got more minutes than Spearman
Wolf was in foul trouble all game never got a chance to get in a flow.

It’s been one game. Slow your roll, Jesus.

 

[volbabyvol]

It’s been one game. Slow your roll, Jesus.

No this was Spearman last season and in the exhibition. Last year we had to deal with it only 2 bigs, not so much this season.

But let's collect the data as it comes in lunch on me.

 

[RetroVol]

That simplification isn't quite right. There's a bias toward pressing because if once you account for all (a) opponent turnovers (b) opponent easy shots and (c) Tennessee easy shots off backcourt pressure, the remainder, (d) has more Tennessee possessions than opponent possessions.

I'll give an example. Let's say our opponent takes 10 shots that we'd categorize as "easy", making 8 of them. Let's say Tennessee forces 20 opponent turnovers. And let's say that 3 of those turnovers are steals which turn into easy points.

In that particular sample, the score is

Tennessee - 6
Opponent - 16

So -10? But consider (d), which is every other possession besides the 33 that I described in (a)(b)(c). 30 of those possessions are opponent possessions (20 turnovers + 10 high success transition shots) and only 3 are Tennessee possessions (the 3 scoop-n-scores)

If we make the assumptions that both teams are going to score 0.9 points per possession, and take into account that Tennessee has 77 possessions remaining, but Opponent has only 50 possessions remaining, then we find that in sample (d) alone, the score is

Tennessee (0.9 * 77) = 69
Opponent (0.9 * 50) = 45

Which would give a final score of

Tennessee - 75
Opponent - 61

The numbers here are just made up on the spot, and could certainly be scrutinized to be more realistic, but they serve to make the point that many people wil tend to overstate the pain of giving up an "easy 2" while understating the reward of generating an extra turnover, which are approximately equal in relativ value. There's different ways to frame it, but all that matters is that it's the foundation of a successful gameplan, and it's why we don't lose by much very often, and why we win by a heck of a lot a decent bit.

RespectAPA, really appreciate the analysis. I'm curious, though, as to why you believe no one on the current LV staff knows or cares about such analyses? I thought analytics had pretty much premade sports at every level and wouldn't have imagined that Coach Caldwell and her staff would be behind in that regard.

 

[Volfan2012]

RespectAPA, really appreciate the analysis. I'm curious, though, as to why you believe no one on the current LV staff knows or cares about such analyses? I thought analytics had pretty much premade sports at every level and wouldn't have imagined that Coach Caldwell and her staff would be behind in that regard.

I think they do but the team was sure not focused on what the coaches want in the NC St game. So if their not focused or prepared that goes back to the coaches to take the blame. Were supposed to be playing a win the possessions game and that cannot happen if you are fouling 13 more times and your allowing second and third chance shots on so many of the opponents possessions. So we have to play the way we need to play to make it all happen and we definitely are not based on game one. Regardless of turnovers which you cannot always win because the guards are just to excellent you can avoid fouling and you can definitely rebound misses. Poor showing of what is being taught game one.

 

[Volfan2012]

Seeing a couple few easy shots and concluding that we shouldn't press is like seeing a pick 6 in a football game and concluding that we shouldn't pass, as a general principle.

When talking about what we should do, you can't take the negativ and ignore the positiv, tempting as that may be.

We should definitely press, but sometimes the press has to be a slow them down press try to get them in a short shot clock. Sometimes teams have guards that are just to good to trap. The trap against top guards is a gamble that you lose more times than you win. It is going to work against ETSU we'll turn them over plenty. Sometimes against the better teams you have to win the possessions with rebounding and winning the foul line. Just impossible to build up a 20 shot advantage over some teams, but if you can do ten still should have a better chance to win.

In the NC St game it was 86 to 84 with Tennessee getting 77 shots and NC St 76. Both teams very close in percentage 39.5 to 39 They clearly won the game at the free throw line 15 to 8. Not supposed to happen were supposed to win the free throw line in this system. Turnovers Tennessee 11 NC St 10 we could not turn them over, but we didn't have to foul. Board play 48 to 48 so in this game it came down to fouling and that is how we lost this one. So the lesson learned is to play defense without fouling. We have to get better on the boards cause we need to be able to win there and a lot of times your not going to be able to create turnovers against elite teams.

 

[RetroVol]

One of my most influential coaching mentors had an maxim he use to say to me after a close battle :
"Players win and lose battles of 5 points or more, coaches win or lose battles of 4 or less"

CKC’s record prior to coming to UT in games where regulation ended with 4 points or less separating the teams

2023-24 2-1 (Marshall)

2022-23 1-1

2021-22 1-0

2020-21 2-1

2019-20 1-3

2018-19 1-1

2017-18 3-0

2016-17 0-2

CUMLATIVE 11-9 (8 seasons, avg = 2.5 games per year)

COMMENT: First observation: if this metric is right, the CKC had overwhelming talent at Glenville State and Marshall. Second observation: this metric results in a very small sample size and ignores the influence of CKC's approach on simply overwhelming so many teams.

CKC coached more such games last year than in any year in her career, and I'd argue that the point to be taken from those games was that she had Tennessee in them in the first place. If, in fact, she has things to learn about winning such games, then will believe that she will learn, adjust, and succeed until she proves otherwise.

 

[vols90]

Beating a dead horse, I know...but I looked at the box score for the exhibition game between NC State and Maryland. Pierre fouled out and Trygger had 4 fouls. Yet against us, Pierre only had 1 foul while Trygger had 0. I know it's not the same game and matchups are different, etc...but there's just too much inconsistency in officiating. That isn't what lost us the game, but it sure didn't help.

 

[madtownvol]

No Spearman is NOT our best big, all she does is take bad shots and turn the ball over as a senior i would rather live with a freshman making those mistakes to learn from.
Spearman doesn't understand if my shot is not falling crash the boards be a presence on defense to effect the game. She gave up 2 out of bounds plays for easy points or foul.

Most of those easy layups when State big was left alone in the press guess who was guarding her?


Latham should of got more minutes than Spearman
Wolf was in foul trouble all game never got a chance to get in a flow.

People have been predicting that Zee was going to have an AA type season but one bad opening game and it’s over for her? Nah! Zee is two inches taller than Latham and has a bigger wingspan. Against more and more teams that have 6’5 and up posts, her size and athleticism will be essential.

 

[madtownvol]

That simplification isn't quite right. There's a bias toward pressing because if once you account for all (a) opponent turnovers (b) opponent easy shots and (c) Tennessee easy shots off backcourt pressure, the remainder, (d) has more Tennessee possessions than opponent possessions.

I'll give an example. Let's say our opponent takes 10 shots that we'd categorize as "easy", making 8 of them. Let's say Tennessee forces 20 opponent turnovers. And let's say that 3 of those turnovers are steals which turn into easy points.

In that particular sample, the score is

Tennessee - 6
Opponent - 16

So -10? But consider (d), which is every other possession besides the 33 that I described in (a)(b)(c). 30 of those possessions are opponent possessions (20 turnovers + 10 high success transition shots) and only 3 are Tennessee possessions (the 3 scoop-n-scores)

If we make the assumptions that both teams are going to score 0.9 points per possession, and take into account that Tennessee has 77 possessions remaining, but Opponent has only 50 possessions remaining, then we find that in sample (d) alone, the score is

Tennessee (0.9 * 77) = 69
Opponent (0.9 * 50) = 45

Which would give a final score of

Tennessee - 75
Opponent - 61

The numbers here are just made up on the spot, and could certainly be scrutinized to be more realistic, but they serve to make the point that many people wil tend to overstate the pain of giving up an "easy 2" while understating the reward of generating an extra turnover, which are approximately equal in relativ value. There's different ways to frame it, but all that matters is that it's the foundation of a successful gameplan, and it's why we don't lose by much very often, and why we win by a heck of a lot a decent bit.

Like many complex mathematical arguments (and your analysis reads more like an economics theorem, which I do appreciate), we have a lot of "Ceteris paribus" assumptions. But, yes in this hypothetical scenario, the press works great!!

Against NCST, they actually won the TO battle (11 to 10) and took on less shot (76 to 77) but made the same number of FGs (30) and shot and made 7 more FTS. So, the press in this game seemed to be a wash but, I will give you, maybe it was the press that allowed the LVs to stay close but maybe over pressing allowed NCST to stay close to a team that should have dominated the game. This conundrum will be settled over the course of the season I suppose.

In hindsight, I think the most telling single stat was the LVs shooting 9-33 at the 3pt line whereas NCST went 5-17. That difference equate to a four point edge across the 30 shots both teams made but the LVs but it took a lot possessions to gain that margin and it was erased by the FT margin difference.

So too many fouls and poor 3 pt shooting seemed to be the most clear cut differentiators. If the LVs had shot 40% from the 3 point line (i.e., 13 for 33), they win the point battle under the current game scenario but making more shots also lets the defense get set and places more pressure on NCST who had otherwise turned some of these missed shots into easy transition points.

In hindsight, a bad shooting night had as much to do with this close loss as any other factor. Given the 3 ball is a big part of the scheme, having a chance to win the game in the final stretch, despite that, maybe is not so bad.

 

[chuckiepoo]

People have been predicting that Zee was going to have an AA type season but one bad opening game and it’s over for her? Nah! Zee is two inches taller than Latham and has a bigger wingspan. Against more and more teams that have 6’5 and up posts, her size and athleticism will be essential.

Alexus Dye. Sometimes ya just to play with heart. Zee will recover. Give her a minute…

 

[volbabyvol]

People have been predicting that Zee was going to have an AA type season but one bad opening game and it’s over for her? Nah! Zee is two inches taller than Latham and has a bigger wingspan. Against more and more teams that have 6’5 and up posts, her size and athleticism will be essential.

But she doesn't use her size like a true big standing around the 3 point line... 6'5 and wing span is of no use.

Let's come back to the table after we face UCLA

 

[lvocd]

But it's not a once in a while big play that's hurting us. I see it more as constantly being picked at with successful short passes over the middle leading to scoring drives. At what point if any do you adjust that defense? If the negatives are clearly outweighing the positives and that situation is not likely to change within the game, is it giving up to make the adjustment or do you ignore the needed adjustment in favor of devotion to the system?

Honestly, once an opponent successfully makes those short passes and then easily scores, we make it easier and easier for them to do it as each time they do it they grow more and more confident, while we grow less and less so. At least that's the way it looks to me.

Kim needs to switch it up once it becomes obvious the opponent has begun to be grateful to know what's coming and can basically run a press-breaking drill over and over instead of ever having to make adjustments.

 

[Volfan2012]

Honestly, once an opponent successfully makes those short passes and then easily scores, we make it easier and easier for them to do it as each time they do it they grow more and more confident, while we grow less and less so. At least that's the way it looks to me.

Kim needs to switch it up once it becomes obvious the opponent has begun to be grateful to know what's coming and can basically run a press-breaking drill over and over instead of ever having to make adjustments.

What could've been if they had not got those first quarter four easy baskets or 13 more fouls to win the foul line by 7. That is 15 points we gave up not even guarding anyone.

 

[chuckiepoo]

Such wringing of hands. Mercy! Is it possible we just met a contender?

I saw a well deserved tip of the cap to Wes Moore. Kudos to that poster. I may have missed the other posts congratulating the Pack on a well played game… i’ll wait for feedback on this one.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be scoreboard watching NC State, for sure, as we trudge our own path.

 

[UT Challenger]

I rewatched the last 6 minutes or so of this game....Prawl gets slung to the floor, after the NCS player's hand slips from the ball and grabs her arm and sends her to the floor...No call...

A short time later, Barker gets physically slung to the floor by Trygger and once again, no foul...The female ref was watching about 6 feet away...

Coach Kim needed to take a Technical and defend her girls...There was no way we were going to win that game...But damn, don't get the hell knocked out of you and do nothing...The next set of refs know they can get away with whatever they want against our girls.

Not a good night for us in too many ways....

I said the same thing about CKC last year. You have to let your players know that the officiating is one sided and you see it. Players get frustrated when they are getting fouled but no whistle is being blown. One part of CKC 's coaching I would like to see better this year.

 

[VolBall09]

But she doesn't use her size like a true big standing around the 3 point line... 6'5 and wing span is of no use.

Let's come back to the table after we face UCLA

We play a 5 out offense ding dong.

 

[DeerPark12]

I don’t think y’all are going to like me this year! this was an incredibly frustrating game to watch and I won’t repeat much of what’s already been said, but Kim can’t sit on the sideline looking like a deer in headlights! These next few games, I hope to see COACHING improvements, ADJUSTMENTS, otherwise I wholeheartedly believe UCLA will be a blowout for us!

And NC State isn’t even gooodddddd!

NC State isn't good? Pierre in the frontcourt makes them elite.

 

[chuckiepoo]

..watching this replay is rough… :

Debbie Antonelli

Hall of Famer Debbie Antonelli is a men’s and women’s college basketball analyst for ESPN and ACC Network and one of the most influential voices in the women’s game as a standout player, marketing executive and broadcaster for nearly four decades.

espnpressroom.com

 

[BruisedOrange]

..watching this replay is rough… :

Debbie Antonelli

Hall of Famer Debbie Antonelli is a men’s and women’s college basketball analyst for ESPN and ACC Network and one of the most influential voices in the women’s game as a standout player, marketing executive and broadcaster for nearly four decades.

espnpressroom.com

Did ESPN (they hate us) switch up the link on ya? What replay?

 

[chuckiepoo]

Did ESPN (they hate us) switch up the link on ya? What replay?

I watched a random site on the youtube.com stream that had the full game. Never saw @Freak ‘s.